Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Ocean sprawl: challenges and opportunities for biodiversity management in a changing world.

The last few decades have seen rapid proliferation of hard artificial structures (e.g., energy infra-structure, aquaculture, coastal defences) in the marine environment: ocean sprawl. The replacement of natural, often sedimentary, substrata with hard substrata has altered the distribution of species, particularly non-indigenous species, and can facilitate the assisted migration of native species at risk from climate change. This has been likened to urbanization as a driver of global biotic homogenization in the marine environment—the process by which species invasions and extinctions increase the genetic, taxonomic, or functional similarity of communities at local, regional, and global scales. Ecological engineering research showed that small-scale engineering interventions can have a significant positive effect on the biodiversity of artificial structures, promoting more diverse and resilient communities on local scales. This knowledge can be applied to the design of multifunctional structures that provide a range of ecosystem services. In coastal regions, hybrid designs can work with nature to combine hard and soft approaches to coastal defence in a more environmentally sensitive manner. The challenge now is to manage ocean sprawl with the dual goal of supporting human populations and activities, simultaneously strengthening ecosystem resilience using an ecosystem- based approach.