Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

Birth, life and death of a cyclonic eddy in the Southern Ocean

The ACC is a climatically relevant frontal structure of global importance that regularly develops instabilities which grow into meanders that eventually evolve into long-lived cyclonic eddies. These eddies exhibit sustain primary productivity that can last several months fuelled by local resupply of nutrients. During April-May 2015 we conducted an intensive field experiment in the Southern Ocean (SMILES) where we sampled and tracked an ACC meander as it developed into an eddy and later vanished some 90 days later. The meander and later eddy physical characteristics were observed with a combination of high resolution hydrography, ADCP and turbulence observations in addition to surface and depth resolved biogeochemical observations of nutrients and phytoplankton. The life and death of the eddy was subsequently tracked through ARGO, BIO-ARGO and remote sensing.