Is there a connection between high transport of water through the Rockall Trough and ecological changes in the North Sea?

Changes in the ecosystem of the North Sea may occur as pronounced inter-annual and step-wise shifts as well as gradual trends. Marked inter-annual shifts have occurred at least twice in the last two decades, the late 1980s and the late 1990s, that appear to reflect an increased inflow of oceanic water and species. Numerical modelling has demonstrated a link between altered rates of inflow of oceanic water into the northern North Sea and a regime shift after 1988. In 1989 and 1997 oceanic species not normally found in the North Sea were observed there, suggesting pulses of oceanic water had entered the basin and triggered the subsequent ecosystem change. The oceanic water has origins mainly west of Britain in the Rockall Trough, where the long-term mean volume transport is around 3.7Sv northwards (1Sv=10 super(6)m super(3)s super(1)), but in early 1989 and early 1998 was observed to be more than twice the mean value, reaching over 7Sv. These periods of high transport coinciding with the inferred pulses of oceanic water into the North Sea suggest a connection through the continental shelf edge current. Copyright 2001 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery

After 1987, Phytoplankton Colour (a visual estimate of chlorophyll) measured on samples taken by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) in the North Sea increased substantially, both in level and seasonal extent, compared to earlier years since 1946. Many species of phytoplankton and zooplankton showed marked changes in abundance at about the same time. These events coincided with a large increase in catches of the western stock of the horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus L.) in the northern North Sea reflecting a northerly expansion of the stock along the shelf edge from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea after 1987. Using a 3D hydrodynamic model, with input from measured wind parameters, monthly transport of oceanic water into the North Sea has been calculated for the period 1976–1994, integrated for a section from Orkney to Shetland to Norway. A substantial increase in oceanic inflow occurred in the winter months, December to March, from 1988. Higher sea surface temperatures were also measured after 1987 especially in spring and summer months. These biological and physical events may be a response to observed changes in pressure distribution over the North Atlantic. From 1988 onwards, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores, increased to the highest positive level observed in this century. Positive NAO anomalies are associated with stronger and more southerly tracks of the westerly winds and higher temperatures in western Europe. These changing wind distributions may have led to an increase in the northerly advection of water along the western edge of the European shelf and may have assisted the migration of the horse mackerel. This study is possibly a unique demonstration of a correlation between three different trophic levels of a marine ecosystem and hydrographic and atmospheric events at decadal and regional scales. The results emphasise the importance of maintaining into the future long term programmes such as the CPR.

Arctic boreal plankton species in the Northwest Atlantic

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has sampled regularly in the Northwest Atlantic since the early 1960s. Over the last decade there has been a dramatic increase in the abundance of a number of arctic boreal plankton species, notably Calanus hyperboreus (Kroyer), Calanus glacialis (Jaschnov), and Ceratium arcticum, and a southerly shift of the copepod C. hyperboreus in the CPR survey. In 1998, C. hyperboreus was recorded at its farthest position south in the survey, 39 degrees N, off the Georges Bank shelf edge. Other studies have reported similar parallel biological responses on three trophic levels. During the late 1990s, production of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) has been at a high, a direct response to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The increase in abundance of these species, up to four standard deviations from the long-term mean, is linked to variability in the hydrography of the area and the driving climatic processes of the North Atlantic.

Climate-related increases in jellyfish frequency suggest a more gelatinous future for the North Sea

Data obtained since 1958 from the continuous plankton recorder show an increasing occurrence of jellyfish in the central North Sea that is positively related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic inflow to the northern North Sea. Since 1970, jellyfish frequency has been also significantly negatively correlated with mean annual pH, independent of NAO trends. Jellyfish frequency increased in the mid-1980s, coincident with the reported regime shift in the North Sea and tracking trends in phytoplankton color. As models produced under all climate-change scenarios indicate a move toward a positive NAO, and pH of the oceans is predicted to decrease with rising CO2, we suggest that jellyfish frequency will increase over the next 100 yr.

On the roles of cell size and trophic strategy in North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate communities

We have examined the inter- and intra-group seasonal succession of 113 diatom and dinoflagellate taxa, as surveyed by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) in the North Atlantic, by grouping taxa according to two key functional traits: cell size (mg C cell21) and trophic strategy (photoautotrophy, mixotrophy, or heterotrophy). Mixotrophic dinoflagellates follow photoautotrophic diatoms but precede their obligate heterotrophic counterparts in the succession because of the relative advantages afforded by photosynthesizing when light and nutrients are available in spring. The mean cell size of the sampled diatoms is smallest in the summer, likely because of the higher specific nutrient affinity of smaller relative to larger cells. Contrastingly, we hypothesize that mixotrophy diminishes the size selection based on nutrient limitation and accounts for the lack of a seasonal size shift among surveyed dinoflagellates. Relatively small, heterotrophic dinoflagellates (mg C cell21 , 1023) peak after other, larger dinoflagellates, in part because of the increased abundance of their small prey during nutrientdeplete summer months. The largest surveyed diatoms (mg C cell21 . 1022) bloom later than others, and we hypothesize that this may be because of their relatively slow maximum potential growth rates and high internal nutrient storage, as well as to the slower predation of these larger cells. The new trait database and analysis presented here helps translate the taxonomic information of the CPR survey into metrics that can be directly compared with trait-based models.

Unanticipated biological changes and global warming

Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-climatological variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was negatively correlated with the mean abundance of one of the subarctic key species Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea. This correlation was thought to have broken down in 1996, however, the timing has never been tested statistically. The present study revisits this unanticipated change and reveals that the correlation did not break down in 1996 as originally proposed but earlier, at the time of an abrupt ecosystem shift in the North Sea in the 1980s. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrate that the correlation between the NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance is modulated by the thermal regime of the North Sea, which in turn covaries positively with global temperature anomalies. This study thereby provides evidence that global climate change is likely to alter some empirical relationships found in the past between species abundance or the ecosystem state and large-scale natural sources of hydro-climatological variability. A theory is proposed to explain how this might happen. These unanticipated changes, also called ‘surprises’ in climatic research, are a direct consequence of the complexity of both climatic and biological systems. In this period of rapid climate change, it is therefore hazardous to integrate meteo-oceanic indices such as the NAO in models used in the management of living resources, as it has been sometimes attempted in the past.

The Mediterranean Sea Regime Shift at the End of the 1980s, and Intriguing Parallelisms with Other European Basins

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.

The mid-eighties regime shift and appendicularian abundance

There is accumulating evidence suggesting that a regime shift occurred in the North Atlantic during the mid-eighties. This shift has been reported primarily from Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data as a stepwise change in plankton abundance and copepod community structure. Here we analyse the CPR data for appendicularian abundance to show that a similar stepwise increase occurred in the abundance of appendicularians during the mid-eighties. Furthermore, we compare these results to data recorded by other zooplankton time series programmes to show that a similar abrupt increase in appendicularian abundance during the mid-early eighties has also been recorded in other areas. The fact that such a change occurred at locations so distant apart as Helgoland Roads in the North Sea or the White Sea in the Arctic suggests that these changes have a global origin. The strong dependence of appendicularian phenology with temperature points out to direct links to global climate change.

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000–2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict.

A long-term chlorophyll dataset reveals regime shift in North Sea phytoplankton biomass unconnected to nutrient levels

During the 1980s, a rapid increase in the Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI), a semiquantitative visual estimate of algal biomass, was observed in the North Sea as part of a regionwide regime shift. Two new data sets created from the relationship between the PCI and SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (Chl a) quantify differences in the previous and current regimes for both the anthropogenically affected coastal North Sea and the comparatively unaffected open North Sea. The new regime maintains a 13% higher Chl a concentration in the open North Sea and a 21% higher concentration in coastal North Sea waters. However, the current regime has lower total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations than the previous regime, although the molar N: P ratio in coastal waters is now well above the Redfield ratio and continually increasing. Besides becoming warmer, North Sea waters are also becoming clearer (i.e., less turbid), thereby allowing the normally light-limited coastal phytoplankton to more effectively utilize lower concentrations of nutrients. Linear regression analyses indicate that winter Secchi depth and sea surface temperature are the most important predictors of coastal Chl a, while Atlantic inflow is the best predictor of open Chl a; nutrient concentrations are not a significant predictor in either model. Thus, despite decreasing nutrient concentrations, Chl a continues to increase, suggesting that climatic variability and water transparency may be more important than nutrient concentrations to phytoplankton production at the scale of this study.

Lagrangian evolution of DMS during the Southern Ocean gas exchange experiment: The effects of vertical mixing and biological community shift

Concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS) and its precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) are highly variable in time and space. What is driving the variability in DMS(P), and can those variability be explained by physical processes and changes in the biological community? During the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment (SO GasEx) in the austral fall of 2008, two 3He/SF6 labeled patches were created in the surface water. SF6 and DMS were surveyed continuously in a Lagrangian framework, while direct measurements of air-sea exchange further constrained the gas budgets. Turbulent diffusivity at the base of the mixed layer was estimated from SF6 profiles and used to calculate the vertical fluxes of DMS and nutrients. Increasing mixed layer nutrient concentrations due to mixing were associated with a shift in the phytoplankton community structure, which in turned likely affected the sulfur dynamics on timescales of days. DMS concentration as well as air-sea DMS flux appeared to be decoupled from the DMSP concentration, possibly due to grazing and bacterial DMS production. Contrary to expectations, in an environment with high winds and modest productivity, physical processes (air-sea exchange, photochemistry, vertical mixing) only accounted for a small fraction of DMS loss from the surface water. Among the DMS sinks, inferred biological consumption most likely dominated during SO GasEx.

Fundamental shift in vitamin B12 eco-physiology of a model alga demonstrated by experimental evolution.

A widespread and complex distribution of vitamin requirements exists over the entire tree of life, with many species having evolved vitamin dependence, both within and between different lineages. Vitamin availability has been proposed to drive selection for vitamin dependence, in a process that links an organism's metabolism to the environment, but this has never been demonstrated directly. Moreover, understanding the physiological processes and evolutionary dynamics that influence metabolic demand for these important micronutrients has significant implications in terms of nutrient acquisition and, in microbial organisms, can affect community composition and metabolic exchange between coexisting species. Here we investigate the origins of vitamin dependence, using an experimental evolution approach with the vitamin B(12)-independent model green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. In fewer than 500 generations of growth in the presence of vitamin B(12), we observe the evolution of a B(12)-dependent clone that rapidly displaces its ancestor. Genetic characterization of this line reveals a type-II Gulliver-related transposable element integrated into the B(12)-independent methionine synthase gene (METE), knocking out gene function and fundamentally altering the physiology of the alga.