2 resultados para Linear coregionalization model

em Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA)


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A one-dimensional, non-linear numerical model is used to investigate the tidally averaged frictional stress and set-up of water level due to tidal asymmetry in the Severn Estuary; these quantities depend on the overtides in the region. A linearized model of the overtides is applied to calculations of the M4 currents in order to delineate the mechanisms responsible for their generation. The relative importance of individual non-linear mechanisms to the tidally averaged stress and set-up is determined; these mechanisms are interactions between tidal flow and changes in depth or breadth over a cross-section, frictional interaction between the tidal flow and Stokes drift, interaction between the tidal fluctuations in water depth and frictional retardation and non-linear advection.

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Recent recruitment failure of lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus, a key prey fish in the North Sea, followed by several years of low spawning stock biomass, prompted us to investigate factors influencing the recruitment of this species. We tested 2 hypotheses that relate to ecological mechanisms of recruitment regulation in lesser sandeel: (1) a positive spawning stock–recruitment relationship is decoupled in years associated with high abundances of age-1 sandeels and (2) the survival success of early larvae depends specifically on the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus and not C. helgolandicus. The findings of the present study supported both hypotheses and resulted in a multiple linear recruitment model with pronounced predictive capabilities. The model includes interactions between age-1 abundance and spawning stock biomass, plus the effect of C. finmarchicus abundance, and it explained around 65% of the inter-annual variation in recruitment in contrast to only 12% by a traditional Ricker curve. We argue that early egg production in C. finmarchicus supports the survival of larvae, and that climate-generated shifts in the Calanus species composition lead to a mismatch in timing between food availability and the early life history of lesser sandeels.