Heavy metals in the Fal estuary, Cornwall: A study of long term contamination by mining waste and its effects on estuarine organisms. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 2

The Fal Estuary System in West Cornwall has, over many centuries, received inputs of heavy metals from various mining activities. In this context its most important tributary is the Carnon River. Analyses of organisms from the Fal Estuary have shown that some species contain abnormally high concentrations of Cu, Zn and As, especially those living in Restronguet Creek.

Long-term effects of ocean warming on the prokaryotic community: evidence from the vibrios

The long-term effects of ocean warming on prokaryotic communities are unknown because of lack of historical data. We overcame this gap by applying a retrospective molecular analysis to the bacterial community on formalin-fixed samples from the historical Continuous Plankton Recorder archive, which is one of the longest and most geographically extensive collections of marine biological samples in the world. We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance within the plankton-associated bacterial community of the North Sea, where an unprecedented increase in bathing infections related to these bacteria was recently reported. Among environmental variables, increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases.

Long-Term Oceanographic and Ecological Research in the Western English Channel

Long-term research in the western English Channel, undertaken by the marine laboratories in Plymouth, is described and details of survey methods, sites, and time series given in this chapter. Major findings are summarized and their limitations outlined. Current research, with recent reestablishment and expansion of many sampling programmes, is presented, and possible future approaches are indicated. These unique long-term data sets provide an environmental baseline for predicting complex ecological responses to local, regional, and global environmental change. Between 1888 and the present, investigations have been carried out into the physical, chemical, and biological components (ranging from plankton and fish to benthic and intertidal assemblages) of the western English Channel ecosystem. The Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom has performed the main body of these observations. More recent contributions come from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, now the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, dating from 1957; the Institute for Marine Environmental Research, from 1974 to 1987; and the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, which was formed by amalgamation of the Institute for Marine Environmental Research and part of the Marine Biological Association, from 1988. Together, these contributions constitute a unique data series; one of the longest and most comprehensive samplings of environmental and marine biological variables in the world. Since the termination of many of these time series in 1987-1988 during a reorganisation of UK marine research, there has been a resurgence of interest in long-term environmental change. Many programmes have been restarted and expanded with support from several agencies. The observations span significant periods of warming (1921-1961; 1985-present) and cooling (1962-1980). During these periods of change, the abundance of key species underwent dramatic shifts. The first period of warming saw changes in zooplankton, pelagic fish, and larval fish, including the collapse of an important herring fishery. During later periods of change, shifts in species abundances have been reflected in other assemblages, such as the intertidal zone and the benthic fauna. Many of these changes appear to be related to climate, manifested as temperature changes, acting directly or indirectly. The hypothesis that climate is a forcing factor is widely supported today and has been reinforced by recent studies that show responses of marine organisms to climatic attributes such as the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The long-term data also yield important insights into the effects of anthropogenic disturbances such as fisheries exploitation and pollution. Comparison of demersal fish hauls over time highlights fisheries effects not only on commercially important species but also on the entire demersal community. The effects of acute ("Torrey Canyon" oil spill) and chronic (tributyltin [TBT] antifoulants) pollution are clearly seen in the intertidal records. Significant advances in diverse scientific disciplines have been generated from research undertaken alongside the long-term data series.

Is observed variability in the long-term results of the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey a response to climate change?

In the more than 50 years that the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has operated on a regular monthly basis in the north-east Atlantic and North Sea, large changes have been witnessed in the planktonic ecosystem. These changes have taken the form of long-term trends in abundance for certain species or stepwise changes for others, and in many cases are correlated with a mode of climatic variability in the North Atlantic, either: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basin-scale atmospheric alteration of the pressure field between the Azores high pressure cell and the Icelandic Low; or (2) the Gulf Stream Index (GSI), which measures the latitudinal position of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Recent work has shown that the changes in the GSI are coupled with the NAO and Pacific Southern Oscillation with a 2 year lag. The plankton variability is also possibly linked to changes observed in the distribution and flux of water masses in the surface, intermediate and deep waters of the North Atlantic. For example, in the last two decades, the extent and location of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, Labrador Sea Intermediate Water and Norwegian Sea intermediate and upper-layer water has altered considerably. This paper discusses the extent to which observed changes in plankton abundance and distribution may be linked to this basin-scale variability in hydrodynamics. The results are also placed within the context of global climate warming and the possible effects of the observed melting of Arctic permafrost and sea ice on the subpolar North Atlantic.

Long-term changes in the pelagos, benthos and fisheries of the North Sea

Pronounced changes have occurred in the fisheries, plankton and benthos of the North Sea over the last five decades. Attribution of the relative contribution of anthropogenic versus natural hydrometeorological modulation to these changes is still unclear. As a background a summary history of our understanding of the state of health of the North Sea is outlined. We then focus on two contrasting periods in the North Sea, one between 1978-82 (cold) and the other post 1987 (warm) when pronounced alterations in many ecosystem characteristics occurred. The scale of the changes in the second of these periods is sufficiently large and wide ranging for it to have been termed a regime shift. A combination of local, regional and far field hydrometeorological forcing, and in particular variability in oceanic inflow, is believed to be responsible for the observed changes. Finally attention is drawn to the poor status of North Sea fish stocks where 7 stocks are documented as being fished outside safe biological limits. This situation is primarily believed to be a consequence of overfishing, but may have been exacerbated by environmental change.

Long-term responses of North Atlantic calcifying plankton to climate change

The global increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is potentially threatening marine biodiversity in two ways. First, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing global warming1. Second, carbon dioxide is altering sea water chemistry, making the ocean more acidic2. Although temperature has a cardinal influence on all biological processes from the molecular to the ecosystem level3, acidification might impair the process of calcification or exacerbate dissolution of calcifying organisms4. Here, we show however that North Atlantic calcifying plankton primarily responded to climate-induced changes in temperatures during the period 1960–2009, overriding the signal from the effects of ocean acidification. We provide evidence that foraminifers, coccolithophores, both pteropod and nonpteropod molluscs and echinoderms exhibited an abrupt shift circa 1996 at a time of a substantial increase in temperature5 and that some taxa exhibited a poleward movement in agreement with expected biogeographical changes under sea temperature warming6,7. Although acidification may become a serious threat to marine calcifying organisms, our results suggest that over the study period the primary driver of North Atlantic calcifying planktonwas oceanic temperature.

Long-term changes in the meroplankton of the North Sea

Data from the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey collected in the late-1940s to early-1960s indicated that the abundance of decapod larvae was low and the seasonal peak of abundance was late following cold winters. The phenological effect of temperature was shown to be consistent with relationships between both geographical and interannual patterns of variation. Analyses of CPR data collected from the 1940s to the present day reveal large-scale long-term changes in the abundance and phenology of the North Sea meroplankton. Echinoderm larvae, whose peak abundance has advanced by 47 days, show the greatest shift in timing. Echinoderm larvae have also increased in abundance to become the most abundant taxon in North Sea CPR samples. Genetic and morphological analyses of CPR samples show that the variations in echinoderm larvae are mainly attributable to an increasing abundance and earlier occurrence of the larvae of a resident species, Echinocardium cordatum, rather than a change in species composition. The remarkable scale of the changes in abundance and phenology of the meroplankton, which are greater than those seen in the holoplankton, has stimulated the development of further research into the causes and effects of these changes.

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea; evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10–20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.

Long-term annual primary production in the Ulleung Basin as a biological hot spot in the East/Japan Sea

Although the Ulleung Basin is an important biological hot spot in East/Japan Sea (hereafter the East Sea), very limited knowledge for seasonal and annual variations in the primary productivity exists. In this study, a recent decadal trend of primary production in the Ulleung Basin was analyzed based on MODIS-derived monthly primary production for a better annual production budget. Based on the MODIS-derived primary production, the mean daily primary productivity was 766.8 mg C m-2 d-1 (SD=+/- 196.7 mg C m-2 d-1) and the annual primary productivity was 280.2 g C m-2 yr-1 (SD=+/- 14.9 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Ulleung Basin during the study period. The monthly contributions of primary production were not largely variable among different months, and a relatively small interannual production variability was also observed in the Ulleung Basin, which indicates that the Ulleung Basin is a sustaining biologically productive region called as hot spot in the East Sea. However, a significant recent decline in the annual primary production was observed in the Ulleung Basin after 2006. Although no strong possibilities were found in this study, the current warming sea surface temperature and a negative phase PDO index were suggested for the recent declining primary production. For a better understanding of subsequent effects on marine ecosystems, more intensive interdisciplinary field studies will be required in the Ulleung Basin.

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Long-term modifications of coastal defences enhance marine biodiversity

Realization that hard coastal infrastructures support lower biodiversity than natural habitats has prompted a wealth of research seeking to identify design enhancements offering ecological benefits. Some studies showed that artificial structures could be modified to increase levels of diversity. Most studies, however, only considered the short-term ecological effects of such modifications, even though reliance on results from short-term studies may lead to serious misjudgements in conservation. In this study, a seven-year experiment examined how the addition of small pits to otherwise featureless seawalls may enhance the stocks of a highly-exploited limpet. Modified areas of the seawall supported enhanced stocks of limpets seven years after the addition of pits. Modified areas of the seawall also supported a community that differed in the abundance of littorinids, barnacles and macroalgae compared to the controls. Responses to different treatments (numbers and size of pits) were species-specific and, while some species responded directly to differences among treatments, others might have responded indirectly via changes in the distribution of competing species. This type of habitat enhancement can have positive long-lasting effects on the ecology of urban seascapes. Understanding of species interactions could be used to develop a rule-based approach to enhance biodiversity.

Long-term modifications of coastal defences enhance marine biodiversity

Realization that hard coastal infrastructures support lower biodiversity than natural habitats has prompted a wealth of research seeking to identify design enhancements offering ecological benefits. Some studies showed that artificial structures could be modified to increase levels of diversity. Most studies, however, only considered the short-term ecological effects of such modifications, even though reliance on results from short-term studies may lead to serious misjudgements in conservation. In this study, a seven-year experiment examined how the addition of small pits to otherwise featureless seawalls may enhance the stocks of a highly-exploited limpet. Modified areas of the seawall supported enhanced stocks of limpets seven years after the addition of pits. Modified areas of the seawall also supported a community that differed in the abundance of littorinids, barnacles and macroalgae compared to the controls. Responses to different treatments (numbers and size of pits) were species-specific and, while some species responded directly to differences among treatments, others might have responded indirectly via changes in the distribution of competing species. This type of habitat enhancement can have positive long-lasting effects on the ecology of urban seascapes. Understanding of species interactions could be used to develop a rule-based approach to enhance biodiversity.