Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

New genus and two new species of the family Ethmolaimidae (Nematoda: Chromadorida), found in two different cold-seep environments

This study describes a new genus Dystomanema gen. nov. with two new species, D. cadizensis sp. nov. and D. brandtae sp. nov. within the family Ethmolaimidae, subfamily Neotonchinae, based on specimens from two low-activity cold-seep environments at distant geographical locations. The new genus was first identified in samples from the Darwin mud volcano (1100 m depth) in the Gulf of Cadiz and later on also found in samples from a low-activity seep in the Larsen B embayment (820m depth) off the eastern Antarctic Peninsula. Until now, the family Ethmolaimidae contained nine genera: Ethmolaimus and Paraethmolaimus in the subfamily Ethmolaiminae, and Comesa, Filitonchoides, Filitonchus, Gomphionchus, Gomphionema, Nannolaimus, and Neothonchus in the subfamily Neotonchinae. The most important family characteristics are: an annulated cuticle bearing transverse rows of dots, cephalic sensilla arrangement of 6+6+4, a spiral amphid, an oesophagus with muscular posterior bulb, paired gonads and males with cup-shaped precloacal supplements. The new genus resembles Comesa and Neotonchus, but is typified by a ventrally displaced oral opening with three very small teeth that are easily overlooked. D. cadizensis gen. nov. sp. nov. is characterized by the 1401-2123 mu m long body; cuticle transversally striated with fine punctation; head conical; low lips; amphid spiralled 3 turns, oral opening ventrally displaced, male with outstretched testes; spicules of equal size; gubernaculum plate-like and ten to twelve conspicuous cup-shaped precloacal supplements with external longitudinal articulated flange. D. brandtae gen. nov. sp. nov. can be distinguished by the 2438-3280 mu m long body; cuticle transversally striated with fine punctuation; head conical; low lips; amphid spiraled 3+ turns; oral opening ventrally displaced; male with anterior testes outstretched and posterior one smaller and reflexed; spicules of equal size; gubernaculum plate-like and twenty conspicuous cup-shaped precloacal supplements with external longitudinal articulated flange. Notes on the ecology and habitat of the new genus are provided in light of its discovery in cold-seep environments.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.