Interannual variability of marine zooplankton and their environments: Within- and between-region comparisons

The work highlights the first Global Comparison of Zooplankton Time Series. ► Variation of the peak in abundance is affected by annual temperature anomalies. ► Results show no global-scale synchrony in zooplankton time-series. ► There are spatial autocorrelations over substantial distances (1000–3000 km). ► There remains considerable uncertainty about the relative causes of shifts in distributions.

Seasonality and interannual variability of the European Slope Current from 20 years of altimeter data compared with in situ measurements

The European Slope Current (SC) is a major section of the warm poleward flow from the Atlantic to the Arctic, which also moderates the exchange of heat, salt, nutrients and carbon between the deep ocean and the European shelf seas. The mean structure of the geostrophic flow, seasonality, interannual variability and long-term trend of SC are appraised with an unprecedented continuous 20-year satellite altimeter dataset. Comparisons with long term in situ data showed a maximum correlation of r2=0.51 between altimeter and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), with similar results for drogued buoy data. Mean geostrophic currents were appraised more comprehensively than previous attempts, and the paths of 4 branches of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and positions of 5 eddies in the region were derived quantitatively. A consistent seasonal cycle in the flow of the SC was found at all 8 sections along the European shelf slope, with maximum poleward flow in the winter and minimum in the summer. The seasonal difference in the altimetry current speed amounted to ~8-10 cm s-1 at the northern sections, but only ~5 cm s-1 on the Bay of Biscay slopes. This extended altimeter dataset indicates significant regional and seasonal variations, and has revealed new insights into the interannual variability of the SC. It is shown that there is a peak poleward flow at most positions along a ~2000 km stretch of the continental slope from Portugal to Scotland during 1995-1997, but this did not clearly relate to the extreme negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the winter of 1995-1996. The speed of the SC exhibited a long term decreasing trend of ~1% per year. By contrast the NAC showed no significant trend over the 20-year period. Major changes in the NAC occurred three times, and these changes followed decreases in the NAO index.

Variability in northwards extension of warm water copepods in the NE Pacific

The Continuous Plankton Recorder has been deployed in the NE Pacific on two intersecting transects since 2000. Many deployments included a temperature sensor providing in situ temperature data to supplement the species abundance data for 1300 samples. Twenty-nine copepod taxa were sufficiently abundant to examine their temperature-related distributions. Groups of warm- and cold-water species were identified, with overlapping distributions between 48 and 588N. Recent fluctuations in ocean climate, from the warmest year on record in 2005 to one of the coldest in decades in 2008, provided ideal conditions to observe temperature-related interannual variability. The abundance and northwards extension of warm water species were significantly positively correlated with mean annual temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The cold water species showed no correlations with temperature/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) within the study region; however, if the 4 years of sampling that extended south to 398N were examined separately, there was a strong relationship between temperature/PDO and the southern extent of subarctic copepods. Under warm ocean conditions, the range overlap of the two groups will increase as warm water species extend northwards, causing an increase in copepod diversity. Since warm water species are generally smaller and nutritionally poorer, this has implications for higher trophic levels

Decadal variability in biogeochemical models: Comparison with a 50-year ocean colour dataset

Assessing the skill of biogeochemical models to hindcast past variability is challenging, yet vital in order to assess their ability to predict biogeochemical change. However, the validation of decadal variability is limited by the sparsity of consistent, long-term biological datasets. The Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI) product from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey, which has been sampling the North Atlantic since 1948, is an example of such a dataset. Converting the PCI to chlorophyll values using SeaWiFS data allows a direct comparison with model output. Here we validate decadal variability in chlorophyll from the GFDL TOPAZ model. The model demonstrates skill at reproducing interannual variability, but cannot simulate the regime shifts evident in the PCI data. Comparison of the model output, data and climate indices highlights under-represented processes that it may be necessary to include in future biogeochemical models in order to accurately simulate decadal variability in ocean ecosystems.

Pattern and scale of variability among Northwest Atlantic Shelf plankton communities

Continuous plankton recorders (CPRs) have been used in the Northwest Atlantic for almost 50 years. While data collected by these surveys have provided valuable information on long-term variability in plankton populations, all previous analyses have been limited to only a portion of the geographic range of the available data. Here we present an analysis of the CPR data from the Mid Atlantic Bight to the Labrador Sea. Across this wide geographic range, we found many common associations among the taxa. In particular, the changes in most regions were strongly size structured, with small and medium copepods varying together and often positively related to indicators of phytoplankton abundance. The time series from nearby regions were strongly correlated; however, after 1990, the spatial pattern became more complex. During this period, several of the copepod taxa, noticeably Calanus finmarchicus and Centropages typicus, experienced a series of anomalies that appeared to propagate from northeast to southwest. Although the direction of propagation was consistent with the shelf circulation, the anomalies propagated at a rate much slower than typical current speeds. The timing of the copepod anomalies and their phase speed were similar in character to observed changes in salinity and the position of the Shelf Slope Front. The correspondence between the changes in the plankton community and changes in the physical environmental suggests that physical conditions are a strong driver of interannual variability in Northwest Atlantic Shelf ecosystems.

Variability in phytoplankton community structure in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation and implications for organic carbon flux

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a major mode of variability in the North Atlantic, dominating atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Here, we examine the phytoplankton community-structure response to the NAO using the Continuous Plankton Recorder data set. In the Northeast Atlantic, in the transition region between the gyres, variability in the relative influence of subpolar or subtropical-like conditions is reflected in the physical environment. During positive NAO periods, the region experiences subpolar-like conditions, with strong wind stress and deep mixed layers. In contrast, during negative NAO periods, the region shifts toward more subtropical-like conditions. Diatoms dominate the phytoplankton community in positive NAO periods, whereas in negative NAO periods, dinoflagellates outcompete diatoms. The implications for interannual variability in deep ocean carbon flux are examined using data from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain time-series station. Contrary to expectations, carbon flux to 3000 m is enhanced when diatoms are outcompeted by other phytoplankton functional types. Additionally, highest carbon fluxes were not associated with an increase in biomineral content, which implies that ballasting is not playing a dominant role in controlling the flux of material to the deep ocean in this region. In transition zones between gyre systems, phytoplankton populations can change in response to forcing induced by opposing NAO phases.

On the Nature of Temporal Variability of the Gulf Stream Path from 75° to 55°W

The response of the Gulf Stream (GS) system to atmospheric forcing is generally linked either to the basin-scale winds on the subtropical gyre or to the buoyancy forcing from the Labrador Sea. This study presents a multiscale synergistic perspective to describe the low-frequency response of the GS system. The authors identify dominant temporal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in known indices of the GS path, and in the observed GS latitudes along its path derived from sea surface height (SSH) contours over the period 1993-2013. The analysis suggests that the signature of interannual variability changes along the stream's path from 75 degrees to 55 degrees W. From its separation at Cape Hatteras to the west of 65 degrees W, the variability of the GS is mainly in the near-decadal (7-10 years) band, which is missing to the east of 60 degrees W, where a new interannual (4-5 years) band peaks. The latter peak (4-5 years) was missing to the west of 65 degrees W. The region between 65 degrees and 60 degrees W seems to be a transition region. A 2-3-yr secondary peak was pervasive in all time series, including that for the NAO. This multiscale response of the GS system is supported by results from a basin-scale North Atlantic model. The near-decadal response can be attributed to similar forcing periods in the NAO signal; however, the interannual variability of 4-5 years in the eastern segment of the GS path is as yet unexplained. More numerical and observational studies are warranted to understand such causality.

On the Nature of Temporal Variability of the Gulf Stream Path from 75° to 55°W

The response of the Gulf Stream (GS) system to atmospheric forcing is generally linked either to the basin-scale winds on the subtropical gyre or to the buoyancy forcing from the Labrador Sea. This study presents a multiscale synergistic perspective to describe the low-frequency response of the GS system. The authors identify dominant temporal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in known indices of the GS path, and in the observed GS latitudes along its path derived from sea surface height (SSH) contours over the period 1993-2013. The analysis suggests that the signature of interannual variability changes along the stream's path from 75 degrees to 55 degrees W. From its separation at Cape Hatteras to the west of 65 degrees W, the variability of the GS is mainly in the near-decadal (7-10 years) band, which is missing to the east of 60 degrees W, where a new interannual (4-5 years) band peaks. The latter peak (4-5 years) was missing to the west of 65 degrees W. The region between 65 degrees and 60 degrees W seems to be a transition region. A 2-3-yr secondary peak was pervasive in all time series, including that for the NAO. This multiscale response of the GS system is supported by results from a basin-scale North Atlantic model. The near-decadal response can be attributed to similar forcing periods in the NAO signal; however, the interannual variability of 4-5 years in the eastern segment of the GS path is as yet unexplained. More numerical and observational studies are warranted to understand such causality.

Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

Radiolaria: Major exporters of organic carbon to the deep ocean

Very large pulses of particulate organic matter intermittently sink to the deep waters of the open ocean in the Northeast Atlantic. These pulses, measured by moored sediment traps since 1989, can contribute up to 60% of the organic flux to 3000 m in a particular year and are thus a major cause of the variability in carbon sequestration from the atmosphere in the region. Pulses occur in the late summer and are characterized by material that is very rich in organic carbon but with low concentrations of the biominerals opal and calcite. A number of independent lines of evidence have been examined to determine the causes of these pulses: (1) Data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey show that in this region, radiolarian protozoans intermittently reach high abundances in the late summer just preceding organic pulses to depth. (2) CPR data also show that the interannual variability in radiolarian abundance since 1997 mirrors very closely the variability of deep ocean organic deposition. (3) The settling material collected in the traps displays a strong correlation between fecal pellets produced by radiolaria and the measured organic carbon flux. These all suggest that the pulses are mediated by radiolarians, a group of protozoans found throughout the world’s oceans and which are widely used by paleontologists to determine past climate conditions. Changes in the upper ocean community structure (between years and on longer timescales) may have profound effects on the ability of the oceans to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Past, present and future nutrient loads of the North Sea: causes and consequences

Comprehensive, aggregate nutrient budgets were established for two compartments of the North Sea, the shallow coastal and deeper open regions, and for three different periods, representing pre-eutrophication (∼1950), eutrophication (∼1990) and contemporary (∼2000) phases. The aim was to quantify the major budget components, to identify their sources of variability, to specify the anthropogenic components, and to draw implications for past and future policy. For all three periods, open North Sea budgets were dominated (75%) by fluxes from and to the North-East Atlantic; sediment exchange was of secondary importance (18%). For the coastal North Sea, fluxes during the eutrophication period were dominated by sediment exchange (49% of all inputs), followed by exchange with the open sea (21%), and anthropogenic inputs (19%). Between 1950 and 1990, N-loading of coastal waters increased by a factor of 1.62 and P-loading by 1.45. These loads declined after 1990. Interannual variability in Atlantic inflow was found to correspond to a variability of 11% in nutrient load to the open North Sea. Area-specific external loads of both the open and coastal North Sea were below Vollenweider-type critical loads when expressed relative to depth and flushing. External area-specific load of the coastal North Sea has declined since 1990 from 1.8 to about 1.4 g P m−2 y−1 in 2000, which is close to the estimate of 1.3 for 1950. N-load declined less, leading to an increase in N/P ratio.

Drivers and effects of Karenia mikimotoi blooms in the western English Channel

Naturally occurring red tides and harmful algal blooms (HABs) are of increasing importance in the coastal environment and can have dramatic effects on coastal benthic and epipelagic communities worldwide. Such blooms are often unpredictable, irregular or of short duration, and thus determining the underlying driving factors is problematic. The dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi is an HAB, commonly found in the western English Channel and thought to be responsible for occasional mass finfish and benthic mortalities. We analysed a 19-year coastal time series of phytoplankton biomass to examine the seasonality and interannual variability of K. mikimotoi in the western English Channel and determine both the primary environmental drivers of these blooms as well as the effects on phytoplankton productivity and oxygen conditions. We observed high variability in timing and magnitude of K. mikimotoi blooms, with abundances reaching >1000 cells mL�1 at 10 m depth, inducing up to a 12-fold increase in the phytoplankton carbon content of the water column. No long-term trends in the timing or magnitude of K. mikimotoi abundance were evident from the data. Key driving factors were identified as persistent summertime rainfall and the resultant input of low-salinity high-nutrient river water. The largest bloom in 2009 was associated with highest annual primary production and led to considerable oxygen depletion at depth, most likely as a result of enhanced biological breakdown of bloom material; however, this oxygen depletion may not affect zooplankton. Our data suggests that K. mikimotoi blooms are not only a key and consistent feature of western English Channel productivity, but importantly can potentially be predicted from knowledge of rainfall or river discharge.