Is observed variability in the long-term results of the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey a response to climate change?

In the more than 50 years that the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has operated on a regular monthly basis in the north-east Atlantic and North Sea, large changes have been witnessed in the planktonic ecosystem. These changes have taken the form of long-term trends in abundance for certain species or stepwise changes for others, and in many cases are correlated with a mode of climatic variability in the North Atlantic, either: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basin-scale atmospheric alteration of the pressure field between the Azores high pressure cell and the Icelandic Low; or (2) the Gulf Stream Index (GSI), which measures the latitudinal position of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Recent work has shown that the changes in the GSI are coupled with the NAO and Pacific Southern Oscillation with a 2 year lag. The plankton variability is also possibly linked to changes observed in the distribution and flux of water masses in the surface, intermediate and deep waters of the North Atlantic. For example, in the last two decades, the extent and location of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, Labrador Sea Intermediate Water and Norwegian Sea intermediate and upper-layer water has altered considerably. This paper discusses the extent to which observed changes in plankton abundance and distribution may be linked to this basin-scale variability in hydrodynamics. The results are also placed within the context of global climate warming and the possible effects of the observed melting of Arctic permafrost and sea ice on the subpolar North Atlantic.

Depth gradients of benthic standing stock and diversity on the continental margin at a high-latitude ice-free site (off Spitsbergen 79 degrees N)

High-latitude seas are mostly covered by multi-year ice, which impacts processes of primary production and sedimentation of organic matter. Because of the warming effect of West Spitsbergen Current (WSC), the waters off West Spitsbergen have only winter ice cover. That is uncommon for such a high latitude and enables to separate effects of multiyear-ice cover from the latitudinal patterns. Macrofauna was sampled off Kongsfjord (79°N) along the depth gradient from 300 to 3000 m. The density, biomass and diversity at shallow sites situated in a canyon were very variable. Biomass was negatively correlated with depth (R=-0.86R=-0.86, p<0.001), and ranged from 61 g ww m−2 (212 m) to 1 g ww m−2 (2025 m). The biomasses were much higher than in the multiyear-ice covered High Arctic at similar depths, while resembling those from temperate and tropical localities. Species richness (expressed by number of species per sample and species–area accumulation curves) decreased with depth. There was no clear depth-related pattern in diversity measures: Hurbert rarefaction, Shannon–Wiener or Pielou. The classic increase of species richness and diversity with depth was not observed. Species richness and diversity of deep-sea macrofauna were much lower in our study than in comparable studies of temperate North Atlantic localities. That is related to geographic isolation of Greenland–Icelandic–Norwegian (GIN) seas from the Atlantic pool of species.

Recent Arctic Climate Change and Its Remote Forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems

During recent decades, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. Additionally, shifts in the Arctic's atmospheric pressure field have altered surface winds, ocean circulation, and freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre. These processes have resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, including the emergence of great salinity anomalies propagating throughout the North Atlantic. Here, we link these variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the regime shifts observed in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Specifically, we hypothesize that the corresponding salinity anomalies, both negative and positive, alter the timing and extent of water-column stratification, thereby impacting the production and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher-trophic-level consumers. Should this hypothesis hold up to critical evaluation, it has the potential to fundamentally alter our current understanding of the processes forcing the dynamics of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems.