Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

The Southern Ocean and South Pacific Region

The Region comprises three sub-regions (FAO Statistical Areas) with very different characteristics. The South Pacific includes the vast and virtually unpopulated Southern Ocean surrounding the Antarctic. It has the world’s largest fisheries off Peru and Chile and some of the world’s best managed fisheries in Australia and New Zealand. The Region has over 27% of the world’s ocean area and over 98% of the Region’s total area of 91 million km2 is ‘open ocean’. The Region contains less than 5% of the global continental shelf area and only a fraction of this area is covered by three large marine ecosystems (the New Zealand Shelf, the Humboldt Current and the Antarctic large marine ecosystems (LMEs). The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is the world’s largest upwelling which provides nutrients for the world’s largest fisheries. The Region also has a high number of seamounts. The marine capture fisheries of the Region produce over 13 million tons annually and an expanding aquaculture industry produces over 1.5 million tons. Peru’s anchoveta fishery provides about half the world’s supply of fish meal and oil, key ingredients of animal and fish feeds. El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSOs), known more generally as El Niños, can substantially change the species composition of the key small pelagic catches (anchovy, sardine, horse mackerel and jack mackerel) causing production to fluctuate from about 4-8 million tons. Partly due to the lack of upwelling and shelf areas, fisheries production in the Southern Ocean and Area 81 is relatively small but supports economically important commercial and recreational fisheries and aquaculture in New Zealand and in New South Wales (Australia). Krill remains a major underexploited resource, but is also a keystone species in the Antarctic food web. The Region is home to numerous endangered species of whales, seals and seabirds and has a high number of seamounts, vulnerable ecosystems fished for high-value species such as orange roughy.

The Southern Ocean and South Pacific Region

The Region comprises three sub-regions (FAO Statistical Areas) with very different characteristics. The South Pacific includes the vast and virtually unpopulated Southern Ocean surrounding the Antarctic. It has the world’s largest fisheries off Peru and Chile and some of the world’s best managed fisheries in Australia and New Zealand. The Region has over 27% of the world’s ocean area and over 98% of the Region’s total area of 91 million km2 is ‘open ocean’. The Region contains less than 5% of the global continental shelf area and only a fraction of this area is covered by three large marine ecosystems (the New Zealand Shelf, the Humboldt Current and the Antarctic large marine ecosystems (LMEs). The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is the world’s largest upwelling which provides nutrients for the world’s largest fisheries. The Region also has a high number of seamounts. The marine capture fisheries of the Region produce over 13 million tons annually and an expanding aquaculture industry produces over 1.5 million tons. Peru’s anchoveta fishery provides about half the world’s supply of fish meal and oil, key ingredients of animal and fish feeds. El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSOs), known more generally as El Niños, can substantially change the species composition of the key small pelagic catches (anchovy, sardine, horse mackerel and jack mackerel) causing production to fluctuate from about 4-8 million tons. Partly due to the lack of upwelling and shelf areas, fisheries production in the Southern Ocean and Area 81 is relatively small but supports economically important commercial and recreational fisheries and aquaculture in New Zealand and in New South Wales (Australia). Krill remains a major underexploited resource, but is also a keystone species in the Antarctic food web. The Region is home to numerous endangered species of whales, seals and seabirds and has a high number of seamounts, vulnerable ecosystems fished for high-value species such as orange roughy.