Disentangling the impacts of heat wave magnitude, duration and timing on the structure and diversity of sessile marine assemblages

Extreme climatic events, including heat waves (HWs) and severe storms, influence the structure of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Despite growing consensus that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency, duration and magnitude of extreme events, current understanding of their impact on communities and ecosystems is limited. Here, we used sessile invertebrates on settlement panels as model assemblages to examine the influence of HW magnitude, duration and timing on marine biodiversity patterns. Settlement panels were deployed in a marina in southwest UK for ≥5 weeks, to allow sufficient time for colonisation and development of sessile fauna, before being subjected to simulated HWs in a mesocosm facility. Replicate panel assemblages were held at ambient sea temperature (∼17 °C), or +3 °C or +5 °C for a period of 1 or 2 weeks, before being returned to the marina for a recovery phase of 2–3 weeks. The 10-week experiment was repeated 3 times, staggered throughout summer, to examine the influence of HW timing on community impacts. Contrary to our expectations, the warming events had no clear, consistent impacts on the abundance of species or the structure of sessile assemblages. With the exception of 1 high-magnitude long-duration HW event, warming did not alter not assemblage structure, favour non-native species, nor lead to changes in richness, abundance or biomass of sessile faunal assemblages. The observed lack of effect may have been caused by a combination of (1) the use of relatively low magnitude, realistic heat wave treatments compared to previous studies (2), the greater resilience of mature adult sessile fauna compared to recruits and juveniles, and (3) the high thermal tolerance of the model organisms (i.e., temperate fouling species, principally bryozoans and ascidians). Our study demonstrates the importance of using realistic treatments when manipulating climate change variables, and also suggests that biogeographical context may influence community-level responses to short-term warming events, which are predicted to increase in severity in the future.

Impacts of climate change on non-native species

Anthropogenic changes to climate and extreme weather events have already led to the introduction of non-native species (NNS) to the North Atlantic. Regional climate models predict that there will be a continuation of the current trend of warming throughout the 21st century providing enhanced opportunities for NNS at each stage of the invasion process. Increasing evidence is now available to show that climate change has led to the northwards range expansion of a number of NNS in the UK and Ireland, such as the Asian club tunicate Styela clava and the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Providing definitive evidence though of the direct linkage between climate change and the spread of the majority of NNS is extremely challenging, due to other confounding factors, such as anthropogenic activity. Localised patterns of water movement and food supply may also be complicating the overall pattern of northwards range expansion, by preventing the expansion of some NNS, such as the slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata and the Chilean oyster Ostrea chilensis, from a particular region. A greater understanding of the other aspects of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2, such as increased rainfall, heat waves, frequency of storm events, and ocean acidification may aid in increasing the confidence that scientists have in predicting the long term influence of climate change on the introduction, spread and establishment of NNS.

Climate driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

Climate driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

Joint distributions of waves and rain

The transfer of gases between the atmosphere and ocean is affected by a number of processes, of which wave action and rainfall are two of potential significance. Efforts have been made to quantify separately their contributions; however such assessments neglect the interaction of these phenomena. Here we look at the correlation statistics of waves and rain to note which regions display a strong association between rainfall and the local sea state. The conditional probability of rain varies from ~0.5% to ~15%, with most of the equatorial belt (which contains the ITCZ) showing a greater likelihood of rain at the lowest sea states. In contrast the occurrence of rain is independent of wave height in the Southern Ocean. The 1997/98 El Niño enhances the frequency of rain in some Pacific regions, with this change showing some association with wave conditions.

Air/sea DMS gas transfer in the North Atlantic: evidence for limited interfacial gas exchange at high wind speed

Shipboard measurements of eddy covariance dimethylsulfide (DMS) air–sea fluxes and seawater concentration were carried out in the North Atlantic bloom region in June/July 2011. Gas transfer coefficients (k660) show a linear dependence on mean horizontal wind speed at wind speeds up to 11 m s−1. At higher wind speeds the relationship between k660 and wind speed weakens. At high winds, measured DMS fluxes were lower than predicted based on the linear relationship between wind speed and interfacial stress extrapolated from low to intermediate wind speeds. In contrast, the transfer coefficient for sensible heat did not exhibit this effect. The apparent suppression of air–sea gas flux at higher wind speeds appears to be related to sea state, as determined from shipboard wave measurements. These observations are consistent with the idea that long waves suppress near-surface water-side turbulence, and decrease interfacial gas transfer. This effect may be more easily observed for DMS than for less soluble gases, such as CO2, because the air–sea exchange of DMS is controlled by interfacial rather than bubble-mediated gas transfer under high wind speed conditions.

Air-sea transfer of gas phase controlled compounds

Gases in the atmosphere/ocean have solubility that spans several orders of magnitude. Resistance in the molecular sublayer on the waterside limits the air-sea exchange of sparingly soluble gases such as SF6 and CO2. In contrast, both aerodynamic and molecular diffusive resistances on the airside limit the exchange of highly soluble gases (as well as heat). Here we present direct measurements of air-sea methanol and acetone transfer from two open cruises: the Atlantic Meridional Transect in 2012 and the High Wind Gas Exchange Study in 2013. The transfer of the highly soluble methanol is essentially completely airside controlled, while the less soluble acetone is subject to both airside and waterside resistances. Both compounds were measured concurrently using a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer, with their fluxes quantified by the eddy covariance method. Up to a wind speed of 15 m s-1, observed air-sea transfer velocities of these two gases are largely consistent with the expected near linear wind speed dependence. Measured acetone transfer velocity is ~30% lower than that of methanol, which is primarily due to the lower solubility of acetone. From this difference we estimate the "zero bubble" waterside transfer velocity, which agrees fairly well with interfacial gas transfer velocities predicted by the COARE model. At wind speeds above 15 m s-1, the transfer velocities of both compounds are lower than expected in the mean. Air-sea transfer of sensible heat (also airside controlled) also appears to be reduced at wind speeds over 20 m s-1. During these conditions, large waves and abundant whitecaps generate large amounts of sea spray, which is predicted to alter heat transfer and could also affect the air-sea exchange of soluble trace gases. We make an order of magnitude estimate for the impacts of sea spray on air-sea methanol transfer.

Air-sea transfer of gas phase controlled compounds

Gases in the atmosphere/ocean have solubility that spans several orders of magnitude. Resistance in the molecular sublayer on the waterside limits the air-sea exchange of sparingly soluble gases such as SF6 and CO2. In contrast, both aerodynamic and molecular diffusive resistances on the airside limit the exchange of highly soluble gases (as well as heat). Here we present direct measurements of air-sea methanol and acetone transfer from two open cruises: the Atlantic Meridional Transect in 2012 and the High Wind Gas Exchange Study in 2013. The transfer of the highly soluble methanol is essentially completely airside controlled, while the less soluble acetone is subject to both airside and waterside resistances. Both compounds were measured concurrently using a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer, with their fluxes quantified by the eddy covariance method. Up to a wind speed of 15 m s-1, observed air-sea transfer velocities of these two gases are largely consistent with the expected near linear wind speed dependence. Measured acetone transfer velocity is ~30% lower than that of methanol, which is primarily due to the lower solubility of acetone. From this difference we estimate the "zero bubble" waterside transfer velocity, which agrees fairly well with interfacial gas transfer velocities predicted by the COARE model. At wind speeds above 15 m s-1, the transfer velocities of both compounds are lower than expected in the mean. Air-sea transfer of sensible heat (also airside controlled) also appears to be reduced at wind speeds over 20 m s-1. During these conditions, large waves and abundant whitecaps generate large amounts of sea spray, which is predicted to alter heat transfer and could also affect the air-sea exchange of soluble trace gases. We make an order of magnitude estimate for the impacts of sea spray on air-sea methanol transfer.