Marine biodiversity and climate change: assessing and predicting the influence of climatic change using intertidal rocky shore biota. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 20

In the last 60 years climate change has altered the distribution and abundance of many seashore species. Below is a summary of the findings of this project. The MarClim project was a four year multi-partner funded project created to investigate the effects of climatic warming on marine biodiversity. In particular the project aimed to use intertidal species, whose abundances had been shown to fluctuate with changes in climatic conditions, as indicator species of likely responses of species not only on rocky shores, but also those found offshore. The project used historic time series data, from in some cases the 1950s onwards, and contemporary data collected as part of the MarClim project (2001-2005), to provide evidence of changes in the abundance, range and population structure of intertidal species and relate these changes to recent rapid climatic warming. In particular quantitative counts of barnacles, limpets and trochids were made as well as semi-quantitative surveys of up to 56 intertidal taxa.Historic and contemporary data informed experiments to understand the mechanisms behind these changes and models to predict future species ranges and abundances.

Range extension and reproduction of the barnacle Balanus perforatus in the eastern English Channel

The distribution of the warm-water barnacle, Balanus perforatus, was surveyed along the south coast of England and the north-east coast of France between 1993 and 2001, repeating work carried out between the 1940s and 1960s. The species has recovered from catastrophic mortality during the severe winter of 1962–1963 and was found over 120 km (UK) and 190 km (France) east of previous records on both sides of the Channel. The presence of the species in the eastern Channel refutes suggestions in the 1950s that larvae, and hence adults, would not be found east of the Isle of Wight because of reproductive sterility close to the limits of distribution. Brooding of specimens translocated to Bembridge, Isle of Wight, commenced in May, earlier than previously observed in British waters, and continued until September. The stage of embryo development at Bembridge in mid-August was comparable to that of the large population at Lyme Regis, Dorset 100 km further west. However the size of brood per standard body weight was greater at Lyme Regis. Factors influencing the rate of colonization and further geographic range extension of the species as a possible result of climate change, are discussed.

Data rescue and re-use: Recycling old information to address new policy concerns

Information on past trends is essential to inform future predictions and underpin attribution needed to drive policy responses. It has long been recognised that sustained observations are essential for disentangling climate-driven change from other regional and local-scale anthropogenic impacts and environmental fluctuations or cycles in natural systems. This paper highlights how data rescue and re-use have contributed to the debate on climate change responses of marine biodiversity and ecosystems. It also illustrates via two case studies the re-use of old data to address new policy concerns. The case studies focus on (1) plankton, fish and benthos from the Western English Channel and (2) broad-scale and long-term studies of intertidal species around the British Isles. Case study 1 using the Marine Biological Association of the UK's English Channel data has shown the influence of climatic fluctuations on phenology (migration and breeding patterns) and has also helped to disentangle responses to fishing pressure from those driven by climate, and provided insights into ecosystem-level change in the English Channel. Case study 2 has shown recent range extensions, increases of abundance and changes in phenology (breeding patterns) of southern, warm-water intertidal species in relation to recent rapid climate change and fluctuations in northern and southern barnacle species, enabling modelling and prediction of future states. The case is made for continuing targeted sustained observations and their importance for marine management and policy development.