Modeling marine ecosystem responses to global climate change: Where are we now and where should we be going?

Modeling of global climate change is moving from global circulation model (GCM)-type projections with coupled biogeochemical models to projections of ecological responses, including food web and upper trophic levels. Marine and coastal ecosystems are highly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change and also produce significant ecosystem services. The effects of global climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems involve a much wider array of effects than the usual temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation. This paper is an overview for a collection of 12 papers that examined various aspects of global climate change on marine ecosystems and comprise this special issue. We summarized the major features of the models and analyses in the papers to determine general patterns. A wide range of ecosystems were simulated using a diverse set of modeling approaches. Models were either 3-dimensional or used a few spatial boxes, and responses to global climate change were mostly expressed as changes from a baseline condition. Three issues were identified from the across-model comparison: (a) lack of standardization of climate change scenarios, (b) the prevalence of site-specific and even unique models for upper trophic levels, and (c) emphasis on hypothesis evaluation versus forecasting. We discuss why these issues are important as global climate change assessment continues to progress up the food chain, and, when possible, offer some initial steps for going forward.

The effect of ocean acidification on carbon storage and sequestration in seagrass beds; a global and UK context

Ocean acidification will have many negative consequences for marine organisms and ecosystems, leading to a decline in many ecosystem services provided by the marine environment. This study reviews the effect of ocean acidification (OA) on seagrasses, assessing how this may affect their capacity to sequester carbon in the future and providing an economic valuation of these changes. If ocean acidification leads to a significant increase in above- and below-ground biomass, the capacity of seagrass to sequester carbon will be significantly increased. The associated value of this increase in sequestration capacity is approximately 500 and 600 billion globally between 2010 and 2100. A proportionally similar increase in carbon sequestration value was found for the UK. This study highlights one of the few positive stories for ocean acidification and underlines that sustainable management of seagrasses is critical to avoid their continued degradation and loss of carbon sequestration capacity.

An estimate of the global emissions of methyl bromide from automobile exhausts

An estimate of the annual global methyl bromide (CH3Br) emissions from automobile exhausts has been determined by extrapolating the results of a field study conducted in the United Kingdom (UK). A strong linear correlation was observed between the CH3Br and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations of roadside air in three cities. This correlation and knowledge of the UK CO emissions was used to estimate the source strength of CH3Br from automobile exhausts in the UK (0.04 ktonnes yr−1). Further extrapolations lead to a value of 1.5 ktonnes yr−1 (with an upper limit of 3.0 ktonnes yr−1) of CH3Br released globally to the atmosphere from automobile exhausts.

The CO2 microalgae biorefinery: high value products and biofuels using halophilic microalgae in the “D-Factory”

Fuel-only algal systems are not economically feasible because yields are too low and costs too high for producing microalgal biomass compared to using agricultural residues e.g. straw. Biorefineries which integrate biomass conversion processes and equipment to produce fuels, power and chemicals from biomass, offer a solution. The CO2 microalgae biorefinery (D-Factory) is a 10 million Euro FP7-funded project which will cultivate the microalga Dunaliella in highly saline non-potable waters in photobioreactors and open raceways and apply biorefinery concepts and European innovations in biomass processing technologies to develop a basket of compounds from Dunaliella biomass, including the high value nutraceutical, β-carotene, and glycerol. Glycerol now finds markets both as a green chemical intermediate and as a biofuel in CHP applications as a result of novel combustion technology. Driving down costs by recovering the entire biomass of Dunaliella cells from saline cultivation water poses one of the many challenges for the D-Factory because Dunaliella cells are both motile, and do not possess an external cell wall, making them highly susceptible to cell rupture. Controlling expression of desired metabolic pathways to deliver the desired portfolio of compounds flexibly and sustainably to meet market demand is another. The first prototype D-Factory in Europe will be operational in 48 months, and will serve as a robust manifestation of the business case for global investment in algae biorefineries and in large-scale production of microalgae.