From plankton to top predators: bottom-up control of a marine food web across four trophic levels

1. Abundant mid-trophic pelagic fish often play a central role in marine ecosystems, both as links between zooplankton and top predators and as important fishery targets. In the North Sea, the lesser sandeel occupies this position, being the main prey of many bird, mammal and fish predators and the target of a major industrial fishery. However, since 2003, sandeel landings have decreased by > 50%, and many sandeel-dependent seabirds experienced breeding failures in 2004. 2. Despite the major economic implications, current understanding of the regulation of key constituents of this ecosystem is poor. Sandeel abundance may be regulated 'bottom-up' by food abundance, often thought to be under climatic control, or 'top-down' by natural or fishery predation. We tested predictions from these two hypotheses by combining unique long-term data sets (1973–2003) on seabird breeding productivity from the Isle of May, SE Scotland, and plankton and fish larvae from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We also tested whether seabird breeding productivity was more tightly linked to sandeel biomass or quality (size) of individual fish. 3. The biomass of larval sandeels increased two- to threefold over the study period and was positively associated with proxies of the abundance of their plankton prey. Breeding productivity of four seabirds bringing multiple prey items to their offspring was positively related to sandeel larval biomass with a 1-year lag, indicating dependence on 1-year-old fish, but in one species bringing individual fish it was strongly associated with the size of adult sandeels. 4. These links are consistent with bottom-up ecosystem regulation and, with evidence from previous studies, indicate how climate-driven changes in plankton communities can affect top predators and potentially human fisheries through the dynamics of key mid-trophic fish. However, the failing recruitment to adult sandeel stocks and the exceptionally low seabird breeding productivity in 2004 were not associated with low sandeel larval biomass in 2003, so other mechanisms (e.g. predation, lack of suitable food after metamorphosis) must have been important in this case. Understanding ecosystem regulation is extremely important for predicting the fate of keystone species, such as sandeels, and their predators.

Ecological equivalence of species within phytoplankton functional groups

1.There are tens of thousands of species of phytoplankton found throughout the tree of life. Despite this diversity, phytoplankton are often aggregated into a few functional groups according to metabolic traits or biogeochemical role. We investigate the extent to which phytoplankton species dynamics are neutral within functional groups. 2.Seasonal dynamics in many regions of the ocean are known to affect phytoplankton at the functional group level leading to largely predictable patterns of seasonal succession. It is much more difficult to make general statements about the dynamics of individual species. 3.We use a 7 year time-series at station L4 in the Western English Channel with 57 diatom and 17 dinoflagellate species enumerated weekly to test if the abundance of diatom and dinoflagellate species vary randomly within their functional group envelope or if each species is driven uniquely by external factors. 4.We show that the total biomass of the diatom and dinoflagellate functional groups is well predicted by irradiance and temperature and quantify trait values governing the growth rate of both functional groups. The biomass dynamics of the functional groups are not neutral and each has their own distinct responses to environmental forcing. Compared to dinoflagellates, diatoms have faster growth rates, and grow faster under lower irradiance, cooler temperatures, and higher nutrient conditions. 5.The biomass of most species vary randomly within their functional group biomass envelope, most of the time. As a consequence, modelers will find it difficult to predict the biomass of most individual species. Our analysis supports the approach of using a single set of traits for a functional group and suggests that it should be possible to determine these traits from natural communities.

Simulation of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment with an individual-based model and comparison with field data

An individual-based model (IBM) for the simulation of year-to-year survival during the early life-history stages of the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) was developed within the EU funded Shelf-Edge Advection, Mortality and Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. The IBM included transport, growth and survival and was used to track the passive movement of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae and determine their distribution and abundance after approximately 2 months of drift. One of the main outputs from the IBM, namely distributions and numbers of surviving post-larvae, are compared with field data as recruit (age-0/age-1 juveniles) distribution and abundance for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000. The juvenile distributions show more inter-annual and spatial variability than the modelled distributions of survivors; this may be due to the restriction of using the same initial egg distribution for all 3 yr of simulation. The IBM simulations indicate two main recruitment areas for the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel, these being Porcupine Bank and the south-eastern Bay of Biscay. These areas correspond to areas of high juvenile catches, although the juveniles generally have a more widespread distribution than the model simulations. The best agreement between modelled data and field data for distribution (juveniles and model survivors) is for the year 1998. The juvenile catches in different representative nursery areas are totalled to give a field abundance index (FAI). This index is compared with a model survivor index (MSI) which is calculated from the total of survivors for the whole spawning season. The MSI compares favourably with the FAI for 1998 and 1999 but not for 2000; in this year, juvenile catches dropped sharply compared with the previous years but there was no equivalent drop in modelled survivors.