12 resultados para Fonction cumulative

em Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA)


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The effect of different salinity levels on colonial growth and gonozooid frequency of the hydroid Campanularia flexuosa Hincks has been studied. It is shown that the usual cumulative presentation of growth data tends to obscure evidence of acclimation and other features of importance to an interpretation of adaptations of the growth process to salinity changes. A method of analysis is described that not only demonstrates acclimation, but apparently shows how growth is controlled after disturbance by changes in salinity. One other response to reduced salinity and other unfavourable changes in water chemistry is an increase in gonozooid frequency due to the diversion of resources from the formation of new hydranths.

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The quantitative effects of Cu8+, Cd2+ and Hg2+ on the cytochemical staining reaction for lysosomal N-acetyl-/?-D-glucosaminidase have been determined and related to the inhibitory effects of the metals on colonial growth rate in the experimentally cultured hydroid Campanularia flexuosa. Cytochemical threshold concentrations are comparable to known environmental levels and are about one order of magnitude lower than those obtained by measuring colony growth rates. Pretreatment of colonies with Cuz+ gave no indication of tolerance adaptation, although there is evidence of the cumulative toxicity of Cu2+ and the possible sequestration of this metal in endodermal cell lysosomes. There is also an indication that the Cu2+ may exert its toxic effect by decreasing the stability of the lysosomal membranes, thus increasing the level of free glucosaminidase activity.

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Climatic variability on the European Continental Shelf is dominated by events over the North Atlantic Ocean, and in particular by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is essentially a winter phenomenon, and its effects will be felt most strongly by populations for which winter conditions are critical. One example is the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, whose northern North Sea populations overwinter at depth in the North Atlantic. Its annual abundance in this region is strongly dependent on water transports at the end of the winter, and hence on the NAO index. Variations in the NAO give rise to changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, with additional perturbations arising from El Ni (n) over tildeo - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Pacific, and these changes can be delayed by several years because of the adjustment time of the ocean circulation. One measure of the circulation is the latitude of the north wall of the Gulf Stream (GSNW index). Interannual variations in the plankton of the Shelf Seas show strong correlations with the fluctuations of the GSNW index, which are the result of Atlantic-wide atmospheric processes. These associations imply that the interannual variations are climatically induced rather than due to natural fluctuations of the marine ecosystem, and that the zooplankton populations have not been significantly affected by anthropogenic processes such as nutrient enrichment or fishing pressure. While the GSNW index represents a response to atmospheric changes over two or more years, the zooplankton populations correlated with it have generation times of a few weeks. The simplest explanation for the associations between the zooplankton and the GSNW index is that the plankton are responding to weather patterns propagating downstream from the Gulf Stream system. It seems that these meteorological processes operate in the spring. Although it has been suggested that there was a regime shift in the North Sea in the late 1980s, examination of the time-series by the cumulative sum (CUSUM) technique shows that any changes in the zooplankton of the central and northern North Sea are consistent with the background climatic variability. The abundance of total copepods increased during this period but this change does not represent a dramatic change in ecosystem processes. It is possible some change may have occurred at the end of the time-series in the years 1997 and 1998.

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Antarctic krill Euphausia superba (hereafter ‘krill’) occur in regions undergoing rapid environmental change, particularly loss of winter sea ice. During recent years, harvesting of krill has increased, possibly enhancing stress on krill and Antarctic ecosystems. Here we review the overall impact of climate change on krill and Antarctic ecosystems, discuss implications for an ecosystem-based fisheries management approach and identify critical knowledge gaps. Sea ice decline, ocean warming and other environmental stressors act in concert to modify the abundance, distribution and life cycle of krill. Although some of these changes can have positive effects on krill, their cumulative impact is most likely negative. Recruitment, driven largely by the winter survival of larval krill, is probably the population parameter most susceptible to climate change. Predicting changes to krill populations is urgent, because they will seriously impact Antarctic ecosystems. Such predictions, however, are complicated by an intense inter-annual variability in recruitment success and krill abundance. To improve the responsiveness of the ecosystem-based management approach adopted by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), critical knowledge gaps need to be filled. In addition to a better understanding of the factors influencing recruitment, management will require a better understanding of the resilience and the genetic plasticity of krill life stages, and a quantitative understanding of under-ice and benthic habitat use. Current precautionary management measures of CCAMLR should be maintained until a better understanding of these processes has been achieved.

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The calanoid copepod Neocalan us plumchrus (Marukawa) is a dominant member of the spring mesozooplankton in the subarctic North Pacific and Bering Sea. Previous studies have shown interdecadal and latitudinal variation in seasonal developmental timing, with peak biomass occurring earlier in years and places with warmer upper ocean temperatures. Because N. plumchrus normally has a single dominant annual cohort, its seasonal timing can be indexed from measurements of total population biomass or by following progressive changes in stage composition. Early studies empirically found that peak upper ocean biomass occurred when about half of the pre-dormant population had reached copepodite stage 5 (C5). However, more recent comparisons derived from recent Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data now show peak biomass when a larger fraction (> 80%) of the population is at C5. CPR samples the surface 10 to 15 m, but comparisons to depth-resolved BIONESS data show that this discrepancy is not an artefact of sampling depth. Other causes are either a prolongation of duration of pre-dormant C5 or a narrowing of the age range making up the annual cohort. We assessed changes in cohort width using a modification of Greve's cumulative percentile method, and found that average cohort widths in the Alaska Gyre were significantly narrower in 2000-2007 than in 1957-1965 (1968-1980 were intermediate). Net tow sampling of Strait of Georgia populations showed a similar significant narrowing of cohorts in the 2003-2005 sampling period. This study provides evidence that in addition to the shift to an earlier occurrence of peak biomass reported previously, the duration of the peak has also decreased in the last decade.

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Phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific were investigated for 2001–2009, based on satellite ocean colour data and the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We estimated the timing of the spring bloom based on the cumulative sum satellite chlorophyll adata, and found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-related interannual SST anomaly in spring significantly affected phytoplankton phenology. The bloom occurred either later or earlier in years of positive or negative PDO (indicating cold and warm conditions, respectively). Phytoplankton composition in the early summer varied depending on the magnitude of seasonal SST increases, rather than the SST value itself. Interannual variations in diatom abundance and the relative abundance of non-diatoms were positively correlated with SST increases for March–April and May–July, respectively, suggesting that mixed layer environmental factors, such as light availability and nutrient stoichiometry, determine shifts in phytoplankton community structure. Our study emphasised the importance of the interannual variation in climate-induced warm–cool cycles as one of the key mechanisms linking climatic forcing and lower trophic level ecosystems.

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The accuracy of two satellite models of marine primary (PP) and new production (NP) were assessed against 14C and 15N uptake measurements taken during six research cruises in the northern North Atlantic. The wavelength resolving model (WRM) was more accurate than the Vertical General Production Model (VGPM) for computation of both PP and NP. Mean monthly satellite maps of PP and NP for both models were generated from 1997 to 2010 using SeaWiFS data for the Irminger basin and North Atlantic. Intra- and inter-annual variability of the two models was compared in six hydrographic zones. Both models exhibited similar spatio-temporal patterns: PP and NP increased from April to June and decreased by August. Higher values were associated with the East Greenland Current (EGC), Iceland Basin (ICB) and the Reykjanes Ridge (RKR) and lower values occurred in the Central Irminger Current (CIC), North Irminger Current (NIC) and Southern Irminger Current (SIC). The annual PP and NP over the SeaWiFS record was 258 and 82 gC m-2 yr-1 respectively for the VGPM and 190 and 41 gC m-2 yr-1 for the WRM. Average annual cumulative sum in the anomalies of NP for the VGPM were positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the EGC, CIC and SIC and negatively correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) in the ICB. By contrast, cumulative sum of the anomalies of NP for the WRM were significantly correlated with NAO only in the EGC and CIC. NP from both VGPM and WRM exhibited significant negative correlations with Arctic Oscillation (AO) in all hydrographic zones. The differences in estimates of PP and NP in these hydrographic zones arise principally from the parameterisation of the euphotic depth and the SST dependence of photo-physiological term in the VGPM, which has a greater sensitivity to variations in temperature than the WRM. In waters of 0 to 5C PP using the VGPM was 43% higher than WRM, from 5 to 10C the VGPM was 29% higher and from 10 to 15C the VGPM was 27% higher.

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This project was commissioned to generate an improved understanding of the sensitivities of seagrass habitats to pressures associated with human activities in the marine environment - to provide an evidence base to facilitate and support management advice for Marine Protected Areas; development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. Seagrass bed habitats are identified as a Priority Marine Feature (PMF) under the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010, they are also included on the OSPAR list of threatened and declining species and habitats, and are a Habitat of Principle Importance (HPI) under the Natural Environment and Rural Communities (NERC) Act 2006, in England and Wales. The purpose of this project was to produce sensitivity assessments with supporting evidence for the HPI, OSPAR and PMF seagrass/Zostera bed habitat definitions, clearly documenting the evidence behind the assessments and any differences between assessments. Nineteen pressures, falling in five categories - biological, hydrological, physical damage, physical loss, and pollution and other chemical changes - were assessed in this report. Assessments were based on the three British seagrasses Zostera marina, Z. noltei and Ruppia maritima. Z. marina var. angustifolia was considered to be a subspecies of Z. marina but it was specified where studies had considered it as a species in its own rights. Where possible other components of the community were investigated but the basis of the assessment focused on seagrass species. To develop each sensitivity assessment, the resistance and resilience of the key elements were assessed against the pressure benchmark using the available evidence. The benchmarks were designed to provide a ‘standard’ level of pressure against which to assess sensitivity. Overall, seagrass beds were highly sensitive to a number of human activities: • penetration or disturbance of the substratum below the surface; • habitat structure changes – removal of substratum; • physical change to another sediment type; • physical loss of habitat; • siltation rate changes including and smothering; and • changes in suspended solids. High sensitivity was recorded for pressures which directly impacted the factors that limit seagrass growth and health such as light availability. Physical pressures that caused mechanical modification of the sediment, and hence damage to roots and leaves, also resulted in high sensitivity. Seagrass beds were assessed as ‘not sensitive’ to microbial pathogens or ‘removal of target species’. These assessments were based on the benchmarks used. Z. marina is known to be sensitive to Labyrinthula zosterae but this was not included in the benchmark used. Similarly, ‘removal of target species’ addresses only the biological effects of removal and not the physical effects of the process used. For example, seagrass beds are probably not sensitive to the removal of scallops found within the bed but are highly sensitive to the effects of dredging for scallops, as assessed under the pressure penetration or disturbance of the substratum below the surface‘. This is also an example of a synergistic effect Assessing the sensitivity of seagrass bed biotopes to pressures associated with marine activities between pressures. Where possible, synergistic effects were highlighted but synergistic and cumulative effects are outside the scope off this study. The report found that no distinct differences in sensitivity exist between the HPI, PMF and OSPAR definitions. Individual biotopes do however have different sensitivities to pressures. These differences were determined by the species affected, the position of the habitat on the shore and the sediment type. For instance evidence showed that beds growing in soft and muddy sand were more vulnerable to physical damage than beds on harder, more compact substratum. Temporal effects can also influence the sensitivity of seagrass beds. On a seasonal time frame, physical damage to roots and leaves occurring in the reproductive season (summer months) will have a greater impact than damage in winter. On a daily basis, the tidal regime could accentuate or attenuate the effects of pressures depending on high and low tide. A variety of factors must therefore be taken into account in order to assess the sensitivity of a particular seagrass habitat at any location. No clear difference in resilience was established across the three seagrass definitions assessed in this report. The resilience of seagrass beds and the ability to recover from human induced pressures is a combination of the environmental conditions of the site, growth rates of the seagrass, the frequency and the intensity of the disturbance. This highlights the importance of considering the species affected as well as the ecology of the seagrass bed, the environmental conditions and the types and nature of activities giving rise to the pressure and the effects of that pressure. For example, pressures that result in sediment modification (e.g. pitting or erosion), sediment change or removal, prolong recovery. Therefore, the resilience of each biotope and habitat definitions is discussed for each pressure. Using a clearly documented, evidence based approach to create sensitivity assessments allows the assessment and any subsequent decision making or management plans to be readily communicated, transparent and justifiable. The assessments can be replicated and updated where new evidence becomes available ensuring the longevity of the sensitivity assessment tool. The evidence review has reduced the uncertainty around assessments previously undertaken in the MB0102 project (Tillin et al 2010) by assigning a single sensitivity score to the pressures as opposed to a range. Finally, as seagrass habitats may also contribute to ecosystem function and the delivery of ecosystem services, understanding the sensitivity of these biotopes may also support assessment and management in regard to these. Whatever objective measures are applied to data to assess sensitivity, the final sensitivity assessment is indicative. The evidence, the benchmarks, the confidence in the assessments and the limitations of the process, require a sense-check by experienced marine ecologists before the outcome is used in management decisions.

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The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems and the goods and services they provide for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

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High level environmental screening study for offshore wind farm developments – marine habitats and species This report provides an awareness of the environmental issues related to marine habitats and species for developers and regulators of offshore wind farms. The information is also relevant to other offshore renewable energy developments. The marine habitats and species considered are those associated with the seabed, seabirds, and sea mammals. The report concludes that the following key ecological issues should be considered in the environmental assessment of offshore wind farms developments: • likely changes in benthic communities within the affected area and resultant indirect impacts on fish, populations and their predators such as seabirds and sea mammals; • potential changes to the hydrography and wave climate over a wide area, and potential changes to coastal processes and the ecology of the region; • likely effects on spawning or nursery areas of commercially important fish and shellfish species; • likely effects on mating and social behaviour in sea mammals, including migration routes; • likely effects on feeding water birds, seal pupping sites and damage of sensitive or important intertidal sites where cables come onshore; • potential displacement of fish, seabird and sea mammals from preferred habitats; • potential effects on species and habitats of marine natural heritage importance; • potential cumulative effects on seabirds, due to displacement of flight paths, and any mortality from bird strike, especially in sensitive rare or scarce species; • possible effects of electromagnetic fields on feeding behaviour and migration, especially in sharks and rays, and • potential marine conservation and biodiversity benefits of offshore wind farm developments as artificial reefs and 'no-take' zones. The report provides an especially detailed assessment of likely sensitivity of seabed species and habitats in the proposed development areas. Although sensitive to some of the factors created by wind farm developments, they mainly have a high recovery potential. The way in which survey data can be linked to Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) sensitivity assessments to produce maps of sensitivity to factors is demonstrated. Assessing change to marine habitats and species as a result of wind farm developments has to take account of the natural variability of marine habitats, which might be high especially in shallow sediment biotopes. There are several reasons for such changes but physical disturbance of habitats and short-term climatic variability are likely to be especially important. Wind farm structures themselves will attract marine species including those that are attached to the towers and scour protection, fish that associate with offshore structures, and sea birds (especially sea duck) that may find food and shelter there. Nature conservation designations especially relevant to areas where wind farm might be developed are described and the larger areas are mapped. There are few designated sites that extend offshore to where wind farms are likely to be developed. However, cable routes and landfalls may especially impinge on designated sites. The criteria that have been developed to assess the likely marine natural heritage importance of a location or of the habitats and species that occur there can be applied to survey information to assess whether or not there is anything of particular marine natural heritage importance in a development area. A decision tree is presented that can be used to apply ‘duty of care’ principles to any proposed development. The potential ‘gains’ for the local environment are explored. Wind farms will enhance the biodiversity of areas, could act as refugia for fish, and could be developed in a way that encourages enhancement of fish stocks including shellfish.

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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).