Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0 degrees and 90 degrees W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2 degrees C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27 degrees to 1.08 degrees C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Congruent trends in long-term zooplankton decline in the north-east Atlantic and basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus ) fishery catches off west Ireland

Trends in basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus) fishery catches off Achill Island, west Ireland between 1949 and 1975 were examined in relation to zooplankton (total copepod) abundance in four adjacent sea areas over a 27-year period. The numbers of basking sharks caught and copepod abundance showed downward trends and were positively correlated (r-value range, 0.44–0.74). A possible explanation for the downward trend in shark catches was that progressively fewer basking sharks occurred there between 1956 and 1975 because fewer copepods, their food resource, occurred near the surface off west Ireland over the same period. We suggest that the decline in basking sharks may have been due to a distributional shift of sharks to more productive areas, rather than a highly philopatric, localized stock that was over-exploited.