Bottom-up effects of climate on fish populations: data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) dataset on fish larvae has an extensive spatio-temporal coverage that allows the responses of fish populations to past changes in climate variability, including abrupt changes such as regime shifts, to be investigated. The newly available dataset offers a unique opportunity to investigate long-term changes over decadal scales in the abundance and distribution of fish larvae in relation to physical and biological factors. A principal component analysis (PCA) using 7 biotic and abiotic parameters is applied to investigate the impact of environmental changes in the North Sea on 5 selected taxa of fish larvae during the period 1960 to 2004. The analysis revealed 4 periods of time (1960–1976; 1977–1982; 1983–1996; 1997–2004) reflecting 3 different ecosystem states. The larvae of clupeids, sandeels, dab and gadoids seemed to be affected mainly by changes in the plankton ecosystem, while the larvae of migratory species such as Atlantic mackerel responded more to hydrographic changes. Climate variability seems more likely to influence fish populations through bottom-up control via a cascading effect from changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impacting on the hydro dynamic features of the North Sea, in turn impacting on the plankton available as prey for fish larvae. The responses and adaptability of fish larvae to changing environmental conditions, parti cularly to changes in prey availability, are complex and species-specific. This complexity is enhanced with fishing effects interacting with climate effects and this study supports furthering our under - standing of such interactions before attempting to predict how fish populations respond to climate variability

Introduction to the BASIN Special Issue: State of art, past present a view to the future

Marine ecosystems are complex networks of organisms interacting either directly or indirectly while under the influence of the physical and chemical properties of the medium they inhabit. The interplay between these biological agents and their abiotic environment results in complex non-linear responses to individual and multiple stressors, influenced by feedbacks between these organisms and their environment. These ecosystems provide key services that benefit humanity such as food provisioning via the transfer of energy to exploited fish populations or climate regulation via the sinking, subsequent mineralization and ultimately storage of carbon in the ocean interior. These key characteristics or emergent features of marine ecosystems are subject to rapid change (e.g. regime shifts; Alheit et al., 2005 and Scheffer et al., 2009), with outcomes that are largely unpredictable in a deterministic sense. The North Atlantic Ocean is host to a number of such systems which are collectively being influenced by the unique physical and chemical features of this ocean basin, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the basin’s ventilation with the Arctic Ocean, the dynamics of heat transport via the Gulf Stream and the formation of deep water at high latitudes. These features drive the solubility and biological pumps and support the production and environments that results in large exploited fish stocks. Our knowledge of its functioning as a coupled system, and in particular how it will respond to change, is still limited despite the scientific effort exerted over more than 100 years. This is due in part to the difficulty of providing synoptic overviews of a vast area, and to the fact that most fieldwork provides only snapshots of the complex physical, chemical and biological processes and their interactions. These constraints have in the past limited the development of a mechanistic understanding of the basin as a whole, and thus of the services it provides.

High Level Environmental Screening Study for Offshore Wind Farm Developments – Marine Habitats and Species Project

High level environmental screening study for offshore wind farm developments – marine habitats and species This report provides an awareness of the environmental issues related to marine habitats and species for developers and regulators of offshore wind farms. The information is also relevant to other offshore renewable energy developments. The marine habitats and species considered are those associated with the seabed, seabirds, and sea mammals. The report concludes that the following key ecological issues should be considered in the environmental assessment of offshore wind farms developments: • likely changes in benthic communities within the affected area and resultant indirect impacts on fish, populations and their predators such as seabirds and sea mammals; • potential changes to the hydrography and wave climate over a wide area, and potential changes to coastal processes and the ecology of the region; • likely effects on spawning or nursery areas of commercially important fish and shellfish species; • likely effects on mating and social behaviour in sea mammals, including migration routes; • likely effects on feeding water birds, seal pupping sites and damage of sensitive or important intertidal sites where cables come onshore; • potential displacement of fish, seabird and sea mammals from preferred habitats; • potential effects on species and habitats of marine natural heritage importance; • potential cumulative effects on seabirds, due to displacement of flight paths, and any mortality from bird strike, especially in sensitive rare or scarce species; • possible effects of electromagnetic fields on feeding behaviour and migration, especially in sharks and rays, and • potential marine conservation and biodiversity benefits of offshore wind farm developments as artificial reefs and 'no-take' zones. The report provides an especially detailed assessment of likely sensitivity of seabed species and habitats in the proposed development areas. Although sensitive to some of the factors created by wind farm developments, they mainly have a high recovery potential. The way in which survey data can be linked to Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) sensitivity assessments to produce maps of sensitivity to factors is demonstrated. Assessing change to marine habitats and species as a result of wind farm developments has to take account of the natural variability of marine habitats, which might be high especially in shallow sediment biotopes. There are several reasons for such changes but physical disturbance of habitats and short-term climatic variability are likely to be especially important. Wind farm structures themselves will attract marine species including those that are attached to the towers and scour protection, fish that associate with offshore structures, and sea birds (especially sea duck) that may find food and shelter there. Nature conservation designations especially relevant to areas where wind farm might be developed are described and the larger areas are mapped. There are few designated sites that extend offshore to where wind farms are likely to be developed. However, cable routes and landfalls may especially impinge on designated sites. The criteria that have been developed to assess the likely marine natural heritage importance of a location or of the habitats and species that occur there can be applied to survey information to assess whether or not there is anything of particular marine natural heritage importance in a development area. A decision tree is presented that can be used to apply ‘duty of care’ principles to any proposed development. The potential ‘gains’ for the local environment are explored. Wind farms will enhance the biodiversity of areas, could act as refugia for fish, and could be developed in a way that encourages enhancement of fish stocks including shellfish.

Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios

Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.

Changes in the oceanic northeast Pacific plankton populations; what may happen in a warmer ocean

The Continuous Plankton Recorder has been sampling the northeast Pacific on a routine basis since 2000. Although this is a relatively short time series still, climate variability within that time has caused noticeable related changes in the plankton. The earlier part of the time series followed the 1999 La Nina and conditions were cool, but conditions between 2003 and 2005 were anomalously warm. Oceanic zooplankton have responded to this warming in several ways that are discernible in CPR data. The seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass in the eastern Gulf of Alaska has shifted earlier in the spring by a few weeks (sampling resolution is too coarse to be more accurate). The copepod Neocalanus plumchruslflemingeri is largely responsible as it makes up a high proportion of the spring surface biomass and stage-based determinations have shown an earlier maximum in warmer years across much of the northeast Pacific, spanning nearly 20 degrees of latitude. Summer copepod populations are more diverse than in spring, although lower in biomass. The northwards extension of southern taxa in the summer correlates with surface temperature and in warmer years southern taxa are found further north than in cooler years. These findings support the importance of monitoring the open ocean particularly as it is an important foraging ground for large fish, birds and mammals. Higher trophic levels may time their reproduction or migration to coincide with the abundance of particular prey which may be of a different composition and/or lower abundance at a particular time in warmer conditions.