Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Particulate optical scattering coefficients along an Atlantic Meridional Transect

The particulate optical backscattering coefficient (bbp) is a fundamental optical property that allows monitoring of marine suspended particles both in situ and from space. Backscattering measurements in the open ocean are still scarce, however, especially in oligotrophic regions. Consequently, uncertainties remain in bbp parameterizations as well as in satellite estimates of bbp. In an effort to reduce these uncertainties, we present and analyze a dataset collected in surface waters during the 19th Atlantic Meridional Transect. Results show that the relationship between particulate beam-attenuation coefficient (cp) and chlorophyll-a concentration was consistent with published bio-optical models. In contrast, the particulate backscattering per unit of chlorophyll-a and per unit of cp were higher than in previous studies employing the same sampling methodology. These anomalies could be due to a bias smaller than the current uncertainties in bbp. If that was the case, then the AMT19 dataset would confirm that bbp:cp is remarkably constant over the surface open ocean. A second-order decoupling between bbp and cp was, however, evident in the spectral slopes of these coefficients, as well as during diel cycles. Overall, these results emphasize the current difficulties in obtaining accurate bbp measurements in the oligotrophic ocean and suggest that, to first order, bbp and cp are coupled in the surface open ocean, but they are also affected by other geographical and temporal variations.

Oxygen photolysis in the Mauritanian upwelling: Implications for net community production

We carried out 16 photochemical experiments of filtered surface water in a custom-built solar simulator and concomitant measurements of in vitro gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (R) in the Mauritanian upwelling during a Lagrangian study following three sulfur hexafluoride–labeled patches of upwelled water (P1 to P3). Oxygen photolysis rates were correlated with the absorbance of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) at 300 nm, suggesting first-order kinetics with respect to CDOM. An exponential fit was used to calculate the apparent quantum yield (AQY) for oxygen photolysis, giving an average AQY of 0.00053 µmol O2 (mole photons m−2 s−1)−1 at 280 nm and slope of 0.0012 nm−1. Modeled photochemical oxygen demand (POD) at the surface (3–16 mmol m−3 d−1) occasionally exceeded R and was dominated by ultraviolet radiation (71–79%). Euphotic-layer integrated GPP decreased with time during both P-1 and P-3, whereas R remained relatively constant and POD increased during P-1 and decreased during P-3. On Day 4 of P-3, GPP and POD maxima coincided with high CDOM absorbance, suggesting “new” CDOM production. Omitting POD may lead to an underestimation of net community production (NCP), both through in vitro and geochemical methods (here by 2–22%). We propose that oxygen-based NCP estimates should be revised upward. For the Mauritanian upwelling, the POD-corrected NCP was strongly correlated with standard NCP with a slope of 1.0066 ± 0.0244 and intercept of 46.51 ± 13.15 mmol m−2 d−1.

Absorption-based algorithm of primary production for total and size-fractionated phytoplankton in coastal waters

Most satellite models of production have been designed and calibrated for use in the open ocean. Coastal waters are optically more complex, and the use of chlorophyll a (chl a) as a first-order predictor of primary production may lead to substantial errors due to significant quantities of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and total suspended material (TSM) within the first optical depth. We demonstrate the use of phytoplankton absorption as a proxy to estimate primary production in the coastal waters of the North Sea and Western English Channel for both total, micro- and nano+pico-phytoplankton production. The method is implemented to extrapolate the absorption coefficient of phytoplankton and production at the sea surface to depth to give integrated fields of total and micro- and nano+pico-phytoplankton primary production using the peak in absorption coefficient at red wavelengths. The model is accurate to 8% in the Western English Channel and 22% in this region and the North Sea. By comparison, the accuracy of similar chl a based production models was >250%. The applicability of the method to autonomous optical sensors and remotely sensed aircraft data in both coastal and estuarine environments is discussed.

The biogeochemical structuring role of horizontal stirring: Lagrangian perspectives on iron delivery downstream of the Kerguelen Plateau

Field campaigns are instrumental in providing ground truth for understanding and modeling global ocean biogeochemical budgets. A survey however can only inspect a fraction of the global oceans, typically a region hundreds of kilometers wide for a temporal window of the order of (at most) several weeks. This spatiotemporal domain is also the one in which the mesoscale activity induces through horizontal stirring a strong variability in the biogeochemical tracers, with ephemeral, local contrasts which can easily mask the regional and seasonal gradients. Therefore, whenever local in situ measures are used to infer larger-scale budgets, one faces the challenge of identifying the mesoscale structuring effect, if not simply to filter it out. In the case of the KEOPS2 investigation of biogeochemical responses to natural iron fertilization, this problem was tackled by designing an adaptive sampling strategy based on regionally optimized multisatellite products analyzed in real time by specifically designed Lagrangian diagnostics. This strategy identified the different mesoscale and stirring structures present in the region and tracked the dynamical frontiers among them. It also enabled back trajectories for the ship-sampled stations to be estimated, providing important insights into the timing and pathways of iron supply, which were explored further using a model based on first-order iron removal. This context was essential for the interpretation of the field results. The mesoscale circulation-based strategy was also validated post-cruise by comparing the Lagrangian maps derived from satellites with the patterns of more than one hundred drifters, including some adaptively released during KEOPS2 and a subsequent research voyage. The KEOPS2 strategy was adapted to the specific biogeochemical characteristics of the region, but its principles are general and will be useful for future in situ biogeochemical surveys.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.