Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios

Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.

Governance, Governments and Legislation

The mandate for policy action on ocean acidification falls under the remit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC) since, like climate change, ocean acidification is a result of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The international community dealing with climate change must play a decisive role in encouraging national and local governments to scale-up efforts to mitigate CO2 emissions thereby reducing the impact of both climate change and ocean acidification. The annual UNFCCC meeting, Conference of the Parties (COP) represent pivotal opportunities for the ocean science community to provide the international community dealing with climate change with information and recommendations leading to informed solutions and policy guidelines that address ocean acidification. The objective is to develop a comprehensive message about the relevance of ocean acidification in current and future governance agendas. The target audiences include the international community dealing with climate change, climate negotiators, national leaders, UN agencies and Non-governmental Organisations, as well as the parties involved in the UNFCCC process.

Governance, Governments and Legislation

The mandate for policy action on ocean acidification falls under the remit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC) since, like climate change, ocean acidification is a result of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The international community dealing with climate change must play a decisive role in encouraging national and local governments to scale-up efforts to mitigate CO2 emissions thereby reducing the impact of both climate change and ocean acidification. The annual UNFCCC meeting, Conference of the Parties (COP) represent pivotal opportunities for the ocean science community to provide the international community dealing with climate change with information and recommendations leading to informed solutions and policy guidelines that address ocean acidification. The objective is to develop a comprehensive message about the relevance of ocean acidification in current and future governance agendas. The target audiences include the international community dealing with climate change, climate negotiators, national leaders, UN agencies and Non-governmental Organisations, as well as the parties involved in the UNFCCC process.