Simulation of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment with an individual-based model and comparison with field data

An individual-based model (IBM) for the simulation of year-to-year survival during the early life-history stages of the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) was developed within the EU funded Shelf-Edge Advection, Mortality and Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. The IBM included transport, growth and survival and was used to track the passive movement of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae and determine their distribution and abundance after approximately 2 months of drift. One of the main outputs from the IBM, namely distributions and numbers of surviving post-larvae, are compared with field data as recruit (age-0/age-1 juveniles) distribution and abundance for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000. The juvenile distributions show more inter-annual and spatial variability than the modelled distributions of survivors; this may be due to the restriction of using the same initial egg distribution for all 3 yr of simulation. The IBM simulations indicate two main recruitment areas for the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel, these being Porcupine Bank and the south-eastern Bay of Biscay. These areas correspond to areas of high juvenile catches, although the juveniles generally have a more widespread distribution than the model simulations. The best agreement between modelled data and field data for distribution (juveniles and model survivors) is for the year 1998. The juvenile catches in different representative nursery areas are totalled to give a field abundance index (FAI). This index is compared with a model survivor index (MSI) which is calculated from the total of survivors for the whole spawning season. The MSI compares favourably with the FAI for 1998 and 1999 but not for 2000; in this year, juvenile catches dropped sharply compared with the previous years but there was no equivalent drop in modelled survivors.

The global distribution of phytoplankton size spectrum and size classes from their light-absorption spectra derived from satellite data

The absorption spectra of phytoplankton in the visible domain hold implicit information on the phytoplankton community structure. Here we use this information to retrieve quantitative information on phytoplankton size structure by developing a novel method to compute the exponent of an assumed power-law for their particle-size spectrum. This quantity, in combination with total chlorophyll-a concentration, can be used to estimate the fractional concentration of chlorophyll in any arbitrarily-defined size class of phytoplankton. We further define and derive expressions for two distinct measures of cell size of mixed. populations, namely, the average spherical diameter of a bio-optically equivalent homogeneous population of cells of equal size, and the average equivalent spherical diameter of a population of cells that follow a power-law particle-size distribution. The method relies on measurements of two quantities of a phytoplankton sample: the concentration of chlorophyll-a, which is an operational index of phytoplankton biomass, and the total absorption coefficient of phytoplankton in the red peak of visible spectrum at 676 nm. A sensitivity analysis confirms that the relative errors in the estimates of the exponent of particle size spectra are reasonably low. The exponents of phytoplankton size spectra, estimated for a large set of in situ data from a variety of oceanic environments (similar to 2400 samples), are within a reasonable range; and the estimated fractions of chlorophyll in pico-, nano- and micro-phytoplankton are generally consistent with those obtained by an independent, indirect method based on diagnostic pigments determined using high-performance liquid chromatography. The estimates of cell size for in situ samples dominated by different phytoplankton types (diatoms, prymnesiophytes, Prochlorococcus, other cyanobacteria and green algae) yield nominal sizes consistent with the taxonomic classification. To estimate the same quantities from satellite-derived ocean-colour data, we combine our method with algorithms for obtaining inherent optical properties from remote sensing. The spatial distribution of the size-spectrum exponent and the chlorophyll fractions of pico-, nano- and micro-phytoplankton estimated from satellite remote sensing are in agreement with the current understanding of the biogeography of phytoplankton functional types in the global oceans. This study contributes to our understanding of the distribution and time evolution of phytoplankton size structure in the global oceans.

Epipelagic mesozooplankton distribution and abundance over the Mascarene Plateau and Basin, south-western Indian Ocean

The crescent shaped Mascarene Plateau (southwestern Indian Ocean), some 2200 km in length, forms a partial barrier to the (predominantly westward) flow of the South Equatorial Current. Shallow areas of the Mascarene Plateau effectively form a large shelf sea without an associated coastline. Zooplankton sampling transects were made across the plateau and also the basin to the west, to investigate the role the partial interruption of flow has on zooplankton biomass and community structure over the region. Biomass data from Optical Plankton Counter (OPC) analysis, and variability in community structure from taxonomic analysis, appear to indicate that the obstruction by the plateau causes upwelling, nutrient enrichment and enhanced chlorophyll and secondary production levels downstream. The Mascarene Basin is clearly distinguishable from the ridge itself, and from the waters to the south and north, both in terms of size-distributed zooplankton biomass and community structure. Satellite remote sensing data, particularly remotely-sensed ocean colour imagery and the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), indicate support for this hypothesis. A correlation was found between OPC biovolume and SSHA and sea surface temperature (SST), which may indicate the physical processes driving mesozooplankton variability in this area. Biomass values away from the influence of the ridge averaged 24 mg m-3, but downstream if the ridge biomass averaged 263 mg m-3. Copepods comprised 60% of the mean total organisms. Calanoid copepods varied considerably between regions, being lowest away from the influence of the plateau, where higher numbers of the cyclopoid copepods Oithona spp., Corycaeus spp. and Oncaea spp., and the harpacticoid Microsetella spp. were found.

Use of satellite data for modelling food availability and survival of marine fish larvae

A modelling scheme is described which uses satellite retrieved sea-surface temperature and chlorophyll-a to derive monthly zooplankton biomass estimates in the eastern North Atlantic; this forms part of a bio-physical model of inter-annual variations in the growth and survival of larvae and post-larvae of mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The temperature and chlorophyll data are incorporated first to model copepod (Calanus) egg production rates. Egg production is then converted to available food using distribution data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, observed population biomass per unit daily egg production and the proportion of the larval mackerel diet comprising Calanus. Results are validated in comparison with field observations of zooplankton biomass. The principal benefit of the modelling scheme is the ability to use the combination of broad scale coverage and fine scale temporal and spatial variability of satellite data as driving forces in the model; weaknesses are the simplicity of the egg production model and the broad-scale generalizations assumed in the raising factors to convert egg production to biomass.

Distribution and abundance of sardine (Sardina pilchardus) eggs in the English Channel from Continuous Plankton Recorder sampling

Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples from the English Channel and adjacent Celtic shelf, taken over the period 1958-1980, were analysed for sardine (Sardina pilchardus) eggs. Results showed the progression of sardine spawning along the English Channel from west to east from March to August and a return from east to west from September to November. This corresponds with the two seasonal peaks of sardine egg abundance in the western Channel: the main summer peak being in May/June, with a smaller autumn peak in October/November. Long-term changes in sardine egg abundance in CPR samples showed a decline in summer spawning from the late 1960s, but no clear trend in autumn-spawned egg abundance. Similar patterns were observed in the numbers of sardine eggs sampled by conventional plankton net tows at the time-series Station L5 off Plymouth. This supports the use of the longer time-series of sardine egg data at L5 as being representative of a wider area and emphasizes the importance in continuation of the L5 time-series.

Summarising spatial and temporal information in CPR data

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey provides pan-oceanic data on geographic distribution, species composition, seasonal cycles of abundance, and long-term change during the last 70 years. In this paper we compare and contrast some of the historic data-analytic protocols of the survey, focusing primarily on the various means by which spatio-temporal information in CPR data has been exposed. Relative strengths and limitations are assessed, followed by suggestions for future approaches to the visualisation and summarising of CPR data.

Population-Growth And Vertical-Distribution Of Calanus-Helgolandicus In The Celtic Sea

Calanus helgolandicus over-winters in the shallow waters (100 m) of the Celtic Sea as copepodite stages V and VI; the minimum temperature in winter is approximately 8.0°C. This over-wintering is not a true hibernation or dormacy, accompanied by a reduced metabolic state with a discontinuation of feeding and development, but more of a lowered activity, involving reduced feeding and development, with predation on available microzooplankton and detritus. Analysis of specimens from the winter population showed that copepodite stages V and VI were actively feeding and still producing and possibly liberating eggs. The absence of late nauplii and young copepodites in the water column until late March indicated that there must be a high mortality of these winter cohorts. The copepodites of the first generation appeared in April–May, the younger stages, copepodites I to III, being distributed deeper in the water column below the euphotic zone and thermocline. This distribution would contribute to amuch slower rate of development. By August the ontogenetic vertical distributions observed in the copepodites were reversed, the younger stages occuring in the warmer surface layers within the euphotic zone. Diurnal migrations were observed in the later copepodites only, the younger stages I to III either remaining deep in spring or shallow in summer. The causal mechanisms which alter the behaviour of the young copepodites remain unexplained. The development of the population of Calanus helgolandicus in 1978, reaching its peak of abundance in August, was typical for the shelf seas around U.K. as observed from Continuous Plankton Recorder data, 1958 to 1977.

Plankton Of The Fladen Ground During Flex-76 .3. Vertical-Distribution Population-Dynamics And Production Of Calanus-Finmarchicus (Crustacea Copepoda)

Samples taken in the northern North Sea with the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), the Undulating Oceanographic Recorder (UOR), the Longhurst Hardy Plankton Recorder (LHPR) and by our colleagues from other participating Institutes during the Fladen Ground Experiment (FLEX 76) were used to describe the vertical distribution and population dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus (Gunnerus) and to provide estimates of the production and carbon budget of the population from 19 March to 3 June, 1976. Total production of the 19 March to 3 June, 1976. Total production of the nauplii and copepodite stages (including adults), during the exponential growth phase in May, was estimated to be in the range of 0.49 to 0.91 g C m-2 d-1 or 29.0 to 55 g dry wt m-2 (14.5 to 27.8 g C m-2) for the three successive 10 d periods in May. Two gross growth efficiencies (K 1) (20 and 34%), together with the lower value of C. finmarchicus production, were used to calculate the gross ingestion levels of algae as 2.45 and 1.44 g C m-2 d-1 (73.5 and 43.2 g C m-2 over the May period). These ingestion levels, together with the algae ingested by other zooplankton species, are greater than the estimated total phytoplankton production of 45.9 g C m-2 over the FLEX period. A number of factors are discussed which could explain the discrepancies between the production estimates. One suggestion is that the vertical distribution of the development stages of this herbivorous copepod and their diel and ontogenetic migration patterns enable it to efficiently exploit its food source. Data from the FLEX experiment indicated that the depletion of nutrients limited the size of the spring bloom, but that it was the grazing pressure exerted by C. finmarchicus which was responsible for the control and depletion of the phytoplankton in the spring of 1976 in the northern North Sea.

Distribution Of Sublittoral Macrofauna Communities In Bristol Channel In Relation To Substrate

Grab and dredge samples have been collected on a grid of 155 sublittoral stations in the Bristol Channel. The faunal data have been analysed using a hierarchical sorting technique to cluster stations with similar species compositions. At a similarity level of 18%, groups of stations with a species composition similar to the classical Petersen communities were defined. Three of Petersen's communities were recognized in the outer part of the Channel, the Venus, Abra and Modiolus communities. The fauna of the inner part of the Channel is reduced and does not correspond with any previously recognized community type. Possible causes for this faunal reduction are discussed. The substrate distribution and the macrofaunal community distribution are mapped. Side-scan sonograms are shown to be a useful adjunct to the interpretation of faunal distributions.

Columnar aerosol properties in a northeastern atlantic site (plymouth united kingdom) by means of ground based skyradiometer data during years 2000-2008.

Between 2000 and 2008, columnar optical and radiative properties were measured at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), UK (50° 21.95′N, 4° 8.85′W) using an automatic Prede POM01L sun–sky photometer. The database was analyzed for aerosol optical properties using the SKYRAD radiative inversion algorithm and calibrated using the in situ SKYIL calibration method. Retrievals include aerosol optical depth, Ångström wavelength exponent, aerosol volume distribution, refractive index and single scattering albedo. The results show that the Plymouth site is characterized by low values of aerosol optical depth with low variability (0.18 ± 0.08 at 500 nm) and a mean annual Ångström exponent of 1.03 ± 0.21. The annual mean of the single scattering albedo is 0.97, indicative of non-absorbing aerosols. The aerosol properties were classified in terms of air mass back trajectories: the area is mainly affected by Atlantic air masses and the dominant aerosol type is a mixture of maritime particles, present in low burdens with variable size. The maritime air masses were defined by annual mean values for the AOD (at 500 nm) of 0.13–0.14 and a wavelength exponent of 0.96–1.03. Episodic anthropogenic and mineral dust intrusions occasionally occur, but they are sporadic and dilute (AOD at 500 nm about 0.20). Tropical continental air masses were characterized by the highest AOD at 500 nm (0.34) and the lowest wavelength exponent (0.83), although they were the least represented in the analysis.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Coccolithophore surface distributions in the North Atlantic and their modulation of the air-sea flux of CO2 from 10 years of satellite Earth observation data

Coccolithophores are the primary oceanic phytoplankton responsible for the production of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). These climatically important plankton play a key role in the oceanic carbon cycle as a major contributor of carbon to the open ocean carbonate pump (similar to 50 %) and their calcification can affect the atmosphere-to-ocean (air-sea) uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) through increasing the seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)). Here we document variations in the areal extent of surface blooms of the globally important coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi, in the North Atlantic over a 10-year period (1998-2007), using Earth observation data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). We calculate the annual mean sea surface areal coverage of E. huxleyi in the North Atlantic to be 474 000 +/- 104 000 km(2), which results in a net CaCO3 carbon (CaCO3-C) production of 0.14-1.71 Tg CaCO3-C per year. However, this surface coverage (and, thus, net production) can fluctuate inter-annually by -54/+81% about the mean value and is strongly correlated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate oscillation index (r = 0.75, p < 0.02). Our analysis evaluates the spatial extent over which the E. huxleyi blooms in the North Atlantic can increase the pCO(2) and, thus, decrease the localised air-sea flux of atmospheric CO2. In regions where the blooms are prevalent, the average reduction in the monthly air-sea CO2 flux can reach 55%. The maximum reduction of the monthly air-sea CO2 flux in the time series is 155 %. This work suggests that the high variability, frequency and distribution of these calcifying plankton and their impact on pCO(2) should be considered if we are to fully understand the variability of the North Atlantic air-to-sea flux of CO2. We estimate that these blooms can reduce the annual N. Atlantic net sink atmospheric CO2 by between 3-28 %.

Long-term changes in abundance and distribution of microzooplankton in the NE Atlantic and North Sea

Long-term changes in mesozooplankton and phytoplankton populations have been well documented in the North Atlantic region, whereas data for microzooplankton are scarce. This neglected component of the plankton is a vital link in marine food-webs, grazing on smaller flagellates and cyanobacteria and in turn providing food for the larger mesozooplankton. We use the latest tintinnid (Ciliophora, Protista) data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey in the NE Atlantic and North Sea to examine the phenology, distribution and abundance of this important group of ciliates. Presence/absence data came from 167 122 CPR samples collected between 1960 and 2009 and abundance data from 49 662 samples collected between 1996 and 2009. In the North Atlantic the genus Dictyocysta spp. dominated and Parafavella gigantea showed an increase in abundance around Iceland and Greenland. In the North Sea higher densities of Tintinnopsis spp., Favella serrata and Ptychocylis spp. were found. The presence of tintinnids in CPR samples collected in the North Atlantic has increased over the last 50 years and the seasonal window of high abundance has lengthened. Conversely in the North Sea there has been an overall reduction in abundance. We discuss possible drivers for these long-term changes and point the way forward to more holistic studies that examine how ecosystems, rather than just selected taxa, are responding to climate change.

Effects of environmental conditions on the seasonal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the North Sea

We study the spatial and seasonal variability of phytoplankton biomass (as phytoplankton color) in relation to the environmental conditions in the North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. By using only environmental fields and location as predictor variables we developed a nonparametric model (generalized additive model) to empirically explore how key environmental factors modulate the spatio-temporal patterns of the seasonal cycle of algal biomass as well as how these relate to the ,1988 North Sea regime shift. Solar radiation, as manifest through changes of sea surface temperature (SST), was a key factor not only in the seasonal cycle but also as a driver of the shift. The pronounced increase in SST and in wind speed after the 1980s resulted in an extension of the season favorable for phytoplankton growth. Nutrients appeared to be unimportant as explanatory variables for the observed spatio-temporal pattern, implying that they were not generally limiting factors. Under the new climatic regime the carrying capacity of the whole system has been increased and the southern North Sea, where the environmental changes have been more pronounced, reached a new maximum.

Bottom-up effects of climate on fish populations: data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) dataset on fish larvae has an extensive spatio-temporal coverage that allows the responses of fish populations to past changes in climate variability, including abrupt changes such as regime shifts, to be investigated. The newly available dataset offers a unique opportunity to investigate long-term changes over decadal scales in the abundance and distribution of fish larvae in relation to physical and biological factors. A principal component analysis (PCA) using 7 biotic and abiotic parameters is applied to investigate the impact of environmental changes in the North Sea on 5 selected taxa of fish larvae during the period 1960 to 2004. The analysis revealed 4 periods of time (1960–1976; 1977–1982; 1983–1996; 1997–2004) reflecting 3 different ecosystem states. The larvae of clupeids, sandeels, dab and gadoids seemed to be affected mainly by changes in the plankton ecosystem, while the larvae of migratory species such as Atlantic mackerel responded more to hydrographic changes. Climate variability seems more likely to influence fish populations through bottom-up control via a cascading effect from changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impacting on the hydro dynamic features of the North Sea, in turn impacting on the plankton available as prey for fish larvae. The responses and adaptability of fish larvae to changing environmental conditions, parti cularly to changes in prey availability, are complex and species-specific. This complexity is enhanced with fishing effects interacting with climate effects and this study supports furthering our under - standing of such interactions before attempting to predict how fish populations respond to climate variability