Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.

Phaeocystis colony distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean since 1948, and interpretation of long-term changes in the Phaeocystis hotspot in the North Sea

Monitoring of Phaeocystis since 1948 during the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey indicates that over the last 5.5 decades the distribution of its colonies in the North Atlantic Ocean was not restricted to neritic waters: occurrence was also recorded in the open Atlantic regions sampled, most frequently in the spring. Apparently, environmental conditions in open ocean waters, also those far oVshore, are suitable for complete lifecycle development of colonies (the only stage recorded in the survey). In the North Sea the frequency of occurrence was also highest in spring. Its southeastern part was the Phaeocystis abundance hotspot of the whole area covered by the survey. Frequency was especially high before the 1960s and after the 1980s, i.e., in the periods when anthropogenic nutrient enrichment was relatively low. Changes in eutrophication have obviously not been a major cause of long-term Phaeocystis variation in the southeastern North Sea, where total phytoplankton biomass was related signiWcantly to river discharge. Evidence is presented for the suggestion that Phaeocystis abundance in the southern North Sea is to a large extent determined by the amount of Atlantic Ocean water Xushed in through the Dover Strait. Since Phaeocystis plays a key role in element Xuxes relevant to climate the results presented here have implications for biogeochemical models of cycling of carbon and sulphur. Sea-to-air exchange of CO2 and dimethyl sulphide (DMS) has been calculated on the basis of measurements during single-year cruises. The considerable annual variation in phytoplankton and in its Phaeocystis component reported here does not warrant extrapolation of such figures.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.

Probabilistic Models to Describe the Dynamics of Migrating Microbial Communities

In all but the most sterile environments bacteria will reside in fluid being transported through conduits and some of these will attach and grow as biofilms on the conduit walls. The concentration and diversity of bacteria in the fluid at the point of delivery will be a mix of those when it entered the conduit and those that have become entrained into the flow due to seeding from biofilms. Examples include fluids through conduits such as drinking water pipe networks, endotracheal tubes, catheters and ventilation systems. Here we present two probabilistic models to describe changes in the composition of bulk fluid microbial communities as they are transported through a conduit whilst exposed to biofilm communities. The first (discrete) model simulates absolute numbers of individual cells, whereas the other (continuous) model simulates the relative abundance of taxa in the bulk fluid. The discrete model is founded on a birth-death process whereby the community changes one individual at a time and the numbers of cells in the system can vary. The continuous model is a stochastic differential equation derived from the discrete model and can also accommodate changes in the carrying capacity of the bulk fluid. These models provide a novel Lagrangian framework to investigate and predict the dynamics of migrating microbial communities. In this paper we compare the two models, discuss their merits, possible applications and present simulation results in the context of drinking water distribution systems. Our results provide novel insight into the effects of stochastic dynamics on the composition of non-stationary microbial communities that are exposed to biofilms and provides a new avenue for modelling microbial dynamics in systems where fluids are being transported.