Seasonal plankton dynamics along a cross-shelf gradient off northern Spain

The development of population models able to reproduce the dynamics of zooplankton is a central issue when trying to understand how a changing environment would affect zooplankton in the future. Using 10 years of monthly data on phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance in the Bay of Biscay from the IEO's RADIALES time-series programme, we built non-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) able to reproduce the dynamics of plankton on the basis of environmental factors (nutrients, temperature, upwelling and photoperiod). We found that the interaction between these two plankton components is approximately linear, whereas the effects of environmental factors are non-linear. With the inclusion of the environmental variability, the main seasonal and inter-annual dynamic patterns observed within the studied plankton assemblage indicate the prevalence of bottom-up regulatory control. The statistically deduced models were used to simulate the dynamics of the phytoplankton and zooplankton. A good agreement between observations and simulations was obtained, especially for zooplankton. We are presently developing spatio-temporal GAM models for the North Sea based on the Continuous Plankton Recorder database.