Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Evaluation of the new ESR network software for the retrieval of direct sun products from cimel ce318 and prede pom01 sun-sky radiometers.

The European Skynet Radiometers network (EuroSkyRad or ESR) has been recently established as a research network of European PREDE sun-sky radiometers. Moreover, ESR is federated with SKYNET, an international network of PREDE sun-sky radiometers mostly present in East Asia. In contrast to SKYNET, the European network also integrates users of the CIMEL CE318 sky–sun photometer. Keeping instrumental duality in mind, a set of open source algorithms has been developed consisting of two modules for (1) the retrieval of direct sun products (aerosol optical depth, wavelength exponent and water vapor) from the sun extinction measurements; and (2) the inversion of the sky radiance to derive other aerosol optical properties such as size distribution, single scattering albedo or refractive index. In this study we evaluate the ESR direct sun products in comparison with the AERosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) products. Specifically, we have applied the ESR algorithm to a CIMEL CE318 and PREDE POM simultaneously for a 4-yr database measured at the Burjassot site (Valencia, Spain), and compared the resultant products with the AERONET direct sun measurements obtained with the same CIMEL CE318 sky–sun photometer. The comparison shows that aerosol optical depth differences are mostly within the nominal uncertainty of 0.003 for a standard calibration instrument, and fall within the nominal AERONET uncertainty of 0.01–0.02 for a field instrument in the spectral range 340 to 1020 nm. In the cases of the Ångström exponent and the columnar water vapor, the differences are lower than 0.02 and 0.15 cm, respectively. Therefore, we present an open source code program that can be used with both CIMEL and PREDE sky radiometers and whose results are equivalent to AERONET and SKYNET retrievals.