North Atlantic climatic signals and the plankton of the European Continental Shelf

Climatic variability on the European Continental Shelf is dominated by events over the North Atlantic Ocean, and in particular by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is essentially a winter phenomenon, and its effects will be felt most strongly by populations for which winter conditions are critical. One example is the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, whose northern North Sea populations overwinter at depth in the North Atlantic. Its annual abundance in this region is strongly dependent on water transports at the end of the winter, and hence on the NAO index. Variations in the NAO give rise to changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, with additional perturbations arising from El Ni (n) over tildeo - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Pacific, and these changes can be delayed by several years because of the adjustment time of the ocean circulation. One measure of the circulation is the latitude of the north wall of the Gulf Stream (GSNW index). Interannual variations in the plankton of the Shelf Seas show strong correlations with the fluctuations of the GSNW index, which are the result of Atlantic-wide atmospheric processes. These associations imply that the interannual variations are climatically induced rather than due to natural fluctuations of the marine ecosystem, and that the zooplankton populations have not been significantly affected by anthropogenic processes such as nutrient enrichment or fishing pressure. While the GSNW index represents a response to atmospheric changes over two or more years, the zooplankton populations correlated with it have generation times of a few weeks. The simplest explanation for the associations between the zooplankton and the GSNW index is that the plankton are responding to weather patterns propagating downstream from the Gulf Stream system. It seems that these meteorological processes operate in the spring. Although it has been suggested that there was a regime shift in the North Sea in the late 1980s, examination of the time-series by the cumulative sum (CUSUM) technique shows that any changes in the zooplankton of the central and northern North Sea are consistent with the background climatic variability. The abundance of total copepods increased during this period but this change does not represent a dramatic change in ecosystem processes. It is possible some change may have occurred at the end of the time-series in the years 1997 and 1998.

Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Seasonal dynamics of the carbonate system in the Western English Channel

We present over 900 carbonate system observations collected over four years (2007–2010) in the Western English Channel (WEC). We determined CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), Total Alkalinity (TA) and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) along a series of 40 km transects, including two oceanographic stations (L4 and E1) within a sustained coastal observatory. Our data follow a seasonal pattern of CO2 undersaturation from January to August, followed by supersaturation in September–October and a return to near-equilibrium thereafter. This pattern is explained by the interplay of thermal and biological sinks in winter and spring–summer, respectively, followed by the breakdown of stratification and mixing with deeper, high-CO2 water in autumn. The drawdown of DIC and inorganic N between March and June with a C:N ratio of 8.7–9.5 was consistent with carbon over-consumption during phytoplankton growth. Monthly mean surface pCO2 was strongly correlated with depth integrated chlorophyll a highlighting the importance of subsurface chlorophyll a maxima in controlling C-fluxes in shelf seas. Mixing of seawater with riverine freshwater in near-shore samples caused a reduction in TA and the saturation state of calcite minerals, particularly in winter. Our data show that the L4 and E1 oceanographic stations were small, net sinks for atmospheric CO2 over an annual cycle (−0.52±0.66 mol C m−2 y−1 and −0.62±0.49 mol C m−2 y−1, respectively).

Validation of the NEMO-ERSEM operational ecosystem model for the North West European Continental Shelf

This paper details updates to the Met Office's operational coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model from the 7 km Medium-Resolution Continental Shelf – POLCOMS-ERSEM (MRCS-PE) system (Siddorn et al., 2007) to the 7 km Atlantic Margin Model NEMO-ERSEM (AMM7-NE) system. We also provide a validation of the ecosystem component of the new operational system. Comparisons have been made between the model variables and available in situ, satellite and climatological data. The AMM7-NE system has also been benchmarked against the MRCS-PE system. The transition to the new AMM7-NE system was successful and it has been running operationally since March 2012 and has been providing products through MyOcean (http://www.myocean.eu.org) since that time. The results presented herein show the AMM7-NE system performs better than the MRCS-PE system with the most improvement in the model nutrient fields. The problem of nutrient accumulation in the MRCS-PE system appears to be solved in the new AMM7-NE system with nutrient fields improved throughout the domain as discussed in Sect. 4. Improvements in model chlorophyll are also seen but are more modest.

Priority research questions for the UK food system

The rise of food security up international political, societal and academic agendas has led to increasing interest in novel means of improving primary food production and reducing waste. There are however, also many 'post-farm gate' activities that are critical to food security, including processing, packaging, distributing, retailing, cooking and consuming. These activities all affect a range of important food security elements, notably availability, affordability and other aspects of access, nutrition and safety. Addressing the challenge of universal food security, in the context of a number of other policy goals (e.g. social, economic and environmental sustainability), is of keen interest to a range of UK stakeholders but requires an up-to-date evidence base and continuous innovation. An exercise was therefore conducted, under the auspices of the UK Global Food Security Programme, to identify priority research questions with a focus on the UK food system (though the outcomes may be broadly applicable to other developed nations). Emphasis was placed on incorporating a wide range of perspectives ('world views') from different stakeholder groups: policy, private sector, non-governmental organisations, advocacy groups and academia. A total of 456 individuals submitted 820 questions from which 100 were selected by a process of online voting and a three-stage workshop voting exercise. These 100 final questions were sorted into 10 themes and the 'top' question for each theme identified by a further voting exercise. This step also allowed four different stakeholder groups to select the top 7-8 questions from their perspectives. Results of these voting exercises are presented. It is clear from the wide range of questions prioritised in this exercise that the different stakeholder groups identified specific research needs on a range of post-farm gate activities and food security outcomes. Evidence needs related to food affordability, nutrition and food safety (all key elements of food security) featured highly in the exercise. While there were some questions relating to climate impacts on production, other important topics for food security (e.g. trade, transport, preference and cultural needs) were not viewed as strongly by the participants.

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

The significance of nitrogen regeneration for new production within a filament of the Mauritanian upwelling system

The Lagrangian progression of a biological community was followed in a filament of the Mauritanian upwelling system, north-west Africa, during offshore advection. The inert dual tracers sulfur hexafluoride and helium-3 labelled a freshly upwelled patch of water that was mapped for 8 days. Changes in biological, physical, and chemical characteristics were measured, including phytoplankton productivity, nitrogen assimilation, and regeneration. Freshly upwelled water contained high nutrient concentrations but was depleted in N compared to Redfield stoichiometry. The highest rate of primary productivity was measured on the continental shelf, associated with high rates of nitrogen assimilation and a phytoplankton community dominated by diatoms and flagellates. Indicators of phytoplankton abundance and activity decreased as the labelled water mass transited the continental shelf slope into deeper water, possibly linked to the mixed layer depth exceeding the light penetration depth. By the end of the study, the primary productivity rate decreased and was associated with lower rates of nitrogen assimilation and lower nutrient concentrations. Nitrogen regeneration and assimilation took place simultaneously. Results highlighted the importance of regenerated NHC 4 in sustaining phytoplankton productivity and indicate that the upwelled NO3 pool contained an increasing fraction of regenerated NO3 as it advected offshore. By calculating this fraction and incorporating it into an f ratio formulation, we estimated that of the 12:38Tg C of annual regional production, 4:73Tg C was exportable.

The significance of nitrogen regeneration for new production within a filament of the Mauritanian upwelling system

The Lagrangian progression of a biological community was followed in a filament of the Mauritanian upwelling system, north-west Africa, during offshore advection. The inert dual tracers sulfur hexafluoride and helium-3 labelled a freshly upwelled patch of water that was mapped for 8 days. Changes in biological, physical, and chemical characteristics were measured, including phytoplankton productivity, nitrogen assimilation, and regeneration. Freshly upwelled water contained high nutrient concentrations but was depleted in N compared to Redfield stoichiometry. The highest rate of primary productivity was measured on the continental shelf, associated with high rates of nitrogen assimilation and a phytoplankton community dominated by diatoms and flagellates. Indicators of phytoplankton abundance and activity decreased as the labelled water mass transited the continental shelf slope into deeper water, possibly linked to the mixed layer depth exceeding the light penetration depth. By the end of the study, the primary productivity rate decreased and was associated with lower rates of nitrogen assimilation and lower nutrient concentrations. Nitrogen regeneration and assimilation took place simultaneously. Results highlighted the importance of regenerated NHC 4 in sustaining phytoplankton productivity and indicate that the upwelled NO3 pool contained an increasing fraction of regenerated NO3 as it advected offshore. By calculating this fraction and incorporating it into an f ratio formulation, we estimated that of the 12:38Tg C of annual regional production, 4:73Tg C was exportable.

Descriptions of Scottish Priority Marine Features (PMFs).

Background The seas around Scotland are rich and diverse – Scotland’s position at the edge of the continental shelf, the long coastline, large area of sea and the mixing of warm and coldwater currents combine to make its waters a special place for marine wildlife and habitats. Scotland has over 18,000 km of coastline and its inshore and offshore areas are among the largest of any EU country, representing 13% of all European seas. Scotland’s seas are of outstanding scenic, historical and cultural value and are part of the national identity at home and abroad. The Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and the UK Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 include new powers and duties to ensure that our seas are managed sustainably for future generations, integrating the economic growth of marine industries with the need to protect these assets. Measures to conserve Scotland’s marine natural heritage are based on a three pillar approach, with action at the wider seas level (e.g. marine planning or sectoral controls); specific species conservation measures (e.g. improved protection for seals); and through site protection measures - the identification of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help target action under each of the three pillars, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) have generated a focused list of habitats and species of priority conservation importance - the Priority Marine Features (PMFs). The aim of the current study was to produce a descriptive catalogue of the Scottish PMFs (including component habitats and species where appropriate) to serve as a reference for future nature conservation action. Whilst derived from available existing accounts, the succinct 1-page descriptions are written from a Scottish perspective, refining, but clearly linking to more generic UK, EC or OSPAR (Oslo and Paris Commission) commentary. Available information on the geographic distribution of the features was collated as part of the project and a summary map is provided in each description. Main findings  This project has generated a descriptive catalogue of the 81 PMFs that have been identified in the seas around Scotland (out to the limit of the UK continental shelf). The list comprises 26 broad habitats (e.g. burrowed mud), seven low or limited mobility species (e.g. ocean quahog) and 48 mobile species, including fish (e.g. blue ling) and marine mammals (e.g. minke whale).  Information on the distribution of the PMFs was collated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). This is the first time that data about such a diverse range of Scottish marine nature conservation interests have been compiled within a single repository. These data have and will be used in conjunction with other contextual base-mapping to inform the development of nature conservation advice and commentary (e.g. in the production of the Scotland’s Marine Atlas - Baxter et al., 2011).  The feature distribution mapping used in the production of this report is being made available to view online via the National Marine Plan Interactive web portal (NMPi - http://www.gov.scot/Topics/marine/seamanagement/nmpihome). As new or refined data on Scottish PMFs become available, these will be fed into updates to the project geodatabase and NMPi.

Descriptions of Scottish Priority Marine Features (PMFs).

Background The seas around Scotland are rich and diverse – Scotland’s position at the edge of the continental shelf, the long coastline, large area of sea and the mixing of warm and coldwater currents combine to make its waters a special place for marine wildlife and habitats. Scotland has over 18,000 km of coastline and its inshore and offshore areas are among the largest of any EU country, representing 13% of all European seas. Scotland’s seas are of outstanding scenic, historical and cultural value and are part of the national identity at home and abroad. The Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and the UK Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 include new powers and duties to ensure that our seas are managed sustainably for future generations, integrating the economic growth of marine industries with the need to protect these assets. Measures to conserve Scotland’s marine natural heritage are based on a three pillar approach, with action at the wider seas level (e.g. marine planning or sectoral controls); specific species conservation measures (e.g. improved protection for seals); and through site protection measures - the identification of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help target action under each of the three pillars, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) have generated a focused list of habitats and species of priority conservation importance - the Priority Marine Features (PMFs). The aim of the current study was to produce a descriptive catalogue of the Scottish PMFs (including component habitats and species where appropriate) to serve as a reference for future nature conservation action. Whilst derived from available existing accounts, the succinct 1-page descriptions are written from a Scottish perspective, refining, but clearly linking to more generic UK, EC or OSPAR (Oslo and Paris Commission) commentary. Available information on the geographic distribution of the features was collated as part of the project and a summary map is provided in each description. Main findings  This project has generated a descriptive catalogue of the 81 PMFs that have been identified in the seas around Scotland (out to the limit of the UK continental shelf). The list comprises 26 broad habitats (e.g. burrowed mud), seven low or limited mobility species (e.g. ocean quahog) and 48 mobile species, including fish (e.g. blue ling) and marine mammals (e.g. minke whale).  Information on the distribution of the PMFs was collated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). This is the first time that data about such a diverse range of Scottish marine nature conservation interests have been compiled within a single repository. These data have and will be used in conjunction with other contextual base-mapping to inform the development of nature conservation advice and commentary (e.g. in the production of the Scotland’s Marine Atlas - Baxter et al., 2011).  The feature distribution mapping used in the production of this report is being made available to view online via the National Marine Plan Interactive web portal (NMPi - http://www.gov.scot/Topics/marine/seamanagement/nmpihome). As new or refined data on Scottish PMFs become available, these will be fed into updates to the project geodatabase and NMPi.