12 resultados para Consistent Conditional Correlation

em Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA)


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The spatial and temporal distributions of some radionuclides in effluents originating from the British Nuclear Fuels Ltd (BNFL) reprocessing plant at Windscale, which are released into the Irish Sea, have been studied in sediments at 16 sites in the salt marsh region near Newbiggin on the Esk estuary Cumbria, England. The concentration of non-conservative radionuclides in surface sediments of the area cannot be described by a single parameter, but there is a high correlation with organic C, Cu, Al and the Si : Al ratio with particle size. The preservation of the historical record of the BNFL effluents in the Esk sediments is dependent on the hydrology of the area, as it effects such processes as accretion, erosion and remixing. From the 106Ru and 210Po concentrations and the 137Cs : 134Cs ratio in the sediment profiles with depth, we have identified these processes. Sedimentation rates at sites of accretion vary between 0·5 and 3 cm year−1. However, at some sites they appear to be much higher, approximately 6 cm year−1 in the top 10 cm, but they are not consistent throughout the depth profiles. This may be a true reflection of variable accretion related to sediment type, or one which is influenced by surficial mixing. Some cores showed evidence of continuous accretion but no significant radioactivity was detected at depths below 35–40 cm, indicating an overall sedimentation rate of approximately 1·5 cm year−1 for the 25–30-year period since BNFL effluents first entered the Irish Sea.

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This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. The 30-minute Ship-Borne Wave Recorder measurements of Hmax and Hs are shown to be consistent with theoretical wave distributions. The linear regression between Hmax and Hs has a slope of 1.53. Neither Hs nor Hmax show a significant trend in the period 2000–2009. These data are combined with earlier observations. The long-term trend over the period 1980–2009 in annual Hs is 2.72 ± 0.88 cm/year. Mean Hs and Hmax are both correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during winter. The correlation with the NAO index is highest for the more frequently encountered (75th percentile) wave heights. The wave field variability associated with the NAO index is reconstructed using a 500-year NAO index record. Hs and H max are found to vary by up to 1.42 m and 3.10 m respectively over the 500-year period. Trends in all 30-year segments of the reconstructed wave field are lower than the trend in the observations during 1980–2009. The NAO index does not change significantly in 21st century projections from CMIP5 climate models under scenario RCP85, and thus no NAO-related changes are expected in the mean and extreme wave fields of the Norwegian Sea.

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The transfer of gases between the atmosphere and ocean is affected by a number of processes, of which wave action and rainfall are two of potential significance. Efforts have been made to quantify separately their contributions; however such assessments neglect the interaction of these phenomena. Here we look at the correlation statistics of waves and rain to note which regions display a strong association between rainfall and the local sea state. The conditional probability of rain varies from ~0.5% to ~15%, with most of the equatorial belt (which contains the ITCZ) showing a greater likelihood of rain at the lowest sea states. In contrast the occurrence of rain is independent of wave height in the Southern Ocean. The 1997/98 El Niño enhances the frequency of rain in some Pacific regions, with this change showing some association with wave conditions.

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In July 2004, dominant populations of microbial ultraplankton (<5 μm), in the surface of the Celtic Sea (between UK and Eire), were repeatedly mapped using flow cytometry, at 1.5 km resolution over a region of diameter 100 km. The numerically dominant representatives of all basic functional types were enumerated including one group of phototrophic bacteria (Syn), two groups of phytoplankton (PP, NP), three groups of heterotrophic bacterioplankton (HB) and the regionally dominant group of heterotrophic protists (HP). The distributions of all organisms showed strong spatial variability with little relation to variability in physical fields such as salinity and temperature. Furthermore, there was little agreement between distributions of different organisms. The only linear correlation consistently explaining more than 50% of the variance between any pairing of the organism groups enumerated is between two different groups of HB. Specifically, no linear, or non-linear, relationship is found between any pairings of SYB, PP or HB groups with their protist predators HP. Looking for multiple dependencies, factor analysis reveals three groupings: Syn, PP and low nucleic acid content HB (LNA); high nucleic acid content HB (HNA); HP and NP. Even the manner in which the spatial variability of Syn, PP and HB abundance varies as a function of lengthscale (represented by a semivariogram) differs significantly from that for HP. In summary, although all microbial planktonic groups enumerated are present and numerically dominant throughout the region studied, at face value the relationships between them seem weak. Nevertheless, the behaviour of a simple, illustrative ecological model, with strongly interacting phototrophs and heterotrophs, with stochastic forcing, is shown to be consistent with the observed poor correlations and differences in how spatial variability varies with lengthscale. Thus, our study suggests that a comparison of microbial abundances alone may not discern strong underlying trophic interactions. Specific knowledge of these processes, in particular grazing, will be required to explain the causes of the observed microbial spatial variability and its resulting consequences for the functioning of the ecosystem.

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Very short-lived halocarbons are significant sources of reactive halogen in the marine boundary layer, and likely in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Quantifying ambient concentrations in the surface ocean and atmosphere is essential for understanding the atmospheric impact of these trace gas fluxes. Despite the body of literature increasing substantially over recent years, calibration issues complicate the comparison of results and limit the utility of building larger-scale databases that would enable further development of the science (e.g. sea-air flux quantification, model validation, etc.). With this in mind, thirty-one scientists from both atmospheric and oceanic halocarbon communities in eight nations gathered in London in February 2008 to discuss the scientific issues and plan an international effort toward developing common calibration scales (http://tinyurl.com/c9cg58). Here, we discuss the outputs from this meeting, suggest the compounds that should be targeted initially, identify opportunities for beginning calibration and comparison efforts, and make recommendations for ways to improve the comparability of previous and future measurements.

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The beam attenuation serves as a proxy for particulate matter and is a key parameter in visibility algorithms for the aquatic environment. It is well known, however, that the beam attenuation is a function of the acceptance angle of the transmissometer used to measure it. Here we compare eight different transmissometers with four different acceptance angles using four different deployment strategies and sites, and find that their mean attenuation values differ markedly and in a consistent way with instrument acceptance angle: smaller acceptance angles provide higher beam attenuation values. This difference is due to variations in scattered light collected with different acceptance angles and is neither constant nor easy to parameterize. Variability (in space or time) in the ratios of beam attenuations measured by two different instruments correlates, in most cases, with the particle size parameter (as expected from Mie theory), but this correlation is often weak and can be the opposite of expectations based on particle size changes. We recommended careful consideration of acceptance angle in applications of beam transmission data especially when comparing data from different instruments. (C) 2009 Optical Society of America

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The ubiquitous marine trace gas dimethyl sulphide (DMS) comprises the greatest natural source of sulphur to the atmosphere and is a key player in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We explore the short term response of DMS and its algal precursor dimethyl sulphoniopropionate (DMSP) production and cycling to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ocean acidification (OA) in five highly replicated 96 h shipboard bioassay experiments from contrasting sites in NW European shelf waters. In general, the response to OA throughout this region showed little variation, despite encompassing a range of biological and biogeochemical conditions. We observed consistent and marked increases in DMS concentrations relative to ambient controls, and decreases in DMSP concentrations. Quantification of rates of specific DMSP synthesis by phytoplankton and bacterial DMS gross production/consumption suggest algal processes dominated the CO2 response, likely due to a physiological response manifested as increases in direct cellular exudation of DMS and/or DMSP lyase enzyme activities. The variables and rates we report increase our understanding of the processes behind the response to OA. This could provide the opportunity to improve upon mesocosm-derived empirical modelling relationships, and move towards a mechanistic approach for predicting future DMS concentrations.

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The ubiquitous marine trace gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) comprises the greatest natural source of sulfur to the atmosphere and is a key player in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We explore the short-term response of DMS production and cycling and that of its algal precursor dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP) to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ocean acidification (OA) in five 96 h shipboard bioassay experiments. Experiments were performed in June and July 2011, using water collected from contrasting sites in NW European waters (Outer Hebrides, Irish Sea, Bay of Biscay, North Sea). Concentrations of DMS and DMSP, alongside rates of DMSP synthesis and DMS production and consumption, were determined during all experiments for ambient CO2 and three high-CO2 treatments (550, 750, 1000 μatm). In general, the response to OA throughout this region showed little variation, despite encompassing a range of biological and biogeochemical conditions. We observed consistent and marked increases in DMS concentrations relative to ambient controls (110% (28–223%) at 550 μatm, 153% (56–295%) at 750 μatm and 225% (79–413%) at 1000 μatm), and decreases in DMSP concentrations (28% (18–40%) at 550 μatm, 44% (18–64%) at 750 μatm and 52% (24–72%) at 1000 μatm). Significant decreases in DMSP synthesis rate constants (μDMSP, d−1) and DMSP production rates (nmol d−1) were observed in two experiments (7–90% decrease), whilst the response under high CO2 from the remaining experiments was generally indistinguishable from ambient controls. Rates of bacterial DMS gross consumption and production gave weak and inconsistent responses to high CO2. The variables and rates we report increase our understanding of the processes behind the response to OA. This could provide the opportunity to improve upon mesocosm-derived empirical modelling relationships and to move towards a mechanistic approach for predicting future DMS concentrations.

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The European Slope Current (SC) is a major section of the warm poleward flow from the Atlantic to the Arctic, which also moderates the exchange of heat, salt, nutrients and carbon between the deep ocean and the European shelf seas. The mean structure of the geostrophic flow, seasonality, interannual variability and long-term trend of SC are appraised with an unprecedented continuous 20-year satellite altimeter dataset. Comparisons with long term in situ data showed a maximum correlation of r2=0.51 between altimeter and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), with similar results for drogued buoy data. Mean geostrophic currents were appraised more comprehensively than previous attempts, and the paths of 4 branches of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and positions of 5 eddies in the region were derived quantitatively. A consistent seasonal cycle in the flow of the SC was found at all 8 sections along the European shelf slope, with maximum poleward flow in the winter and minimum in the summer. The seasonal difference in the altimetry current speed amounted to ~8-10 cm s-1 at the northern sections, but only ~5 cm s-1 on the Bay of Biscay slopes. This extended altimeter dataset indicates significant regional and seasonal variations, and has revealed new insights into the interannual variability of the SC. It is shown that there is a peak poleward flow at most positions along a ~2000 km stretch of the continental slope from Portugal to Scotland during 1995-1997, but this did not clearly relate to the extreme negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the winter of 1995-1996. The speed of the SC exhibited a long term decreasing trend of ~1% per year. By contrast the NAC showed no significant trend over the 20-year period. Major changes in the NAC occurred three times, and these changes followed decreases in the NAO index.