Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios

Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.

Modelling the vertical distribution of eggs of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus)

Measurements were made of the density and settling velocity of eggs of sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), using a density-gradient column. These results were related to observed vertical distributions of eggs obtained from stratified vertical distribution sampling in the Bay of Biscay. Eggs of both species had slightly positive buoyancy in local seawater throughout most of their development until near hatching, when there was a marked increase in density and they became negatively buoyant. The settling velocity of anchovy eggs, which are shaped as prolate ellipsoids, was close to predictions for spherical particles of equivalent volume. An improved model was developed for prediction of the settling velocity of sardine eggs, which are spherical with a relatively large perivitelline volume; this incorporated permeability of the chorion and adjustment of the density of the perivitelline fluid to ambient seawater. Eggs of both species were located mostly in the top 20 m of the water column, in increasing abundance towards the surface. A sub-surface peak of egg abundance was sometimes observed at the pycnocline, particularly where this was pronounced and associated with a low-salinity surface layer. There was a progressive deepening of the depth distributions for successive stages of egg development. Results from this study can be applied for improved plankton sampling of sardine and anchovy eggs and in modelling studies of their vertical distribution.

Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.