The evolving and increasing need for climate change research on the oceans

The 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans was held in Santos, Brazil, in March 2015, convened by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC), and organized locally by the Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo (IO-USP). The symposium was designed to do two things. First, to get updates on new scientific developments that would address recognized uncertainties that remained from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report and to contribute to building bridges between research in the natural and social sciences in respect to the human dimensions of climate change, with a focus on coastal communities, management objectives, governance and adaptation measures. The choice of the venue in Santos, Brazil, was aimed to stimulate and widen this thematic discussion in Latin America and southern Atlantic regions, where there still are important knowledge gaps and scientific, politic and societal challenges to be overcome. The meeting was attended by 280 participants from 38 countries, contributing 336 oral and poster presentations. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of the symposium and introduces a number of papers submitted to this special issue.

Contrasting global genetic patterns in two biologically similar, widespread and invasive Ciona species (Tunicata, Ascidiacea)

Human-mediated dispersal interplays with natural processes and complicates understanding of the biogeographical history of species. This is exemplified by two invasive tunicates, Ciona robusta (formerly Ciona intestinalis type A) and C. intestinalis (formerly Ciona intestinalis type B), globally distributed and sympatric in Europe. By gathering new mitochondrial sequences that were merged with published datasets, we analysed genetic patterns in different regions, with a focus on 1) their sympatric range and 2) allopatric populations in N and S America and southern Europe. In the sympatric range, the two species display contrasting genetic diversity patterns, with low polymorphism in C. robusta supporting the prevalent view of its recent introduction. In the E Pacific, several genetic traits support the non-native status of C. robusta. However, in the NE Pacific, this appraisal requires a complex scenario of introduction and should be further examined supported by extensive sampling efforts in the NW Pacific (putative native range). For C. intestinalis, Bayesian analysis suggested a natural amphi-North Atlantic distribution, casting doubt on its non-native status in the NW Atlantic. This study shows that both natural and human-mediated dispersal have influenced genetic patterns at broad scales; this interaction lessens our ability to confidently ascertain native vs. non-native status of populations, particularly of those species that are globally distributed.

Contrasting global genetic patterns in two biologically similar, widespread and invasive Ciona species (Tunicata, Ascidiacea)

Human-mediated dispersal interplays with natural processes and complicates understanding of the biogeographical history of species. This is exemplified by two invasive tunicates, Ciona robusta (formerly Ciona intestinalis type A) and C. intestinalis (formerly Ciona intestinalis type B), globally distributed and sympatric in Europe. By gathering new mitochondrial sequences that were merged with published datasets, we analysed genetic patterns in different regions, with a focus on 1) their sympatric range and 2) allopatric populations in N and S America and southern Europe. In the sympatric range, the two species display contrasting genetic diversity patterns, with low polymorphism in C. robusta supporting the prevalent view of its recent introduction. In the E Pacific, several genetic traits support the non-native status of C. robusta. However, in the NE Pacific, this appraisal requires a complex scenario of introduction and should be further examined supported by extensive sampling efforts in the NW Pacific (putative native range). For C. intestinalis, Bayesian analysis suggested a natural amphi-North Atlantic distribution, casting doubt on its non-native status in the NW Atlantic. This study shows that both natural and human-mediated dispersal have influenced genetic patterns at broad scales; this interaction lessens our ability to confidently ascertain native vs. non-native status of populations, particularly of those species that are globally distributed.

Is the Russell Cycle a true cycle? Multidecadal zooplankton and climate trends in the western English Channel

The Russell Cycle is one of the classical examples of climate influence on biological oceanography, represented as shifts in the marine plankton over several decades with warm and cool conditions. While the time-series data associated with the phenomenon indicate cyclical patterns, the question remains whether or not the Russell Cycle should be considered a “true cycle”. Zooplankton time-series data from 1924 to 2011 from the western English Channel were analysed with principal component (PC), correlation and spectral analyses to determine the dominant trends, and cyclic frequencies of the Russell Cycle indicators in relation to long-term hydroclimatic indices. PC1 accounted for 37.4% of the variability in the zooplankton data with the main contributions from non-clupeid fish larvae, southwestern zooplankton, and overall zooplankton biovolume. For PC2 (14.6% of data variance), the dominant groups were northern fish larvae, non-sardine eggs, and southern fish larvae. Sardine eggs were the major contributors to PC3 (representing 12.1% of data variance). No significant correlations were observed between the above three components and climate indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and local seawater temperature. Significant 44- and 29-year frequencies were observed for PC3, but the physical mechanisms driving the cycles are unclear. Harmonic analysis did not reveal any significant frequencies in the physical variables or in PCs 1 and 2. To a large extent, this is due to the dominant cycles in all datasets generally being long term (>50 years or so) and not readily resolved in the examined time frame of 88 years, hence restricting the ability to draw firm conclusions on the multidecadal relationship between zooplankton community dynamics in the western English Channel and environmental indices. Thus, the zooplankton time-series often associated and represented as the Russell Cycle cannot be concluded as being truly cyclical.

Is the Russell Cycle a true cycle? Multidecadal zooplankton and climate trends in the western English Channel

The Russell Cycle is one of the classical examples of climate influence on biological oceanography, represented as shifts in the marine plankton over several decades with warm and cool conditions. While the time-series data associated with the phenomenon indicate cyclical patterns, the question remains whether or not the Russell Cycle should be considered a “true cycle”. Zooplankton time-series data from 1924 to 2011 from the western English Channel were analysed with principal component (PC), correlation and spectral analyses to determine the dominant trends, and cyclic frequencies of the Russell Cycle indicators in relation to long-term hydroclimatic indices. PC1 accounted for 37.4% of the variability in the zooplankton data with the main contributions from non-clupeid fish larvae, southwestern zooplankton, and overall zooplankton biovolume. For PC2 (14.6% of data variance), the dominant groups were northern fish larvae, non-sardine eggs, and southern fish larvae. Sardine eggs were the major contributors to PC3 (representing 12.1% of data variance). No significant correlations were observed between the above three components and climate indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and local seawater temperature. Significant 44- and 29-year frequencies were observed for PC3, but the physical mechanisms driving the cycles are unclear. Harmonic analysis did not reveal any significant frequencies in the physical variables or in PCs 1 and 2. To a large extent, this is due to the dominant cycles in all datasets generally being long term (>50 years or so) and not readily resolved in the examined time frame of 88 years, hence restricting the ability to draw firm conclusions on the multidecadal relationship between zooplankton community dynamics in the western English Channel and environmental indices. Thus, the zooplankton time-series often associated and represented as the Russell Cycle cannot be concluded as being truly cyclical.