Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland

1.Commercial fishing is an important socio-economic activity in coastal regions of the UK and Ireland. Ocean–atmospheric changes caused by greenhouse gas emissions are likely to affect future fish and shellfish production, and lead to increasing challenges in ensuring long-term sustainable fisheries management. 2.The paper reviews existing knowledge and understanding of the exposure of marine ecosystems to ocean-atmospheric changes, the consequences of these changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, and the adaptability of the UK and Irish fisheries sector. 3.Ocean warming is resulting in shifts in the distribution of exploited species and is affecting the productivity of fish stocks and underlying marine ecosystems. In addition, some studies suggest that ocean acidification may have large potential impacts on fisheries resources, in particular shell-forming invertebrates. 4.These changes may lead to loss of productivity, but also the opening of new fishing opportunities, depending on the interactions between climate impacts, fishing grounds and fleet types. They will also affect fishing regulations, the price of fish products and operating costs, which in turn will affect the economic performance of the UK and Irish fleets. 5.Key knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of the implications of climate and ocean chemistry changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, particularly on the social and economic responses of the fishing sectors to climate change. However, these gaps should not delay climate change mitigation and adaptation policy actions, particularly those measures that clearly have other ‘co-benefits’.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Marine Ecosystems: Observations, Expectations and Indicators

The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change.

A review of climate change and the implementation of marine biodiversity legislation in the United Kingdom

1. Marine legislation, the key means by which the conservation of marine biodiversity is achieved, has been developing since the 1960s. In recent decades, an increasing focus on ‘holistic’ policy development is evident, compared with earlier ‘piecemeal’ sectoral approaches. Important marine legislative tools being used in the United Kingdom, and internationally, include the designation of marine protected areas and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) with its aim of meeting ‘Good Environmental Status’ (GES) for European seas by 2020. 2. There is growing evidence of climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, which may compromise the effectiveness of any legislation intended to promote sustainable marine resource management. 3. A review of key marine biodiversity legislation relevant to the UK shows climate change was not considered in the drafting of much early legislation. Despite the huge increase in knowledge of climate change impacts in recent decades, legislation is still limited in how it takes these impacts into account. There is scope, however, to account for climate change in implementing much of the legislation through (a) existing references to environmental variability; (b) review cycles; and (c) secondary legislation and complementary policy development. 4. For legislation relating to marine protected areas (e.g. the EC Habitats and Birds Directives), climate change has generally not been considered in the site-designation process, or for ongoing management, with the exception of the Marine (Scotland) Act. Given that changing environmental conditions (e.g. rising temperatures and ocean acidification) directly affect the habitats and species that sites are designated for, how this legislation is used to protect marine biodiversity in a changing climate requires further consideration. 5. Accounting for climate change impacts on marine biodiversity in the development and implementation of legislation is vital to enable timely, adaptive management responses. Marine modelling can play an important role in informing management decisions.

Recovery of a biodiversity action plans species in northwest England: possible role of climate change, artificial habitat and water quality amelioration. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 16

The honeycomb reef worm Sabellaria alveolata is recognised as being an important component of intertidal communities. It is a priority habitat within the UK Biodiversity Action Plan and as a biogenic reef forming species is covered by Annex 1 of the EC habitats directive. S. alveolata has a lusitanean (southern) distribution, being largely restricted to the south and west coasts of England. A broad-scale survey of S. alveolata distribution along the north-west coasts was undertaken in 2003/2004. These records were then compared with previous distribution records, mainly those collected by Cunningham in 1984. More detailed mapping was carried out at Hilbre Island at the mouth of the River Dee, due to recent reports that S. alveolata had become re-established there after a long absence.

Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades, some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations such as the NAO.

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO sub(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.

Marine biodiversity and climate change: assessing and predicting the influence of climatic change using intertidal rocky shore biota. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 20

In the last 60 years climate change has altered the distribution and abundance of many seashore species. Below is a summary of the findings of this project. The MarClim project was a four year multi-partner funded project created to investigate the effects of climatic warming on marine biodiversity. In particular the project aimed to use intertidal species, whose abundances had been shown to fluctuate with changes in climatic conditions, as indicator species of likely responses of species not only on rocky shores, but also those found offshore. The project used historic time series data, from in some cases the 1950s onwards, and contemporary data collected as part of the MarClim project (2001-2005), to provide evidence of changes in the abundance, range and population structure of intertidal species and relate these changes to recent rapid climatic warming. In particular quantitative counts of barnacles, limpets and trochids were made as well as semi-quantitative surveys of up to 56 intertidal taxa.Historic and contemporary data informed experiments to understand the mechanisms behind these changes and models to predict future species ranges and abundances.

North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.

Is observed variability in the long-term results of the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey a response to climate change?

In the more than 50 years that the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has operated on a regular monthly basis in the north-east Atlantic and North Sea, large changes have been witnessed in the planktonic ecosystem. These changes have taken the form of long-term trends in abundance for certain species or stepwise changes for others, and in many cases are correlated with a mode of climatic variability in the North Atlantic, either: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basin-scale atmospheric alteration of the pressure field between the Azores high pressure cell and the Icelandic Low; or (2) the Gulf Stream Index (GSI), which measures the latitudinal position of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Recent work has shown that the changes in the GSI are coupled with the NAO and Pacific Southern Oscillation with a 2 year lag. The plankton variability is also possibly linked to changes observed in the distribution and flux of water masses in the surface, intermediate and deep waters of the North Atlantic. For example, in the last two decades, the extent and location of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, Labrador Sea Intermediate Water and Norwegian Sea intermediate and upper-layer water has altered considerably. This paper discusses the extent to which observed changes in plankton abundance and distribution may be linked to this basin-scale variability in hydrodynamics. The results are also placed within the context of global climate warming and the possible effects of the observed melting of Arctic permafrost and sea ice on the subpolar North Atlantic.

Plankton, fisheries and climate change - insights into ocean ecosystems

This paper examines long term changes in the plankton of the North Atlantic and northwest European shelf seas and discusses the forcing mechanisms behind some observed interannual, decadal and spatial patterns of variability with a focus on climate change. Evidence from the Continuous Plankton Records suggests that the plankton integrates hydrometeorological signals and may be used as a possible index of climate change. Changes evident in the plankton are likely to have important effects on the carrying capacity of fisheries and are of relvance to eutrophication issues and to the assessment of biodiversity. The scale of the changes seen over the past five decades emphasises the importance of maintaining existing, and establishing new, long term and wide scale monitoring programmes of the world's oceans in initiatives such as the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS).