Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Spawning season and temperature relationships for sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in the eastern North Atlantic

Spawning temperature preferences for sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in the eastern North Atlantic were determined from field data. These were compared with climatological temperature cycles (1986-2002) derived from satellite data by geographical region, to predict spawning seasons. Optimum spawning temperatures were determined as 14.0-15.0oC from the English Channel to Portugal and 16.0–18.0oC for all north-west African regions. Spawning seasons were closely related to the general latitudinal trend of the annual temperature cycle, with modification by upwelling in the western Iberian and north-west African regions. Some differences between temperature-based spawning season predictions and field observations were related to variations in seasonal plankton production. Correlations in the annual time-series of favourable spawning temperatures suggested relatively strong linkages between the southern areas from Portugal to Senegal. There was no consistent relationship between annual variations in duration of temperature-predicted spawning seasons and observed field abundance of eggs.

Relationships Between Seston Available Food And Feeding-Activity In The Common Mussel Mytilus-Edulis

The feeding and metabolic rates of Mytilus edulis L. of different body sizes were measured in response to changes in particle concentrations ranging from 2 to 350 mg l-1. Rates of oxygen consumption were not significantly affected by changes in seston concentration, whereas clearance rates gradually declined with increasing particle concentration. Pseudofaeces production was initiated at relatively low seston concentrations (<5 mg l-1). Marked seasonal changes were recorded in the composition of suspended particulates (seston) in an estuary in south-west England. Total seston was sampled at frequent intervals throughout an annual cycle and analysed in terms of: particle size-frequency distributions, total dry weight (mg l-1), inorganic content, chlorophyll a, carbohydrate, protein and lipid. The particulate carbohydrate, protein and lipid content provided an estimate of the food content of the seston. The results are discussed in terms of the “food available” to a nonselective suspension feeder, such as M. edulis, during a seasonal cycle. The effect of inorganic silt in suspension was mainly to limit by “dilution” the amount of food material ingested rather than to reduce the amount of material filtered by the mussel. In winter, the food content of the material ingested was 5%, and this increased to 25% during the spring and summer.