Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Modeling marine ecosystem responses to global climate change: Where are we now and where should we be going?

Modeling of global climate change is moving from global circulation model (GCM)-type projections with coupled biogeochemical models to projections of ecological responses, including food web and upper trophic levels. Marine and coastal ecosystems are highly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change and also produce significant ecosystem services. The effects of global climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems involve a much wider array of effects than the usual temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation. This paper is an overview for a collection of 12 papers that examined various aspects of global climate change on marine ecosystems and comprise this special issue. We summarized the major features of the models and analyses in the papers to determine general patterns. A wide range of ecosystems were simulated using a diverse set of modeling approaches. Models were either 3-dimensional or used a few spatial boxes, and responses to global climate change were mostly expressed as changes from a baseline condition. Three issues were identified from the across-model comparison: (a) lack of standardization of climate change scenarios, (b) the prevalence of site-specific and even unique models for upper trophic levels, and (c) emphasis on hypothesis evaluation versus forecasting. We discuss why these issues are important as global climate change assessment continues to progress up the food chain, and, when possible, offer some initial steps for going forward.

Swirl Flow Bioreactor coupled with Cu-alginate beads: A system for the eradication of Coliform and Escherichia coli from biological effluents

It is estimated that approximately 1.1 billion people globally drink unsafe water. We previously reported both a novel copper-alginate bead, which quickly reduces pathogen loading in waste streams and the incorporation of these beads into a novel swirl flow bioreactor (SFB), of low capital and running costs and of simple construction from commercially available plumbing pipes and fittings. The purpose of the present study was to trial this system for pathogen reduction in waste streams from an operating Dewats system in Hinjewadi, Pune, India and in both simulated and real waste streams in Seattle, Washington, USA. The trials in India, showed a complete inactivation of coliforms in the discharged effluent (Mean Log removal Value (MLRV) = 3.51), accompanied by a total inactivation of E. coli with a MLRV of 1.95. The secondary clarifier effluent also showed a 4.38 MLRV in viable coliforms during treatment. However, the system was slightly less effective in reducing E. coli viability, with a MLRV of 1.80. The trials in Seattle also demonstrated the efficacy of the system in the reduction of viable bacteria, with a LRV of 5.67 observed of viable Raoultella terrigena cells (100%).