Marine biodiversity and climate change: assessing and predicting the influence of climatic change using intertidal rocky shore biota. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 20

In the last 60 years climate change has altered the distribution and abundance of many seashore species. Below is a summary of the findings of this project. The MarClim project was a four year multi-partner funded project created to investigate the effects of climatic warming on marine biodiversity. In particular the project aimed to use intertidal species, whose abundances had been shown to fluctuate with changes in climatic conditions, as indicator species of likely responses of species not only on rocky shores, but also those found offshore. The project used historic time series data, from in some cases the 1950s onwards, and contemporary data collected as part of the MarClim project (2001-2005), to provide evidence of changes in the abundance, range and population structure of intertidal species and relate these changes to recent rapid climatic warming. In particular quantitative counts of barnacles, limpets and trochids were made as well as semi-quantitative surveys of up to 56 intertidal taxa.Historic and contemporary data informed experiments to understand the mechanisms behind these changes and models to predict future species ranges and abundances.

Spatial variability of marine climate change impacts in the North Atlantic

There is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems in the North Atlantic, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by the warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a varying degree by the modification of oceanic currents, precipitation regimes and wind patterns. The biological manifestations of rising SST and oceanographic changes have variously taken the form of biogeographical, phenological, physiological and community changes. For example, during the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10 degree latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This geographical movement is much more pronounced than any documented terrestrial study, presumably due to advective processes playing an important role. Other research has shown that the plankton community in the North Sea has responded to changes in SST by adjusting their seasonality (in some cases a shift in seasonal cycles of over six weeks has been detected), but more importantly the response to climate warming varied between different functional groups and trophic levels, leading to mismatch. Therefore, while it has been documented that marine ecosystems in certain regions of the Atlantic have undergone some conspicuous changes over the last few decades it is not known whether this is a pan-oceanic homogenous response. Using these two most prominent responses and/or indicative signals of pelagic ecosystems to hydro-climatic change, changes in species phenology and the biogeographical movement of populations, we attempt to identify vulnerable regional areas in terms of particularly rapid and marked change.

Temporal differences across a bio-geographical boundary reveal slow response of sub-littoral benthos to climate change

The English Channel is located at the biogeographical boundary between the northern Boreal and southern Lusitanian biozones and therefore represents an important area to study the effects of global warming on marine organisms. While the consequences of climatic change in the western English Channel have been relatively well documented for fish, plankton and inter-tidal benthic communities, data highlighting the same effects on the distribution of sub-littoral benthic organisms does, to date, not exist. The present study resurveyed a subset of sites originally surveyed from 1958 to 1959 along the UK coast of the English Channel. The main aims of this resurvey were to describe the present status of benthic communities and to investigate potential temporal changes, in particular distributional changes in western stenothermal ‘cold’ water and southern Lusitanian ‘warm’ water species. The increase in water temperature observed since the historic survey was predicted to have caused a contraction in the distribution of cold water species and an extension in the distribution of warm water species. The temporal comparison did not show any clear broad-scale distributional changes in benthic communities consistent with these predictions. Nevertheless, 2 warm water species, the sting winkle Ocenebra erinacea and the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata, did show range extensions and increased occurrence, possibly related to climatic warming. Similarly, warm water species previously not recorded by the historic survey were found. The absence of broad-scale temporal differences in sub-tidal communities in response to climatic warming has been reported for other areas and may indicate that these communities respond far more slowly to environmental changes compared to plankton, fish and inter-tidal organisms.

Temporal differences across a bio-geographical boundary reveal slow response of sub-littoral benthos to climate change

The English Channel is located at the biogeographical boundary between the northern Boreal and southern Lusitanian biozones and therefore represents an important area to study the effects of global warming on marine organisms. While the consequences of climatic change in the western English Channel have been relatively well documented for fish, plankton and inter-tidal benthic communities, data highlighting the same effects on the distribution of sub-littoral benthic organisms does, to date, not exist. The present study resurveyed a subset of sites originally surveyed from 1958 to 1959 along the UK coast of the English Channel. The main aims of this resurvey were to describe the present status of benthic communities and to investigate potential temporal changes, in particular distributional changes in western stenothermal ‘cold’ water and southern Lusitanian ‘warm’ water species. The increase in water temperature observed since the historic survey was predicted to have caused a contraction in the distribution of cold water species and an extension in the distribution of warm water species. The temporal comparison did not show any clear broad-scale distributional changes in benthic communities consistent with these predictions. Nevertheless, 2 warm water species, the sting winkle Ocenebra erinacea and the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata, did show range extensions and increased occurrence, possibly related to climatic warming. Similarly, warm water species previously not recorded by the historic survey were found. The absence of broad-scale temporal differences in sub-tidal communities in response to climatic warming has been reported for other areas and may indicate that these communities respond far more slowly to environmental changes compared to plankton, fish and inter-tidal organisms.

Macroscale factors affecting diatom abundance: a synergistic use of Continuous Plankton Recorder and satellite remote sensing data

Diatoms exist in almost every aquatic regime; they are responsible for 20% of global carbon fixation and 25% of global primary production, and are regarded as a key food for copepods, which are subsequently consumed by larger predators such as fish and marine mammals. A decreasing abundance and a vulnerability to climatic change in the North Atlantic Ocean have been reported in the literature. In the present work, a data matrix composed of concurrent satellite remote sensing and Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) in situ measurements was collated for the same spatial and temporal coverage in the Northeast Atlantic. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were applied to recognize and learn the complex non-monotonic and non-linear relationships between diatom abundance and spatiotemporal environmental factors. Because of their ability to mimic non-linear systems, ANNs proved far more effective in modelling the diatom distribution in the marine ecosystem. The results of this study reveal that diatoms have a regular seasonal cycle, with their abundance most strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) and light intensity. The models indicate that extreme positive SSTs decrease diatom abundances regardless of other climatic conditions. These results provide information on the ecology of diatoms that may advance our understanding of the potential response of diatoms to climatic change.

What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?

Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status. Marine hydrodynamic/ecosystem models provide continuous fields of a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers. Here we demonstrate a methodology that uses a combination of model outputs and in situ data to assess the risk of eutrophication in the coastal domain of the North Sea. The risk of eutrophication is computed for the past and present time as well as for different future scenarios. This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).

Indications of a climate effect on Mediterranean fisheries

Using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Mediterranean capture fisheries production dataset in conjunction with global and Mediterranean sea surface temperatures, we investigated trends in fisheries landings and landings per unit of effort of commercially important marine organisms, in relation to temperature oscillations. In addition to the overall warming trend, a temperature shift was detected in the Mediterranean Sea in the late 1990s. Fisheries landings fluctuations were examined for the most abundant commercial species (59 species) and showed significant year-to-year correlations with temperature for nearly 60 % of the cases. From these, the majority (~70 %) were negatively related and showed a reduction of 44 % on average. Increasing trends were found, mainly in the landings of species with short life spans, which seem to have benefited from the increase in water temperature. Τhe effect of oceanic warming is apparent in most species or groups of species sharing ecological (e.g. small and medium pelagic, demersal fish) or taxonomic (e.g. cephalopods, crustaceans) traits. A landings-per-unit-of-effort (LPUE) proxy, using data from the seven Mediterranean European Union member states, also showed significant correlation with temperature fluctuations for six out of the eight species examined, indicating the persistence of temperature influence on landings when the fishing effect is accounted for. The speed of response of marine landings to the warming of the Mediterranean Sea possibly shows both the sensitivity and the vulnerable state of the fish stocks and indicates that climate should be examined together with fisheries as a factor shaping stock fluctuations.