Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Plankton Of The Fladen Ground During Flex-76 .3. Vertical-Distribution Population-Dynamics And Production Of Calanus-Finmarchicus (Crustacea Copepoda)

Samples taken in the northern North Sea with the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), the Undulating Oceanographic Recorder (UOR), the Longhurst Hardy Plankton Recorder (LHPR) and by our colleagues from other participating Institutes during the Fladen Ground Experiment (FLEX 76) were used to describe the vertical distribution and population dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus (Gunnerus) and to provide estimates of the production and carbon budget of the population from 19 March to 3 June, 1976. Total production of the 19 March to 3 June, 1976. Total production of the nauplii and copepodite stages (including adults), during the exponential growth phase in May, was estimated to be in the range of 0.49 to 0.91 g C m-2 d-1 or 29.0 to 55 g dry wt m-2 (14.5 to 27.8 g C m-2) for the three successive 10 d periods in May. Two gross growth efficiencies (K 1) (20 and 34%), together with the lower value of C. finmarchicus production, were used to calculate the gross ingestion levels of algae as 2.45 and 1.44 g C m-2 d-1 (73.5 and 43.2 g C m-2 over the May period). These ingestion levels, together with the algae ingested by other zooplankton species, are greater than the estimated total phytoplankton production of 45.9 g C m-2 over the FLEX period. A number of factors are discussed which could explain the discrepancies between the production estimates. One suggestion is that the vertical distribution of the development stages of this herbivorous copepod and their diel and ontogenetic migration patterns enable it to efficiently exploit its food source. Data from the FLEX experiment indicated that the depletion of nutrients limited the size of the spring bloom, but that it was the grazing pressure exerted by C. finmarchicus which was responsible for the control and depletion of the phytoplankton in the spring of 1976 in the northern North Sea.

Plankton Of The Fladen Ground During Flex-76 .2. Population-Dynamics And Production Of Thysanoessa-Inermis (Crustacea Euphausiacea)

Samples taken in the northern North Sea with the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), the Undulating Oceanographic Recorder (UOR) and the Longhurst-Hardy Plankton Recorder (LHPR) during the Fladen Ground Experiment in 1976 (FLEX 76) are used to describe the vertical distribution and population dynamics of Thysanoessa inermis (Krøyer) and to provide estimates of the production and carbon budget of the population from 19th March to 3 June 1976. Spawning occurred in late April and early May, in near synchronisation with the start of the spring bloom of phytoplankton. Eggs, nauplii and calyptopes reached maximum abundance in succession, and furciliae were numerous when sampling ceased in early June. Adults increased in length from a mean of 12.1 mm in mid-March to 17.5 mm in early June and the estimated production was 2.40 mg m-3 over the 74 d period. Total carbon ingested by the population of T. inermis was estimated to be 10 mg C m-2 d-1 in the upper 100m which was only 1.5% of the daily primary production of 0.68 gC m-2 measured over the FLEX period 26 March to 4 June 1976. The grazing by T. inermis on the phytoplankton population was assumed to have little effect on the control and depletion of the spring phytoplankton bloom during FLEX 77.

Temporal variability in total, micro- and nano-phytoplankton primary production at a coastal site in the Western English Channel

Primary productivity and subsequent carbon cycling in the coastal zone have a significant impact on the global carbon budget. It is currently unclear how anthropogenic activity could alter these budgets but long term coastal time series of hydrological, biogeochemical and biological measurements represent a key means to better understand past drivers, and hence to predicting future seasonal and inter-annual variability in carbon fixation in coastal ecosystems. An 8-year time series of primary production from 2003 to 2010, estimated using a recently developed absorption-based algorithm, was used to determine the nature and extent of change in primary production at a coastal station (L4) in the Western English Channel (WEC). Analysis of the seasonal and inter-annual variability in production demonstrated that on average, nano- and pico-phytoplankton account for 48% of the total carbon fixation and micro-phytoplankton for 52%. A recent decline in the primary production of nano- and pico-phytoplankton from 2005 to 2010 was observed, corresponding with a decrease in winter nutrient concentrations and a decrease in the biomass of Phaeocystis sp. Micro-phytoplankton primary production (PPM) remained relatively constant over the time series and was enhanced in summer during periods of high precipitation. Increases in sea surface temperature, and decreases in wind speeds and salinity were associated with later spring maxima in PPM. Together these trends indicate that predicted increases in temperature and decrease in wind speeds in future would drive later spring production whilst predicted increases in precipitation would also continue these blooms throughout the summer at this site.

The Impact of Polystyrene Microplastics on Feeding, Function and Fecundity in the Marine CopepodCalanus helgolandicus

Microscopic plastic debris, termed “microplastics”, are of increasing environmental concern. Recent studies have demonstrated that a range of zooplankton, including copepods, can ingest microplastics. Copepods are a globally abundant class of zooplankton that form a key trophic link between primary producers and higher trophic marine organisms. Here we demonstrate that ingestion of microplastics can significantly alter the feeding capacity of the pelagic copepod Calanus helgolandicus. Exposed to 20 μm polystyrene beads (75 microplastics mL–1) and cultured algae ([250 μg C L–1) for 24 h, C. helgolandicus ingested 11% fewer algal cells (P = 0.33) and 40% less carbon biomass (P < 0.01). There was a net downward shift in the mean size of algal prey consumed (P < 0.001), with a 3.6 fold increase in ingestion rate for the smallest size class of algal prey (11.6–12.6 μm), suggestive of postcapture or postingestion rejection. Prolonged exposure to polystyrene microplastics significantly decreased reproductive output, but there were no significant differences in egg production rates, respiration or survival. We constructed a conceptual energetic (carbon) budget showing that microplastic-exposed copepods suffer energetic depletion over time. We conclude that microplastics impede feeding in copepods, which over time could lead to sustained reductions in ingested carbon biomass.