Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland

1.Commercial fishing is an important socio-economic activity in coastal regions of the UK and Ireland. Ocean–atmospheric changes caused by greenhouse gas emissions are likely to affect future fish and shellfish production, and lead to increasing challenges in ensuring long-term sustainable fisheries management. 2.The paper reviews existing knowledge and understanding of the exposure of marine ecosystems to ocean-atmospheric changes, the consequences of these changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, and the adaptability of the UK and Irish fisheries sector. 3.Ocean warming is resulting in shifts in the distribution of exploited species and is affecting the productivity of fish stocks and underlying marine ecosystems. In addition, some studies suggest that ocean acidification may have large potential impacts on fisheries resources, in particular shell-forming invertebrates. 4.These changes may lead to loss of productivity, but also the opening of new fishing opportunities, depending on the interactions between climate impacts, fishing grounds and fleet types. They will also affect fishing regulations, the price of fish products and operating costs, which in turn will affect the economic performance of the UK and Irish fleets. 5.Key knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of the implications of climate and ocean chemistry changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, particularly on the social and economic responses of the fishing sectors to climate change. However, these gaps should not delay climate change mitigation and adaptation policy actions, particularly those measures that clearly have other ‘co-benefits’.

Competition Drives Clumpy Species Coexistence in Estuarine Phytoplankton

Understanding the mechanisms that maintain biodiversity is a fundamental problem in ecology. Competition is thought to reduce diversity, but hundreds of microbial aquatic primary producers species coexist and compete for a few essential resources (e.g., nutrients and light). Here, we show that resource competition is a plausible mechanism for explaining clumpy distribution on individual species volume (a proxy for the niche) of estuarine phytoplankton communities ranging from North America to South America and Europe, supporting the Emergent Neutrality hypothesis. Furthermore, such a clumpy distribution was also observed throughout the Holocene in diatoms from a sediment core. A Lotka-Volterra competition model predicted position in the niche axis and functional affiliation of dominant species within and among clumps. Results support the coexistence of functionally equivalent species in ecosystems and indicate that resource competition may be a key process to shape the size structure of estuarine phytoplankton, which in turn drives ecosystem functioning.

Variation in ocean colour may help predict cod and haddock recruitment

Characteristics of the spring and fall phytoplankton blooms in spawning areas on the Scotian Shelf, Canada, were estimated from remote sensing data. These blooms, along with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation, were used to explain variation in the recruitment of 4 populations of cod and haddock. We tested the effects of the timing of the bloom using the chlorophyll a (chl a) signal, the maximum amount of chl a, the timing of the diatom bloom, and the maximum relative dominance of diatoms on the recruitment (to Age 1) of cod and haddock on the Scotian Shelf. Models were run separately for the effects of the spring and fall blooms. Only 3 of 10 models tested (0-lag) explained significant (80 to 92%) variation in recruitment. However, the performance of these models was not consistent across populations or species, suggesting that generalities about how spring and fall phytoplankton blooms affect recruitment cannot yet be made. The differences among models suggest that fish larvae are probably adapted locally to food production and thus indirectly to the characteristics of the phytoplankton bloom, which in turn are influenced by regional (meso-scale) oceanographic conditions.

Temporal changes in plankton of the North Sea: community shifts and environmental drivers

This paper analyses long-term and seasonal changes in the North Sea plankton community during the period 1970 to 2008. Based on Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data covering 38 yr, major changes in both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance and community structure were identified. Regime changes were detected around 1978, 1989 and 1998. The first 2 changes have been discussed in the literature and are defined as a cold episodic event (1978) and a regime shift towards a warm dynamic regime (1989). The effect of these 2 regime changes on plankton indicators was assessed and checked against previous studies. The 1998 change represents a shift in the abundance and seasonal patterns of dinoflagellates and the dominant zooplankton group, the neritic copepods. Furthermore, environmental factors such as air temperature, wind speed and the North Atlantic water inflow were identified as potential drivers of change in seasonal patterns, and the most-likely environmental causes for detected changes were assessed. We suggest that a change in the balance of dissolved nutrients driven by these environmental factors was the cause of the latest change in plankton community structure, which in turn could have affected the North Sea fish community.

The succession of minima in the abundance of species

Many of the leading ecological and evolutionary characteristics of populations are governed by their effective population size, which in turn is strongly influenced by the minimum census size. The succession of minima of increasing rank R in time is described by the expected value of the next minimum ωR and by the expected time TR elapsing before it occurs. The relationships of ωR and TR with R together determine the minimal population expected to be encountered within a given period of time. These relationships depend on the dynamic model for species abundance. The four main types of model investigated here have characteristically different successions.

Long-term changes in abundance and distribution of microzooplankton in the NE Atlantic and North Sea

Long-term changes in mesozooplankton and phytoplankton populations have been well documented in the North Atlantic region, whereas data for microzooplankton are scarce. This neglected component of the plankton is a vital link in marine food-webs, grazing on smaller flagellates and cyanobacteria and in turn providing food for the larger mesozooplankton. We use the latest tintinnid (Ciliophora, Protista) data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey in the NE Atlantic and North Sea to examine the phenology, distribution and abundance of this important group of ciliates. Presence/absence data came from 167 122 CPR samples collected between 1960 and 2009 and abundance data from 49 662 samples collected between 1996 and 2009. In the North Atlantic the genus Dictyocysta spp. dominated and Parafavella gigantea showed an increase in abundance around Iceland and Greenland. In the North Sea higher densities of Tintinnopsis spp., Favella serrata and Ptychocylis spp. were found. The presence of tintinnids in CPR samples collected in the North Atlantic has increased over the last 50 years and the seasonal window of high abundance has lengthened. Conversely in the North Sea there has been an overall reduction in abundance. We discuss possible drivers for these long-term changes and point the way forward to more holistic studies that examine how ecosystems, rather than just selected taxa, are responding to climate change.

Effects of increases in temperature and nutrients on phytoplankton community structure and photosynthesis in the Western English Channel

Anthropogenic climate change is exerting pressures on coastal ecosystems through increases in temperature, precipitation and ocean acidification. Phytoplankton community structure and photo-physiology are therefore adapting to these conditions. Changes in phytoplankton biomass and photosynthesis in relation to temperature and nutrient concentrations were assessed using a 14 year dataset from a coastal station in the Western English Channel (WEC). Dinoflagellate and coccolithophorid biomass exhibited a positive correlation with temperature, reaching the highest biomass at between 15 and 17°C. Diatoms showed a negative correlation with temperature, with highest biomass at 10°C. Chlorophyll a (chl a) normalised light-saturated photosynthetic rates (PBm) exhibited a hyperbolic response to increasing temperature, with an initial linear increase from 8 to 11°C, and reaching a plateau from 12°C. There was however no significant positive correlation between nutrients and phytoplankton biomass or PBm, which reflects the lag time between nutrient input and phytoplankton growth at this coastal site. The major phytoplankton groups that occurred at this site occupied distinct thermal niches, which in turn modified PBm. Increasing temperature, and higher water column stratification, was major factors in the initiation of dinoflagellates blooms at this site. Dinoflagellates blooms during summer also co-varied with silicate concentration, and acted as a tracer of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate from river run-off, which were subsequently reduced during these blooms. The data implies that increasing temperature and high river runoff during summer, will promote dinoflaglellates blooms in the WEC.

Ecological controls on biogeochemical fluxes in the western Antarctic Peninsula studied with an inverse foodweb model

Sea ice in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region is both highly variable and rapidly changing. In the Palmer Station region, the ice season duration has decreased by 92 d since 1978. The sea-ice changes affect ocean stratification and freshwater balance and in turn impact every component of the polar marine ecosystem. Long-term observations from the WAP nearshore and offshore regions show a pattern of chlorophyll (Chl) variability with three to five years of negative Chl anomalies interrupted by one or two years of positive anomalies (high and low Chl regimes). Both field observations and results from an inverse food-web model show that these high and low Chl regimes differed significantly from each other, with high primary productivity and net community production (NCP) and other rates associated with the high Chl years and low rates with low Chl years. Gross primary production rates (GPP) averaged 30 mmolC.m-2.d-1 in the low Chl years and 100 mmolC.m-2.d-1 in the high Chl years. Both large and small phytoplankton were more abundant and more productive in high Chl years than in low Chl years. Similarly, krill were more important as grazers in high Chl years, but did not differ from microzooplankton in high or low Chl years. Microzooplankton did not differ between high and low Chl years. Net community production differed significantly between high and low Chl years, but mobilized a similar proportion of GPP in both high and low Chl years. The composition of the NCP was uniform in high and low Chl years. These results mphasize the importance of microbial components in the WAP plankton system and suggest that food webs dominated by small phytoplankton can have pathways that funnel production into NCP, and likely, export.

Sperm motility and fertilisation success in an acidified hypoxic environment

The distribution and function of many marine species is largely determined by the effect of abiotic drivers on their reproduction and early development, including those drivers associated with elevated CO2 and global climate change. A number of studies have therefore investigated the effects of elevated pCO2 on a range of reproductive parameters, including sperm motility and fertilisation success. To date, most of these studies have not examined the possible synergistic effects of other abiotic drivers, such as the increased frequency of hypoxic events that are also associated with climate change. The present study is therefore novel in assessing the impact that an hypoxic event could have on reproduction in a future high CO2 ocean. Specifically, this study assesses sperm motility and fertilisation success in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus exposed to elevated pCO2 for 6 months. Gametes extracted from these pre-acclimated individuals were subjected to hypoxic conditions simulating an hypoxic event in a future high CO2 ocean. Sperm swimming speed increased under elevated pCO2 and decreased under hypoxic conditions resulting in the elevated pCO2 and hypoxic treatment being approximately equivalent to the control. There was also a combined negative effect of increased pCO2 and hypoxia on the percentage of motile sperm. There was a significant negative effect of elevated pCO2 on fertilisation success, and when combined with a simulated hypoxic event there was an even greater effect. This could affect cohort recruitment and in turn reduce the density of this ecologically and economically important ecosystem engineer therefore potentially effecting biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Globcurrent: Sentinel-3 synergy in action

The ESA Data User Element (DUE) funded GlobCurrent project (http://www.globcurrent.org) aims to: (i) advance the quantitative estimation of ocean surface currents from satellite sensor synergy; and (ii) demonstrate impact in user-led scientific, operational and commercial applications that, in turn, will improve and strengthen the uptake of satellite measurements. Today, a synergetic approach for quantitative analysis can build on high-resolution imaging radar and spectrometer data, infrared radiometer data and radar altimeter measurements. It will further integrate Sentinel-3 in combination with Sentinel-1 SAR data. From existing and past missions, it is often demonstrated that sharp gradients in the sea surface temperature (SST) field and the ocean surface chlorophyll-a distribution are spatially correlated with the sea surface roughness anomaly fields at small spatial scales, in the sub-mesocale (1-10 km) to the mesoscale (30-80 km). At the larger mesoscale range (>50 km), information derived from radar altimeters often depict the presence of coherent structures and eddies. The variability often appears largest in regions where the intense surface current regimes (>100 - 200 km) are found. These 2-dimensional structures manifested in the satellite observations represent evidence of the upper ocean (~100-200 m) dynamics. Whereas the quasi geostrophic assumption is valid for the upper ocean dynamics at the larger scale (>100 km), possible triggering mechanisms for the expressions at the mesoscale-to-submesoscale may include spiraling tracers of inertial motion and the interaction of the wind-driven Ekman layer with the quasi-geostrophic current field. This latter, in turn, produces bands of downwelling (convergence) and upwelling (divergence) near fronts. A regular utilization of the sensor synergy approach with the combination of Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-1 will provide a highly valuable data set for further research and development to better relate the 2-dimensional surface expressions and the upper ocean dynamics.