A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery

After 1987, Phytoplankton Colour (a visual estimate of chlorophyll) measured on samples taken by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) in the North Sea increased substantially, both in level and seasonal extent, compared to earlier years since 1946. Many species of phytoplankton and zooplankton showed marked changes in abundance at about the same time. These events coincided with a large increase in catches of the western stock of the horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus L.) in the northern North Sea reflecting a northerly expansion of the stock along the shelf edge from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea after 1987. Using a 3D hydrodynamic model, with input from measured wind parameters, monthly transport of oceanic water into the North Sea has been calculated for the period 1976–1994, integrated for a section from Orkney to Shetland to Norway. A substantial increase in oceanic inflow occurred in the winter months, December to March, from 1988. Higher sea surface temperatures were also measured after 1987 especially in spring and summer months. These biological and physical events may be a response to observed changes in pressure distribution over the North Atlantic. From 1988 onwards, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores, increased to the highest positive level observed in this century. Positive NAO anomalies are associated with stronger and more southerly tracks of the westerly winds and higher temperatures in western Europe. These changing wind distributions may have led to an increase in the northerly advection of water along the western edge of the European shelf and may have assisted the migration of the horse mackerel. This study is possibly a unique demonstration of a correlation between three different trophic levels of a marine ecosystem and hydrographic and atmospheric events at decadal and regional scales. The results emphasise the importance of maintaining into the future long term programmes such as the CPR.

The Mediterranean Sea Regime Shift at the End of the 1980s, and Intriguing Parallelisms with Other European Basins

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales

Pronounced changes in fauna, extending from the English Channel in the south to the Barents Sea in the north-east and off Greenland in the north-west, have occurred in the late 1920s, the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. We attribute these events to exchanges of subarctic and subtropical water masses in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, associated with changes in the strength and extent of the subpolar gyre. These exchanges lead to variations in the influence exerted by the subarctic or Lusitanian biomes on the intermediate faunistic zone in the north-eastern Atlantic. This strong and persistent bottom-up bio-physical link is demonstrated using a numerical ocean general circulation model and data on four trophically connected levels in the food chain – phytoplankton, zooplankton, blue whiting, and pilot whales. The plankton data give a unique basin-scale depiction of these changes, and a long pilot whale record from the Faroe Islands offers an exceptional temporal perspective over three centuries. Recent advances in simulating the dynamics of the subpolar gyre suggests a potential for predicting the distribution of the main faunistic zones in the north-eastern Atlantic a few years into the future, which might facilitate a more rational management of the commercially important fisheries in this region.

The North Atlantic subpolar gyre regulates the spawning distribution of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou)

The spawning stock of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), an economically important pelagic gadoid in the North Atlantic Ocean, increased threefold after 1995. The reproductive success of the stock is largely determined during the very early stages of life, but little is known about the spawning dynamics of this species. Here we show that the spawning distribution of blue whiting is variable, regulated by the hydrography west of the British Isles. When the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is strong and spreads its cold, fresh water masses east over Rockall Plateau, the spawning is constrained along the European continental slope and in a southerly position near Porcupine Bank. When the gyre is weak and conditions are relatively saline and warm, the spawning distribution moves northwards along the slope and especially westwards covering Rockall Plateau. The apparent link between the spawning distribution and the subpolar gyre is the first step towards understanding the reproduction variability, which currently is the main challenge for appropriate management of the blue whiting stock.