5 resultados para Bayesian Modelling, Public Health, Environmental Risk, lung cancer, asbestos, smoking

em Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA)


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At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.

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Human health and well-being are tied to the vitality of the global ocean and coastal systems on which so many live and rely. We engage with these extraordinary environments to enhance both our health and our well-being. But, we need to recognize that introducing contaminants and otherwise altering these ocean systems can harm human health and well-being in significant and substantial ways. These are complex, challenging, and critically important themes. How the human relationship to the oceans evolves in coming decades may be one of the most important connections in understanding our personal and social well-being. Yet, our understanding of this relationship is far too limited. This remarkable volume brings experts from diverse disciplines and builds a workable understanding of breadth and depth of the processes – both social and environmental – that will help us to limit future costs and enhance the benefits of sustainable marine systems. In particular, the authors have developed a shared view that the global coastal environment is under threat through intensified natural resource utilization, as well as changes to global climate and other environmental systems. All these changes contribute individually, but more importantly cumulatively, to higher risks for public health and to the global burden of disease. This pioneering book will be of value to advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students taking courses in public health, environmental, economic, and policy fields. Additionally, the treatment of these complex systems is of essential value to the policy community responsible for these questions and to the broader audience for whom these issues are more directly connected to their own health and well-being.