Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Heat Dissipation And Energetic Efficiency In Animal Anoxibiosis - Economy Contra Power

This survey on calorimetry and thermodynamics of anoxibiosis applies classical and irreversible thermodynamics to interpret experimental, direct calorimetric results in order to elucidate the sequential activation of various biochemical pathways. First, the concept of direct and indirect calorimetry is expanded to incorporate the thermochemistry of aerobic and anoxic metabolism in living cells and organisms. Calorimetric studies done under normoxia as well as under physiological and environmental anoxia are presented and assessed in terms of ATP turnover rate. Present evidence suggests that unknown sources of energy in freshwater and marine invertebrates under long-term anoxia may be important. During physiological hypoxia, thermodynamically grossly inefficient pathways sustain high metabolic rates for brief periods. On the contrary, under long-term environmental anoxia, low steady-state heat dissipation is linked to the more efficient succinate, propionate, and acetate pathways. In the second part of this paper these relationships are discussed in the context of linear, irreversible thermodynamics. The calorimetric and biochemical trends during aerobic-anoxic transitions are consistent with thermodynamic optimum functions of catabolic pathways. The theory predicts a decrease of rate with an increase of thermodynamic efficiency; therefore maximum rate and maximum efficiency are mutually exclusive. Cellular changes of pH and adenylate phosphorylation potential are recognized as regulatory mechanisms in the energetic switching to propionate production. While enzyme kinetics provides one key for understanding metabolic regulation, our insight remains incomplete without a complementary thermodynamic analysis of kinetic control in energetically coupled pathways.