Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Fine scale variability in methanol uptake and oxidation in the micro-layer and near-surface waters of the Atlantic

The aim of this research was to make the first depth profiles of the microbial assimilation of methanol carbon and its oxidation to carbon dioxide and use as an energy source from the microlayer to 1000 m. Some of the highest reported methanol oxidation rate constants of 0.5–0.6 d−1 were occasionally found in the microlayer and immediately underlying waters (10 cm depth), albeit these samples also showed the greatest heterogeneity compared to other depths down to 1000 m. Methanol uptake into the particulate phase was exceptionally low in microlayer samples, suggesting that any methanol utilised by microbes in this environment is for energy generation. The sea surface microlayer and 10 cm depth also showed a higher proportion of bacteria with a low DNA content, and bacterial leucine uptake rates in surface microlayer samples were either less than or the same as those in the underlying 10 cm layer. The average methanol oxidation and particulate rates were however statistically the same throughout the depths sampled, although the latter were highly variable in the near-surface 0.25–2 m compared to deeper depths. The statistically significant relationship demonstrated between uptake of methanol into particles and bacterial leucine incorporation suggests that many heterotrophic bacteria could be using methanol carbon for cellular growth. On average, methanol bacterial growth efficiency (BGEm) in the top 25 m of the water column is 6% and decreases with depth. Although, for microlayer and 10 cm-depth samples, BGEm is less than the near-surface 25–217 cm, possibly reflecting increased environmental UV stress resulting in increased maintenance costs, i.e. energy required for survival. We conclude that microbial methanol uptake rates, i.e. loss from seawater, are highly variable, particularly close to the seawater surface, which could significantly impact upon seawater concentrations and hence the air–sea flux.