Simulation of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment with an individual-based model and comparison with field data

An individual-based model (IBM) for the simulation of year-to-year survival during the early life-history stages of the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) was developed within the EU funded Shelf-Edge Advection, Mortality and Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. The IBM included transport, growth and survival and was used to track the passive movement of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae and determine their distribution and abundance after approximately 2 months of drift. One of the main outputs from the IBM, namely distributions and numbers of surviving post-larvae, are compared with field data as recruit (age-0/age-1 juveniles) distribution and abundance for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000. The juvenile distributions show more inter-annual and spatial variability than the modelled distributions of survivors; this may be due to the restriction of using the same initial egg distribution for all 3 yr of simulation. The IBM simulations indicate two main recruitment areas for the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel, these being Porcupine Bank and the south-eastern Bay of Biscay. These areas correspond to areas of high juvenile catches, although the juveniles generally have a more widespread distribution than the model simulations. The best agreement between modelled data and field data for distribution (juveniles and model survivors) is for the year 1998. The juvenile catches in different representative nursery areas are totalled to give a field abundance index (FAI). This index is compared with a model survivor index (MSI) which is calculated from the total of survivors for the whole spawning season. The MSI compares favourably with the FAI for 1998 and 1999 but not for 2000; in this year, juvenile catches dropped sharply compared with the previous years but there was no equivalent drop in modelled survivors.

Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

The effect of pressure on leucine and thymidine incorporation by free-living bacteria and by bacteria attached to sinking oceanic particles

The effect of pressure on upper ocean free-living bacteria and bacteria attached to rapidly sinking particles was investigated through studying their ability to synthesize DNA and protein by measuring their rate of 3H-thymidine and 3H-leucine incorporation. Studies were carried out on samples from the NE Atlantic under the range of pressures (1–430 atm) encountered by sinking aggregates during their journey to the deep-sea bed. Thymidine and leucine incorporation rates per bacterium attached to sinking particles from 200 m were about six and ten times higher, respectively, than the free-living bacterial assemblage. The ratio of leucine incorporation rate per cell to thymidine incorporation rate per cell was significantly different between the larger attached (18.9:1) and smaller free-living (10.4:1) assemblages. The rates of leucine and thymidine incorporation decreased exponentially with increasing pressure for the free-living and linearly for attached bacteria, while there was no significant influence of pressure on cell numbers. At 100 atm leucine and thymidine incorporation rate per free-living bacterium was reduced to 73 and 20%, respectively, relative to that measured at 1 atm. Pressure of 100 atm reduced leucine and thymidine incorporation per attached bacterium to 94 and 70%, and at 200 atm these rates were reduced to 34 and 51%, respectively, relative to those measured at 1 atm. There was no significant uncoupling of thymidine and leucine incorporation for either the free-living or attached bacterial assemblages with increasing pressure, indicating that the processess of DNA and protein synthesis may be equally affected by increasing pressure. It is therefore unlikely that bacteria, originating from surface waters, attached to rapidly sinking particles play a role in particle remineralization below approximately 1000–2000 m. These results may help to explain the occurrence of relatively fresh aggregates on the deep-sea bed that still contain sufficient organic carbon to fuel the rapid growth of benthic micro-organisms; they also indicate that the effect of pressure on microbial processes may be important in oceanic biogeochemical cycles.