Climate-induced changes in the North Sea Decapoda over the last 60 years

In the mid-1980s the North Sea ecosystem experienced a climate-induced regime shift that has favoured decapods and detritivores in the benthos and jellyfish in the plankton over commercial fisheries. Here, we investigate changes among the Decapoda in the North Sea plankton over the last 60 yr. Decapods are important predators in the plankton and the benthos where they can influence productivity and structure communities. In the North Sea it has been suggested that a climate-driven increase in decapod abundance has been important in propagating the climate signal through the North Sea food web. We show that climate-induced changes in the Decapoda in the central and southern North Sea include the presence of new warm-water taxa, changes in the abundance and proportions of commercial species of shrimp, and an earlier occurrence of decapod larvae in the plankton compared with the period 1981–1983. Notable amongst the warm-water taxa appearing in the North Sea is the predatory swimming crab Polybius henslowii that can swarm in large numbers when conditions are favourable and that is known to exhibit range shifts in response to fluctuations in hydroclimatic forcing. We suggest that climate-induced changes among North Sea decapods have played an important role in the trophic amplification of a climate signal and the development of the new North Sea dynamic regime. Understanding these changes is likely to be imperative for a successful ecosystem-based approach to the future management of North Sea fisheries at a time of climate change.

A 60-year ocean colour data set from the continuous plankton recorder

The phytoplankton colour index (PCI) of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey is an in situ measure of ocean colour, which is considered a proxy of the phytoplankton biomass. PCI has been extensively used to describe the major spatiotemporal patterns of phytoplankton in the North Atlantic Ocean and North Sea since 1931. Regardless of its wide application, the lack of an adequate evaluation to test the PCI's quantitative nature is an important limitation. To address this concern, a field trial over the main production season has been undertaken to assess the numerical values assigned by previous investigations for each category of the greenness of the PCI. CPRs were towed across the English Channel from Roscoff to Plymouth consecutively for each of 8 months producing 76 standard CPR samples, each representing 10 nautical miles of tow. The results of this experiment test and update the PCI methodology, and confirm the validity of this long-term in situ ocean colour data set. In addition, using a 60-year time series of the PCI of the western English Channel, a comparison is made between the previous and the current revised experimental calculations of PCI.

Satellite estimates of net community production indicate predominance of net autotrophy in the Atlantic Ocean

There is ongoing debate as to whether the oligotrophic ocean is predominantly net autotrophic and acts as a CO2 sink, or net heterotrophic and therefore acts as a CO2 source to the atmosphere. This quantification is challenging, both spatially and temporally, due to the sparseness of measurements. There has been a concerted effort to derive accurate estimates of phytoplankton photosynthesis and primary production from satellite data to fill these gaps; however there have been few satellite estimates of net community production (NCP). In this paper, we compare a number of empirical approaches to estimate NCP from satellite data with in vitro measurements of changes in dissolved O2 concentration at 295 stations in the N and S Atlantic Ocean (including the Antarctic), Greenland and Mediterranean Seas. Algorithms based on power laws between NCP and particulate organic carbon production (POC) derived from 14C uptake tend to overestimate NCP at negative values and underestimate at positive values. An algorithm that includes sea surface temperature (SST) in the power function of NCP and 14C POC has the lowest bias and root-mean square error compared with in vitro measured NCP and is the most accurate algorithm for the Atlantic Ocean. Nearly a 13 year time series of NCP was generated using this algorithm with SeaWiFS data to assess changes over time in different regions and in relation to climate variability. The North Atlantic subtropical and tropical Gyres (NATL) were predominantly net autotrophic from 1998 to 2010 except for boreal autumn/winter, suggesting that the northern hemisphere has remained a net sink for CO2 during this period. The South Atlantic subtropical Gyre (SATL) fluctuated from being net autotrophic in austral spring-summer, to net heterotrophic in austral autumn–winter. Recent decadal trends suggest that the SATL is becoming more of a CO2 source. Over the Atlantic basin, the percentage of satellite pixels with negative NCP was 27%, with the largest contributions from the NATL and SATL during boreal and austral autumn–winter, respectively. Variations in NCP in the northern and southern hemispheres were correlated with climate indices. Negative correlations between NCP and the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) occurred in the SATL, which explained up to 60% of the variability in NCP. Similarly there was a negative correlation between NCP and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Southern Sub-Tropical Convergence Zone (SSTC),which explained 90% of the variability. There were also positive correlations with NAO in the Canary Current Coastal Upwelling (CNRY) and Western Tropical Atlantic (WTRA)which explained 80% and 60% of the variability in each province, respectively. MEI and NAO seem to play a role in modifying phases of net autotrophy and heterotrophy in the Atlantic Ocean.

Decadal reanalysis of biogeochemical indicators and fluxes in the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem

In this paper we present the first decadal reanalysis simulation of the biogeochemistry of the North West European shelf, along with a full evaluation of its skill and value. An error-characterized satellite product for chlorophyll was assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble Kalman filter. The results showed that the reanalysis improved the model predictions of assimilated chlorophyll in 60% of the study region. Model validation metrics showed that the reanalysis had skill in matching a large dataset of in situ observations for ten ecosystem variables. Spearman rank correlations were significant and higher than 0.7 for physical-chemical variables (temperature, salinity, oxygen), ∼0.6 for chlorophyll and nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate), and significant, though lower in value, for partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (∼0.4). The reanalysis captured the magnitude of pH and ammonia observations, but not their variability. The value of the reanalysis for assessing environmental status and variability has been exemplified in two case studies. The first shows that between 340,000-380,000 km2 of shelf bottom waters were oxygen deficient potentially threatening bottom fishes and benthos. The second application confirmed that the shelf is a net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the total amount of uptake varies between 36-46 Tg C yr−1 at a 90% confidence level. These results indicate that the reanalysis output dataset can inform the management of the North West European shelf ecosystem, in relation to eutrophication, fishery, and variability of the carbon cycle.