Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Shore height and differentials between macrobenthic assemblages in vegetated and unvegetated areas of an intertidal sandflat

Intertidal macrobenthic faunal assemblages of a dual seagrass/callianassid-structured sandflat system were investigated in subtropical Moreton Bay, Queensland. Consistently across all 20 stations, the gastropod-dominated seagrass supported greater abundance (2.5×) and species richness (2×) than the amphipod-dominated sandflat. There was no evidence of along-shore or up-shore variation in the overall assemblage properties such as total abundance, species richness or diversity within either habitat type, except for variation in sandflat abundance between sites. But seagrass and sandflat assemblages both varied significantly in composition from site to site, and seagrass assemblage composition also varied with shore height. Shore height and site, however, only accounted for ≤41% of total variation. The two faunal assemblages showed a Bray–Curtis dissimilarity of 97.7% and within-habitat similarities of <20%. There was no consistency in distribution of greater diversity, dominance or evenness. No differential between any assemblage features in adjacent sandflat and seagrass samples changed with shore height, supporting hypotheses that such differentials are not maintained by predation. Macrofaunal species richness and diversity were closely coupled within sandflat stations but were uncoupled within seagrass ones, questioning the value of diversity as a comparative measure.

Optimization of a total acid hydrolysis based protocol for the quantification of carbohydrate in macroalgae

Accurate quantification of carbohydrate content of biomass is crucial for many bio-refining applications. The standardised NREL two stage complete acid hydrolysis protocol was evaluated for its suitability towards seaweeds, as the protocol was originally developed for lignocellulosic feedstocks. The compositional differences between the major polysaccharides in seaweeds and terrestrial plants, and seaweed’s less recalcitrant nature, could suggest the NREL based protocol may be too extreme. Underestimations of carbohydrate content through the degradation of liberated sugars into furan compounds may yield erroneous data. An optimised analysis method for carbohydrate quantification in the brown seaweed L. digitata was thus developed and evaluated. Results from this study revealed stage 1 of the assay was crucial for optimisation however stage 2 proved to be less crucial. The newly optimised protocol for L. digitata yielded 210 mg of carbohydrate per g of biomass compared to a yield of only 166 mg/g from the original NREL protocol. Use of the new protocol on two other species of seaweed also gave consistent results; higher carbohydrate and significantly lower sugar degradation products generation than the original protocol. This study demonstrated the importance of specific individual optimisations of the protocol for accurate sugar quantification, particularly for different species of seaweed