Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Linking environmental variables with regional- scale variability in ecological structure and standing stock of carbon within UK kelp forests

Kelp forests represent some of the most productive and diverse habitats on Earth. Understanding drivers of ecological patterns at large spatial scales is critical for effective management and conservation of marine habitats. We surveyed kelp forests dominated by Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie 1884 across 9° latitude and >1000 km of coastline and measured a number of physical parameters at multiple scales to link ecological structure and standing stock of carbon with environmental variables. Kelp density, biomass, morphology and age were generally greater in exposed sites within regions, highlighting the importance of wave exposure in structuring L. hyperborea populations. At the regional scale, wave-exposed kelp canopies in the cooler regions (the north and west of Scotland) were greater in biomass, height and age than in warmer regions (southwest Wales and England). The range and maximal values of estimated standing stock of carbon contained within kelp forests was greater than in historical studies, suggesting that this ecosystem property may have been previously undervalued. Kelp canopy density was positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and fine-scale water motion, whereas kelp canopy biomass and the standing stock of carbon were positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and light levels and negatively correlated with temperature. As light availability and summer temperature were important drivers of kelp forest biomass, effective management of human activities that may affect coastal water quality is necessary to maintain ecosystem functioning, while increased temperatures related to anthropogenic climate change may impact the structure of kelp forests and the ecosystem services they provide.

Linking environmental variables with regional- scale variability in ecological structure and standing stock of carbon within UK kelp forests

Kelp forests represent some of the most productive and diverse habitats on Earth. Understanding drivers of ecological patterns at large spatial scales is critical for effective management and conservation of marine habitats. We surveyed kelp forests dominated by Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie 1884 across 9° latitude and >1000 km of coastline and measured a number of physical parameters at multiple scales to link ecological structure and standing stock of carbon with environmental variables. Kelp density, biomass, morphology and age were generally greater in exposed sites within regions, highlighting the importance of wave exposure in structuring L. hyperborea populations. At the regional scale, wave-exposed kelp canopies in the cooler regions (the north and west of Scotland) were greater in biomass, height and age than in warmer regions (southwest Wales and England). The range and maximal values of estimated standing stock of carbon contained within kelp forests was greater than in historical studies, suggesting that this ecosystem property may have been previously undervalued. Kelp canopy density was positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and fine-scale water motion, whereas kelp canopy biomass and the standing stock of carbon were positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and light levels and negatively correlated with temperature. As light availability and summer temperature were important drivers of kelp forest biomass, effective management of human activities that may affect coastal water quality is necessary to maintain ecosystem functioning, while increased temperatures related to anthropogenic climate change may impact the structure of kelp forests and the ecosystem services they provide.

Underway spectrophotometry along the Atlantic Meridional Transect reveals high performance in satellite chlorophyll retrievals

To evaluate the performance of ocean-colour retrievals of total chlorophyll-a concentration requires direct comparison with concomitant and co-located in situ data. For global comparisons, these in situ match-ups should be ideally representative of the distribution of total chlorophyll-a concentration in the global ocean. The oligotrophic gyres constitute the majority of oceanic water, yet are under-sampled due to their inaccessibility and under-represented in global in situ databases. The Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) is one of only a few programmes that consistently sample oligotrophic waters. In this paper, we used a spectrophotometer on two AMT cruises (AMT19 and AMT22) to continuously measure absorption by particles in the water of the ship's flow-through system. From these optical data continuous total chlorophyll-a concentrations were estimated with high precision and accuracy along each cruise and used to evaluate the performance of ocean-colour algorithms. We conducted the evaluation using level 3 binned ocean-colour products, and used the high spatial and temporal resolution of the underway system to maximise the number of match-ups on each cruise. Statistical comparisons show a significant improvement in the performance of satellite chlorophyll algorithms over previous studies, with root mean square errors on average less than half (~ 0.16 in log10 space) that reported previously using global datasets (~ 0.34 in log10 space). This improved performance is likely due to the use of continuous absorption-based chlorophyll estimates, that are highly accurate, sample spatial scales more comparable with satellite pixels, and minimise human errors. Previous comparisons might have reported higher errors due to regional biases in datasets and methodological inconsistencies between investigators. Furthermore, our comparison showed an underestimate in satellite chlorophyll at low concentrations in 2012 (AMT22), likely due to a small bias in satellite remote-sensing reflectance data. Our results highlight the benefits of using underway spectrophotometric systems for evaluating satellite ocean-colour data and underline the importance of maintaining in situ observatories that sample the oligotrophic gyres.

Underway spectrophotometry along the Atlantic Meridional Transect reveals high performance in satellite chlorophyll retrievals

To evaluate the performance of ocean-colour retrievals of total chlorophyll-a concentration requires direct comparison with concomitant and co-located in situ data. For global comparisons, these in situ match-ups should be ideally representative of the distribution of total chlorophyll-a concentration in the global ocean. The oligotrophic gyres constitute the majority of oceanic water, yet are under-sampled due to their inaccessibility and under-represented in global in situ databases. The Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) is one of only a few programmes that consistently sample oligotrophic waters. In this paper, we used a spectrophotometer on two AMT cruises (AMT19 and AMT22) to continuously measure absorption by particles in the water of the ship's flow-through system. From these optical data continuous total chlorophyll-a concentrations were estimated with high precision and accuracy along each cruise and used to evaluate the performance of ocean-colour algorithms. We conducted the evaluation using level 3 binned ocean-colour products, and used the high spatial and temporal resolution of the underway system to maximise the number of match-ups on each cruise. Statistical comparisons show a significant improvement in the performance of satellite chlorophyll algorithms over previous studies, with root mean square errors on average less than half (~ 0.16 in log10 space) that reported previously using global datasets (~ 0.34 in log10 space). This improved performance is likely due to the use of continuous absorption-based chlorophyll estimates, that are highly accurate, sample spatial scales more comparable with satellite pixels, and minimise human errors. Previous comparisons might have reported higher errors due to regional biases in datasets and methodological inconsistencies between investigators. Furthermore, our comparison showed an underestimate in satellite chlorophyll at low concentrations in 2012 (AMT22), likely due to a small bias in satellite remote-sensing reflectance data. Our results highlight the benefits of using underway spectrophotometric systems for evaluating satellite ocean-colour data and underline the importance of maintaining in situ observatories that sample the oligotrophic gyres.