Relating sardine recruitment in the Northern Benguela to satellite-derived sea surface height using a neural network pattern recognition approach

Processes of enrichment, concentration and retention are thought to be important for the successful recruitment of small pelagic fish in upwelling areas, but are difficult to measure. In this study, a novel approach is used to examine the role of spatio-temporal oceanographic variability on recruitment success of the Northern Benguela sardine Sardinops sagax. This approach applies a neural network pattern recognition technique, called a self-organising map (SOM), to a seven-year time series of satellite-derived sea level data. The Northern Benguela is characterised by quasi-perennial upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water and is influenced by intrusions of warm, nutrient-poor Angola Current water from the north. In this paper, these processes are categorised in terms of their influence on recruitment success through the key ocean triad mechanisms of enrichment, concentration and retention. Moderate upwelling is seen as favourable for recruitment, whereas strong upwelling, weak upwelling and Angola Current intrusion appear detrimental to recruitment success. The SOM was used to identify characteristic patterns from sea level difference data and these were interpreted with the aid of sea surface temperature data. We found that the major oceanographic processes of upwelling and Angola Current intrusion dominated these patterns, allowing them to be partitioned into those representing recruitment favourable conditions and those representing adverse conditions for recruitment. A marginally significant relationship was found between the index of sardine recruitment and the frequency of recruitment favourable conditions (r super(2) = 0.61, p = 0.068, n = 6). Because larvae are vulnerable to environmental influences for a period of at least 50 days after spawning, the SOM was then used to identify windows of persistent favourable conditions lasting longer than 50 days, termed recruitment favourable periods (RFPs). The occurrence of RFPs was compared with back-calculated spawning dates for each cohort. Finally, a comparison of RFPs with the time of spawning and the index of recruitment showed that in years where there were 50 or more days of favourable conditions following spawning, good recruitment followed (Mann-Whitney U-test: p = 0.064, n = 6). These results show the value of the SOM technique for describing spatio-temporal variability in oceanographic processes. Variability in these processes appears to be an important factor influencing recruitment in the Northern Benguela sardine, although the available data time series is currently too short to be conclusive. Nonetheless, the analysis of satellite data, using a neural network pattern-recognition approach, provides a useful framework for investigating fisheries recruitment problems.

Summarising spatial and temporal information in CPR data

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey provides pan-oceanic data on geographic distribution, species composition, seasonal cycles of abundance, and long-term change during the last 70 years. In this paper we compare and contrast some of the historic data-analytic protocols of the survey, focusing primarily on the various means by which spatio-temporal information in CPR data has been exposed. Relative strengths and limitations are assessed, followed by suggestions for future approaches to the visualisation and summarising of CPR data.

Increasing prevalence of the marine cladoceran Penilia avirostris (Dana, 1852) in the North Sea

Rising sea surface temperatures in the North Sea have had consequential effects on not only indigenous plankton species, but also on the possibility of successful colonisation of the area by invasive plankton species. Previous studies have noted the introduction and integration into the plankton community of various phytoplankton species, but establishment of zooplankton organisms in the North Sea is less well-documented. Examining continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data and zooplankton results from the Helgoland Roads study, the autumn of 1999 witnessed the occurrence of the marine cladoceran Penilia avirostris in large numbers in the North Sea. The rapid appearance of the species corresponded with exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Since 1999, the species has become a regular feature of the autumnal zooplankton community of the North Sea. In 2002 and 2003, the species occurred in greater abundance than recorded before. It is suggested that increased autumn SSTs have proved favourable to P. avirostris, with warmer conditions contributing to the success of the species’ resting eggs and aiding colonisation.