Estimating the economic loss of recent North Atlantic fisheries management

It is accepted that world’s fisheries are not generally exploited at their biological or their economic optimum. Most fisheries assessments focus on the biological capacity of fish stocks to respond to harvesting and few have attempted to estimate the economic efficiency at which ecosystems are exploited. The latter is important as fisheries contribute considerably to the economic development of many coastal communities. Here we estimate the overall potential economic rent for the fishing industry in the North Atlantic to be B€ 12.85, compared to current estimated profits of B€ 0.63. The difference between the potential and the net profits obtained from North Atlantic fisheries is therefore B€ 12.22. In order to increase the profits of North Atlantic fisheries to a maximum, total fish biomass would have to be rebuilt to 108 Mt (2.4 times more than present) by reducing current total fishing effort by 53%. Stochastic simulations were undertaken to estimate the uncertainty associated with the aggregate bioeconomic model that we use and we estimate the economic loss NA fisheries in a range of 2.5 and 32 billion of euro. We provide economic justification for maintaining or restoring fish stocks to above their MSY biomass levels. Our conclusions are consistent with similar global scale studies.

Thermal front variability along the North Atlantic Current observed using satellite microwave and infrared data

Thermal fronts detected using multiple satellite sensors have been integrated to provide new information on the spatial and seasonal distribution of oceanic fronts in the North Atlantic. The branching of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) as it encounters the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) is reflected in surface thermal fronts, which preferentially occur at the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ) and several smaller fracture zones. North of the CGFZ there are few thermal fronts, contrasting with the region to the south, where there are frequent surface thermal fronts that are persistent seasonally and interannually. The alignment of the fronts confirms that the shallower Reykjanes Ridge north of the CGFZ is more of a barrier to water movements than the ridge to the south. Comparison of front distributions with satellite altimetry data indicates that the MAR influence on deep ocean currents is also frequently exhibited in surface temperature. The improved spatial and temporal resolution of the front analysis has revealed consistent seasonality in the branching patterns. These results contribute to our understanding of the variability of the NAC, and the techniques for visualising oceanic fronts can be applied in other regions to reveal details of surface currents that cannot be resolved using satellite altimetry or in situ measurements.

Comparison of new and primary production models using SeaWiFS data in contrasting hydrographic zones of the northern North Atlantic.

The accuracy of two satellite models of marine primary (PP) and new production (NP) were assessed against 14C and 15N uptake measurements taken during six research cruises in the northern North Atlantic. The wavelength resolving model (WRM) was more accurate than the Vertical General Production Model (VGPM) for computation of both PP and NP. Mean monthly satellite maps of PP and NP for both models were generated from 1997 to 2010 using SeaWiFS data for the Irminger basin and North Atlantic. Intra- and inter-annual variability of the two models was compared in six hydrographic zones. Both models exhibited similar spatio-temporal patterns: PP and NP increased from April to June and decreased by August. Higher values were associated with the East Greenland Current (EGC), Iceland Basin (ICB) and the Reykjanes Ridge (RKR) and lower values occurred in the Central Irminger Current (CIC), North Irminger Current (NIC) and Southern Irminger Current (SIC). The annual PP and NP over the SeaWiFS record was 258 and 82 gC m-2 yr-1 respectively for the VGPM and 190 and 41 gC m-2 yr-1 for the WRM. Average annual cumulative sum in the anomalies of NP for the VGPM were positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the EGC, CIC and SIC and negatively correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) in the ICB. By contrast, cumulative sum of the anomalies of NP for the WRM were significantly correlated with NAO only in the EGC and CIC. NP from both VGPM and WRM exhibited significant negative correlations with Arctic Oscillation (AO) in all hydrographic zones. The differences in estimates of PP and NP in these hydrographic zones arise principally from the parameterisation of the euphotic depth and the SST dependence of photo-physiological term in the VGPM, which has a greater sensitivity to variations in temperature than the WRM. In waters of 0 to 5C PP using the VGPM was 43% higher than WRM, from 5 to 10C the VGPM was 29% higher and from 10 to 15C the VGPM was 27% higher.

Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

The effect of the North Atlantic Subpolar Front as a boundary in pelagic biogeography decreases with increasing depth and organism size

Broad-scale patterns in the distribution of deep-sea pelagic species and communities are poorly known. An important question is whether biogeographic boundaries identified from surface features are important in the deep mesopelagic and bathypelagic. We present community analyses of discrete-depth samples of mesozooplankton and micronekton to full-ocean depth collected in the area where the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is crossed by the Subpolar Front. The results show that the distributional discontinuity associated with the front, which is strong near the surface, decreases with increasing depth. Both the frontal separation near the surface and the community convergence at increasing depths were clearer for mesozooplankton than for micronekton.

Climate change and marine benthos: a review of existing research and future directions in the North Atlantic

There is growing evidence that climate change could affect marine benthic systems. This review provides information of climate change‐related impacts on the marine benthos in the North Atlantic. We cover a number of related research aspects, mainly in connection to two key issues. First, is the relationship between different physical aspects of climate change and the marine benthos. This section covers: (a) the responses to changes in seawater temperature (biogeographic shifts and phenology); (b) altered Hydrodynamics; (c) ocean acidification (OA); and (d) sea‐level rise‐coastal squeeze. The second major issue addressed is the possible integrated impact of climate change on the benthos. This work is based on relationships between proxies for climate variability, notably the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and the long‐term marine benthos. The final section of our review provides a series of conclusions and future directions to support climate change research on marine benthic systems. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:203–223. doi: 10.1002/wcc.330

Surface Salinity in the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre During the STRASSE/SPURS Summer 2012 Cruise

We investigated a 100 × 100 km high-salinity region of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre during the Sub-Tropical Atlantic Surface Salinity Experiment/Salinity Processes in the Upper-ocean Regional Study (STRASSE/SPURS) cruise from August 21, 2012, to September 9, 2012. Results showed great variability in sea surface salinity (SSS; over 0.3 psu) in the mesoscale, over 7 cm of total evaporation, and little diapycnal mixing below 36 m depth, the deepest mixed layers encountered. Strong currents in the southwestern part of the domain, and the penetration of freshwater, suggest that advection contributed greatly to salinity evolution. However, it was further observed that a smaller cyclonic structure tucked between the high SSS band and the strongest currents contributed to the transport of high SSS water along a narrow front. Cross-frontal transport by mixing is also a possible cause of summertime reduction of SSS. The observed structure was also responsible for significant southward salt transport over more than 200 km.

The effect of the North Atlantic Subpolar Front as a boundary in pelagic biogeography decreases with increasing depth and organism size

Broad-scale patterns in the distribution of deep-sea pelagic species and communities are poorly known. An important question is whether biogeographic boundaries identified from surface features are important in the deep mesopelagic and bathypelagic. We present community analyses of discrete-depth samples of mesozooplankton and micronekton to full-ocean depth collected in the area where the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is crossed by the Subpolar Front. The results show that the distributional discontinuity associated with the front, which is strong near the surface, decreases with increasing depth. Both the frontal separation near the surface and the community convergence at increasing depths were clearer for mesozooplankton than for micronekton.

Estimating Oceanic Primary Production Using Vertical Irradiance and Chlorophyll Profiles from Ocean Gliders in the North Atlantic

An autonomous underwater vehicle (Seaglider) has been used to estimate marine primary production (PP) using a combination of irradiance and fluorescence vertical profiles. This method provides estimates for depth-resolved and temporally evolving PP on fine spatial scales in the absence of ship-based calibrations. We describe techniques to correct for known issues associated with long autonomous deployments such as sensor calibration drift and fluorescence quenching. Comparisons were made between the Seaglider, stable isotope (13C), and satellite estimates of PP. The Seaglider-based PP estimates were comparable to both satellite estimates and stable isotope measurements.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).