ICES status report on climate change in the North Atlantic

Although the physical and chemical principles that explain the warming of the Earth’s system resulting from emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases were understood at the end of the 19th century (Tyndall, 1861; Arrhenius, 1896) and at the beginning of the 20th century (Callendar, 1938), it was almost 100 years later, in the mid‐1980s, before it was realized that these processes were contributing to a rapid change in climate. The potential consequences of this global warming have still to be revealed and are difficult to anticipate.

The Mechanics of QSR 2000

Assessment of the quality of the marine environment forms an important part of the new 1992 OSPAR Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic that was ratified and entered into force on 25 March 1998. In the ministerial statement at the signing of the Convention it was agreed that the first assessment (Quality Status Report, QSR) for all Convention waters should be produced for the year 2000. To oversee this charge a new Environmental Assessment and Monitoring Committee (ASMO) was established and a junior group under this committee, to implement necessary actions, the Assessment Co-ordination Group (ACG). Because of the wide geographical diversity and varying levels of information available in different parts of the Convention area it was decided to produce five regional reports for: I The Arctic; II The North Sea; III The Celtic seas; IV The Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast; V The Wider Atlantic, which will be synthesised in a holistic QSR for the year 2000. The report for the North Sea will largely be an update of QSR 1993 and forms the third cycle of a developing management system for the North Sea. This paper will present the procedures that have been adopted to implement the QSRs, and outlines the guidelines that have been developed for their structure, format, design and publication.

Historical data reveal power-law dispersal patterns of invasive aquatic species.

Understanding how invasive species spread is of particular concern in the current era of globalisation and rapid environmental change. The occurrence of super-diffusive movements within the context of Lévy flights has been discussed with respect to particle physics, human movements, microzooplankton, disease spread in global epidemiology and animal foraging behaviour. Super-diffusive movements provide a theoretical explanation for the rapid spread of organisms and disease, but their applicability to empirical data on the historic spread of organisms has rarely been tested. This study focuses on the role of long-distance dispersal in the invasion dynamics of aquatic invasive species across three contrasting areas and spatial scales: open ocean (north-east Atlantic), enclosed sea (Mediterranean) and an island environment (Ireland). Study species included five freshwater plant species, Azolla filiculoides, Elodea canadensis, Lagarosiphon major, Elodea nuttallii and Lemna minuta; and ten species of marine algae, Asparagopsis armata, Antithamnionella elegans, Antithamnionella ternifolia, Codium fragile, Colpomenia peregrina, Caulerpa taxifolia, Dasysiphonia sp., Sargassum muticum, Undaria pinnatifida and Womersleyella setacea. A simulation model is constructed to show the validity of using historical data to reconstruct dispersal kernels. Lévy movement patterns similar to those previously observed in humans and wild animals are evident in the re-constructed dispersal pattern of invasive aquatic species. Such patterns may be widespread among invasive species and could be exacerbated by further development of trade networks, human travel and environmental change. These findings have implications for our ability to predict and manage future invasions, and improve our understanding of the potential for spread of organisms including infectious diseases, plant pests and genetically modified organisms.