The response of phytoplankton to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Inter-annual variability in the timing of phytoplankton spring bloom and phytoplankton community structure in the central North Atlantic Ocean was quantified using ocean color data and continuous plankton recorder (CPR) data. This variability was related to the North Atlantic Oscillation using correlation analysis and multivariate auto-regression models. The initiation of the spring bloom derived from CPR phytoplankton color index data is similar to that derived from satellite chlorophyll, and exhibits a nominal correlation with the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The extrapolated spring bloom timing suggested later initiation of blooms in the mid-1980s and earlier initiation of blooms in the 1990s. The climatological phytoplankton community structure in the central North Atlantic is dominated by diatoms, except for a shift in community composition favoring dinoflagellates in August. The ratio of diatoms to total phytoplankton abundance and the ratio of dinoflagellates to total phytoplankton abundance are both closely correlated with the NAO and SST. The extended time series of phytoplankton community structure between 1985 and 2009, deduced from the time series of SST and NAO over the same interval, showed a decadal shift away from diatoms towards dinoflagellates. The linkages between the NAO, and changes in stratification and phytoplankton processes occur over a larger scale than previously observed.

Variability in northwards extension of warm water copepods in the NE Pacific

The Continuous Plankton Recorder has been deployed in the NE Pacific on two intersecting transects since 2000. Many deployments included a temperature sensor providing in situ temperature data to supplement the species abundance data for 1300 samples. Twenty-nine copepod taxa were sufficiently abundant to examine their temperature-related distributions. Groups of warm- and cold-water species were identified, with overlapping distributions between 48 and 588N. Recent fluctuations in ocean climate, from the warmest year on record in 2005 to one of the coldest in decades in 2008, provided ideal conditions to observe temperature-related interannual variability. The abundance and northwards extension of warm water species were significantly positively correlated with mean annual temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The cold water species showed no correlations with temperature/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) within the study region; however, if the 4 years of sampling that extended south to 398N were examined separately, there was a strong relationship between temperature/PDO and the southern extent of subarctic copepods. Under warm ocean conditions, the range overlap of the two groups will increase as warm water species extend northwards, causing an increase in copepod diversity. Since warm water species are generally smaller and nutritionally poorer, this has implications for higher trophic levels

Temporal and spatial variability of Oithona spp. abundance and phenology in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Ocean using the CPR data

The genus Oithona is considered the most ubiquitous and abundant copepod group in the world oceans. Although they generally make-up a lower proportion of the total copepod biomass, because of their high numerical abundance, preferential feeding for microzooplankton and motile preys, Oithona spp. plays an important role in microbial food webs and can provide a food source for other planktonic organisms. Thus, changes in Oithona spp. overall abundance and the timing of their annual maximum (i.e. phenology) can have important consequences for both energy flow within marine food webs and secondary production. Using the long term data (1954-2005) collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), the present study, investigates whether global climate warming my have affected the long term trends in Oithona spp. population abundance and phenology in relation to biotic and abiotic variables and over a wide latitudinal range and diverse oceanographic regions in the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Ocean.

Spatial variability of marine climate change impacts in the North Atlantic

There is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems in the North Atlantic, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by the warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a varying degree by the modification of oceanic currents, precipitation regimes and wind patterns. The biological manifestations of rising SST and oceanographic changes have variously taken the form of biogeographical, phenological, physiological and community changes. For example, during the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10 degree latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This geographical movement is much more pronounced than any documented terrestrial study, presumably due to advective processes playing an important role. Other research has shown that the plankton community in the North Sea has responded to changes in SST by adjusting their seasonality (in some cases a shift in seasonal cycles of over six weeks has been detected), but more importantly the response to climate warming varied between different functional groups and trophic levels, leading to mismatch. Therefore, while it has been documented that marine ecosystems in certain regions of the Atlantic have undergone some conspicuous changes over the last few decades it is not known whether this is a pan-oceanic homogenous response. Using these two most prominent responses and/or indicative signals of pelagic ecosystems to hydro-climatic change, changes in species phenology and the biogeographical movement of populations, we attempt to identify vulnerable regional areas in terms of particularly rapid and marked change.

Spatial and inter-decadal variability in plankton abundance and composition in the Northwest Atlantic (1958-2006)

The results of Continuous Plankton Recorder sampling in the NW Atlantic between 1958 and 2006 are presented for 11 plankton taxa in eight shelf and deep ocean regions. For shelf regions, phytoplankton abundances increased in the early 1990s, mainly in winter, as the contribution of Arctic-derived freshwater to the Newfoundland (NLS) and Scotian shelves (SS) increased. Farther east, in the sub-polar gyre, phytoplankton levels increased with rising temperatures during the 1990s and 2000s. In both areas, the changes can be explained by increased stratification. The increased influx of arctic water to the NLS in the 1990s was also probably directly responsible for the increased abundances of two arctic Calanus species (C. glacialis and C. hyperboreus) and indirectly responsible for the decreased abundance of Calanus I–IV (mainly C. finmarchicus), perhaps via changes in food composition. On the SS the arctic Calanus species increased in abundance in the 2000s, likely as the result of increased transport from the Arctic via the Gulf of St Lawrence. In the deep ocean, plankton seasonal cycles changed little over the decades and increasing phytoplankton levels in the 2000s were accompanied by increases in zooplankton abundance, suggesting bottom-up control. In shelf regions, phytoplankton increases in the 1990s were in winter and Calanus I–IV appeared earlier in spring than in previous decades. Zooplankton levels generally did not change overall however, perhaps because the species examined were mainly inactive during winter.

Decadal variability in biogeochemical models: Comparison with a 50-year ocean colour dataset

Assessing the skill of biogeochemical models to hindcast past variability is challenging, yet vital in order to assess their ability to predict biogeochemical change. However, the validation of decadal variability is limited by the sparsity of consistent, long-term biological datasets. The Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI) product from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey, which has been sampling the North Atlantic since 1948, is an example of such a dataset. Converting the PCI to chlorophyll values using SeaWiFS data allows a direct comparison with model output. Here we validate decadal variability in chlorophyll from the GFDL TOPAZ model. The model demonstrates skill at reproducing interannual variability, but cannot simulate the regime shifts evident in the PCI data. Comparison of the model output, data and climate indices highlights under-represented processes that it may be necessary to include in future biogeochemical models in order to accurately simulate decadal variability in ocean ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal variability in Scotian Shelf zooplankton communities

Zooplankton are indicators of the response of marine ecosystems to environmental variability. The relationships between zooplankton communities on the Scotian Shelf and hydrographic and geographic regions of the Scotian Shelf in the 1990s and 2000s were described using complementary data sets, each resolving different space and time scales. The Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program (AZMP) sampled Scotian Shelf zooplankton from the whole water column twice per year at stations along three cross-shelf transects and semi-monthly at a fixed station on the inshore central shelf, while Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples were collected from near-surface waters approximately monthly on an along-shelf transect. Variability patterns were compared among these three data sets to identify robust spatial and interannual trends. Stations were clustered based on taxonomic composition, and spatial clusters were compared to hydrographic boundaries and bathymetry to determine whether temporal changes in community composition were driven by changes in water mass distributions on the shelf. This project identifies zooplankton community and abundance shifts that may affect fish recruitment in the northwest Atlantic and contributes to development of ecosystem-based fisheries management on the Scotian Shelf.

Long-term variability and environmental preferences of calycophoran siphonophores in the Bay of Villefranche (North-Western Mediterranean)

Long-term variability of the main calycophoran siphonophores was investigated between 1974 and 1999 in a coastal station in the north-western Mediterranean. The data were collected at weekly frequency using a macroplankton net (680 μm mesh size) adapted to quantitatively sample delicate gelatinous plankton. A 3-year collection (1967–1969) of siphonophores from offshore waters using the same methodology showed that the patterns of variability observed inshore were representative of siphonophores’ changes at a regional scale. The aims of the study were: (i) to investigate the patterns of variability that characterised the dominant calycophoran species and assemblages; (ii) to identify the environmental optima that were associated with a significant increase in the dominant siphonophore species and (iii) to verify the influence of hydroclimatic variability on long-term changes of siphonophores. Our results showed that during nearly 3 decades the standing stock of calycophoran siphonophores did not show any significant change, with the annual maximum usually recorded in spring as a result of high densities of the dominant species Lensia subtilis, Muggiaea kochi and Muggiaea atlantica. Nevertheless, major changes in community composition occurred within the calycophoran population. Since the middle 1980s, M. kochi, once the most dominant species, started to decrease allowing other species, the congeneric M. atlantica and Chelophyes appendiculata, to increasingly dominate in spring and summer–autumn, respectively. The comparison of environmental and biotic long-term trends suggests that the decrease of M. kochi was triggered by hydrological changes that occurred in the north-western Mediterranean under the forcing of large-scale climate oscillations. Salinity, water stratification and water temperature were the main hydroclimatic factors associated with a significant increase of siphonophores, different species showing different environmental preferences.

Spatial variability of the plankton trophic interaction in the North Sea: a new feature after the early 1970s

Traditionally, marine ecosystem structure was thought to be bottom-up controlled. In recent years, a number of studies have highlighted the importance of top-down regulation. Evidence is accumulating that the type of trophic forcing varies temporally and spatially, and an integrated view – considering the interplay of both types of control – is emerging. Correlations between time series spanning several decades of the abundances of adjacent trophic levels are conventionally used to assess the type of control: bottom-up if positive or top-down if this is negative. This approach implies averaging periods which might show time-varying dynamics and therefore can hide part of this temporal variability. Using spatially referenced plankton information extracted from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, this study addresses the potential dynamic character of the trophic structure at the planktonic level in the North Sea by assessing its variation over both temporal and spatial scales. Our results show that until the early-1970s a bottom-up control characterized the base of the food web across the whole North Sea, with diatoms having a positive and homogeneous effect on zooplankton filter-feeders. Afterwards, different regional trophic dynamics were observed, in particular a negative relationship between total phytoplankton and zooplankton was detected off the west coast of Norway and the Skagerrak as opposed to a positive one in the southern reaches. Our results suggest that after the early 1970s diatoms remained the main food source for zooplankton filter-feeders east of Orkney–Shetland and off Scotland, while in the east, from the Norwegian Trench to the German Bight, filter-feeders were mainly sustained by dinoflagellates.

Interannual variability of marine zooplankton and their environments: Within- and between-region comparisons

The work highlights the first Global Comparison of Zooplankton Time Series. ► Variation of the peak in abundance is affected by annual temperature anomalies. ► Results show no global-scale synchrony in zooplankton time-series. ► There are spatial autocorrelations over substantial distances (1000–3000 km). ► There remains considerable uncertainty about the relative causes of shifts in distributions.

Microbial spatial variability: An example from the Celtic Sea

In July 2004, dominant populations of microbial ultraplankton (<5 μm), in the surface of the Celtic Sea (between UK and Eire), were repeatedly mapped using flow cytometry, at 1.5 km resolution over a region of diameter 100 km. The numerically dominant representatives of all basic functional types were enumerated including one group of phototrophic bacteria (Syn), two groups of phytoplankton (PP, NP), three groups of heterotrophic bacterioplankton (HB) and the regionally dominant group of heterotrophic protists (HP). The distributions of all organisms showed strong spatial variability with little relation to variability in physical fields such as salinity and temperature. Furthermore, there was little agreement between distributions of different organisms. The only linear correlation consistently explaining more than 50% of the variance between any pairing of the organism groups enumerated is between two different groups of HB. Specifically, no linear, or non-linear, relationship is found between any pairings of SYB, PP or HB groups with their protist predators HP. Looking for multiple dependencies, factor analysis reveals three groupings: Syn, PP and low nucleic acid content HB (LNA); high nucleic acid content HB (HNA); HP and NP. Even the manner in which the spatial variability of Syn, PP and HB abundance varies as a function of lengthscale (represented by a semivariogram) differs significantly from that for HP. In summary, although all microbial planktonic groups enumerated are present and numerically dominant throughout the region studied, at face value the relationships between them seem weak. Nevertheless, the behaviour of a simple, illustrative ecological model, with strongly interacting phototrophs and heterotrophs, with stochastic forcing, is shown to be consistent with the observed poor correlations and differences in how spatial variability varies with lengthscale. Thus, our study suggests that a comparison of microbial abundances alone may not discern strong underlying trophic interactions. Specific knowledge of these processes, in particular grazing, will be required to explain the causes of the observed microbial spatial variability and its resulting consequences for the functioning of the ecosystem.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.