Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

The biodiscovery potential of marine bacteria: an investigation of phylogeny and function

A collection of marine bacteria isolated from a temperate coastal zone has been screened in a programme of biodiscovery. A total of 34 enzymes with biotechnological potential were screened in 374 isolates of marine bacteria. Only two enzymes were found in all isolates while the majority of enzyme activities were present in a smaller proportion of the isolates. A cluster analysis demonstrated no significant correlation between taxonomy and enzyme function. However, there was evidence of co-occurrence of some enzyme activity in the same isolate. In this study marine Proteobacteria had a higher complement of enzymes with biodiscovery potential than Actinobacteria; this contrasts with the terrestrial environment where the Actinobacteria phylum is a proven source of enzymes with important industrial applications. In addition, a number of novel enzyme functions were more abundant in this marine culture collection than would be expected on the basis of knowledge from terrestrial bacteria. There is a strong case for future investigation of marine bacteria as a source for biodiscovery.