Relationships between North Atlantic salmon, plankton and hydroclimatic change in the Northeast Atlantic

The abundance of wild salmon (Salmo salar) in the North Atlantic has declined markedly since the late 1980s as a result of increased marine mortality that coincided with a marked rise in sea temperature in oceanic foraging areas. There is substantial evidence to show that temperature governs the growth, survival, and maturation of salmon during their marine migrations through either direct or indirect effects. In an earlier study (2003), long-term changes in three trophic levels (salmon, zooplankton, and phytoplankton) were shown to be correlated significantly with sea surface temperature (SST) and northern hemisphere temperature (NHT). A sequence of trophic changes ending with a stepwise decline in the total nominal catch of North Atlantic salmon (regime shift in ∼1986/1987) was superimposed on a trend to a warmer dynamic regime. Here, the earlier study is updated with catch and abundance data to 2010, confirming earlier results and detecting a new abrupt shift in ∼1996/1997. Although correlations between changes in salmon, plankton, and temperature are reinforced, the significance of the correlations is reduced because the temporal autocorrelation of time-series substantially increased due to a monotonic trend in the time-series, probably related to global warming. This effect may complicate future detection of effects of climate change on natural systems.

A new procedure to optimize the selection of groups in a classification tree

Agglomerative cluster analyses encompass many techniques, which have been widely used in various fields of science. In biology, and specifically ecology, datasets are generally highly variable and may contain outliers, which increase the difficulty to identify the number of clusters. Here we present a new criterion to determine statistically the optimal level of partition in a classification tree. The criterion robustness is tested against perturbated data (outliers) using an observation or variable with values randomly generated. The technique, called Random Simulation Test (RST), is tested on (1) the well-known Iris dataset [Fisher, R.A., 1936. The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems. Ann. Eugenic. 7, 179–188], (2) simulated data with predetermined numbers of clusters following Milligan and Cooper [Milligan, G.W., Cooper, M.C., 1985. An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set. Psychometrika 50, 159–179] and finally (3) is applied on real copepod communities data previously analyzed in Beaugrand et al. [Beaugrand, G., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J.A., Reid, P.C., 2002. Diversity of calanoid copepods in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas: species associations and biogeography. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232, 179–195]. The technique is compared to several standard techniques. RST performed generally better than existing algorithms on simulated data and proved to be especially efficient with highly variable datasets.

Volcanic ash fuels anomalous plankton bloom in subarctic northeast Pacific

Using multiple lines of evidence, we demonstrate that volcanic ash deposition in August 2008 initiated one of the largest phytoplankton blooms observed in the subarctic North Pacific. Unusually widespread transport from a volcanic eruption in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska deposited ash over much of the subarctic NE Pacific, followed by large increases in satellite chlorophyll. Surface ocean pCO2, pH, and fluorescence reveal that the bloom started a few days after ashfall. Ship-based measurements showed increased dominance by diatoms. This evidence points toward fertilization of this normally iron-limited region by ash, a relatively new mechanism proposed for iron supply to the ocean. The observations do not support other possible mechanisms. Extrapolation of the pCO2 data to the area of the bloom suggests a modest ∼0.01 Pg carbon export from this event, implying that even large-scale iron fertilization at an optimum time of year is not very efficient at sequestering atmospheric CO2.

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales

Pronounced changes in fauna, extending from the English Channel in the south to the Barents Sea in the north-east and off Greenland in the north-west, have occurred in the late 1920s, the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. We attribute these events to exchanges of subarctic and subtropical water masses in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, associated with changes in the strength and extent of the subpolar gyre. These exchanges lead to variations in the influence exerted by the subarctic or Lusitanian biomes on the intermediate faunistic zone in the north-eastern Atlantic. This strong and persistent bottom-up bio-physical link is demonstrated using a numerical ocean general circulation model and data on four trophically connected levels in the food chain – phytoplankton, zooplankton, blue whiting, and pilot whales. The plankton data give a unique basin-scale depiction of these changes, and a long pilot whale record from the Faroe Islands offers an exceptional temporal perspective over three centuries. Recent advances in simulating the dynamics of the subpolar gyre suggests a potential for predicting the distribution of the main faunistic zones in the north-eastern Atlantic a few years into the future, which might facilitate a more rational management of the commercially important fisheries in this region.

Macrophysiology of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic Ocean

Copepods represent the major part of the dry weight of the mesozooplankton in pelagic ecosystems and therefore have a central role in the secondary production of the North Atlantic Ocean. The calanoid copepod species Calanus finmarchicus is the main large copepod in subarctic waters of the North Atlantic, dominating the dry weight of the mesozooplankton in regions such as the northern North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The objective of this work was to investigate the relationships between both the fundamental and realised niches of C. finmarchicus in order to better understand the future influence of global climate change on the abundance, the spatial distribution and the phenology of this key-structural species. Based on standardised Principal Component Analyses (PCAs), a macroecological approach was applied to determine factors affecting the spatial distribution of C. finmarchicus and to characterise its realised niche. Second, an ecophysiological model was used to calculate the Potential Egg Production Rate (PEPR) of C. finmarchicus and the centre of its fundamental niche. Relationships between the two niches were then investigated by correlation analysis. We found a close relationship between the fundamental and realised niches of C. finmarchicus at spatial, monthly and decadal scales. While the species is at the centre of its niche in the subarctic gyre, our joint macroecological and macrophysiological analyses show that it is at the edge of its niche in the North Sea, making the species in this region more vulnerable to temperature changes.

Genetic analysis of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples

Genetic analysis of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples is enabling greater taxonomic resolution and the study of plankton population structure. Here, we present some results from the genetic analysis of CPR samples collected in the North Sea and north-eastern Atlantic that reveal the impacts of climate on benthic-pelagic coupling and the food web. We show that pronounced changes in the North Sea meroplankton are related to an increased abundance and spatial distribution of the larvae of the benthic echinoderm, Echinocardium cordatum. Key stages of reproduction in E. cordatum, gametogenesis and spawning, are influenced by winter and spring sea temperature (January-May). A stepwise increase in sea temperature after 1987, which has created warmer conditions earlier in the year, together with increased summer phytoplankton, may benefit the reproduction and survival of this benthic species. Competition between the larvae of E. cordatum and other holozooplanlcton taxa may now be altering the trophodynamics of the summer pelagic ecosystem. In the north-eastern Atlantic the genetic analysis of fish larvae sampled by the CPR has revealed an unprecedented increase in the abundance of juvenile snake pipefish, Entelurus aequoreiis since 2002. We argue that increased sea surface temperatures in winter and spring when the eggs of E. aqueoreus, which are brooded by the male, are developing and the young larvae are growing in the plankton are a likely cause. The increased abundance of this species in Atlantic and adjacent European seas already appears to be influencing the marine food web.

Decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic water inflow in the North Sea between 1958-2003: impacts on temperature and phytoplankton populations

The circulation of Atlantic water along the European continental slope, in particular the inflow into the North Sea, influences North Sea water characteristics with consequent changes in the environment affecting plankton community dynamics. The long-term effect of fluctuating oceanographic conditions oil the North Sea, pelagic ecosystem is assessed. It is shown that (i) there are similar regime shifts in the inflow through the northern North Sea and in Sea, Surface Temperature, (ii) long-term phytoplankton trends are influenced by the inflow only in some North Sea regions, and (iii) the spatial variability in chemicophysical and biological parameters highlight the influence of smaller scale processes.

Effects of environmental conditions on the seasonal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the North Sea

We study the spatial and seasonal variability of phytoplankton biomass (as phytoplankton color) in relation to the environmental conditions in the North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. By using only environmental fields and location as predictor variables we developed a nonparametric model (generalized additive model) to empirically explore how key environmental factors modulate the spatio-temporal patterns of the seasonal cycle of algal biomass as well as how these relate to the ,1988 North Sea regime shift. Solar radiation, as manifest through changes of sea surface temperature (SST), was a key factor not only in the seasonal cycle but also as a driver of the shift. The pronounced increase in SST and in wind speed after the 1980s resulted in an extension of the season favorable for phytoplankton growth. Nutrients appeared to be unimportant as explanatory variables for the observed spatio-temporal pattern, implying that they were not generally limiting factors. Under the new climatic regime the carrying capacity of the whole system has been increased and the southern North Sea, where the environmental changes have been more pronounced, reached a new maximum.

Is there a decline in marine phytoplankton?

Phytoplankton account for approximately 50% of global primary production, form the trophic base of nearly all marine ecosystems, are fundamental in trophic energy transfer and have key roles in climate regulation, carbon sequestration and oxygen production. Boyce et al.1 compiled a chlorophyll index by combining in situ chlorophyll and Secchi disk depth measurements that spanned a more than 100-year time period and showed a decrease in marine phytoplankton biomass of approximately 1% of the global median per year over the past century. Eight decades of data on phytoplankton biomass collected in the North Atlantic by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey2, however, show an increase in an index of chlorophyll (Phytoplankton Colour Index) in both the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic basins3, 4, 5, 6, 7 (Fig. 1), and other long-term time series, including the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT)8, the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS)8 and the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI)9 also indicate increased phytoplankton biomass over the last 20–50 years. These findings, which were not discussed by Boyce et al.1, are not in accordance with their conclusions and illustrate the importance of using consistent observations when estimating long-term trends.