Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

Exploiting satellite earth observation to quantify current global oceanic DMS flux and its future climate sensitivity

We used coincident Envisat RA2 and AATSR temperature and wind speed data from 2008/2009 to calculate the global net sea-air flux of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which we estimate to be 19.6 Tg S a21. Our monthly flux calculations are compared to open ocean eddy correlation measurements of DMS flux from 10 recent cruises, with a root mean square difference of 3.1 lmol m22 day21. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied temperature, salinity, surface wind speed, and aqueous DMS concentration, using fixed global changes as well as CMIP5 model output. The range of DMS flux in future climate scenarios is discussed. The CMIP5 model predicts a reduction in surface wind speed and we estimate that this will decrease the global annual sea-air flux of DMS by 22% over 25 years. Concurrent changes in temperature, salinity, and DMS concentration increase the global flux by much smaller amounts. The net effect of all CMIP5 modelled 25 year predictions was a 19% reduction in global DMS flux. 25 year DMS concentration changes had significant regional effects, some positive (Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific) and some negative (isolated regions along the Equator and in the Indian Ocean). Using satellite-detected coverage of coccolithophore blooms, our estimate of their contribution to North Atlantic DMS emissions suggests that the coccolithophores contribute only a small percentage of the North Atlantic annual flux estimate, but may be more important in the summertime and in the northeast Atlantic.

Responses in Arctic marine carbon cycle processes: conceptual scenarios & implications for ecosystem.

The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest changing oceans, plays an important role in global carbon cycling and yet is a particularly challenging ocean to study. Hence, observations tend to be relatively sparse in both space and time. How the Arctic functions, geophysically, but also ecologically, can have significant consequences for the internal cycling of carbon, and subsequently influence carbon export, atmospheric CO2 uptake and food chain productivity. Here we assess the major carbon pools and associated processes, specifically summarizing the current knowledge of each of these processes in terms of data availability and ranges of rates and values for four geophysical Arctic Ocean domains originally described by Carmack & Wassmann (2006): inflow shelves, which are Pacific-influenced and Atlantic-influenced; interior, river-influenced shelves; and central basins. We attempt to bring together knowledge of the carbon cycle with the ecosystem within each of these different geophysical settings, in order to provide specialist information in a holistic context. We assess the current state of models and how they can be improved and/or used to provide assessments of the current and future functioning when observational data are limited or sparse. In doing so, we highlight potential links in the physical oceanographic regime, primary production and the flow of carbon within the ecosystem that will change in the future. Finally, we are able to highlight priority areas for research, taking a holistic pan-Arctic approach.

Air-sea exchange of methanol and acetone during HiWinGS: Estimation of air phase, water phase gas transfer velocities

The air-sea fluxes of methanol and acetone were measured concurrently using a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) with the eddy covariance (EC) technique during the High Wind Gas Exchange Study (HiWinGS) in 2013. The seawater concentrations of these compounds were also measured twice daily with the same PTR-MS coupled to a membrane inlet. Dissolved concentrations near the surface ranged from 7 to 28 nM for methanol and from 3 to 9 nM for acetone. Both gases were consistently transported from the atmosphere to the ocean as a result of their low sea surface saturations. The largest influxes were observed in regions of high atmospheric concentrations and strong winds (up to 25 m s(-1)). Comparison of the total air-sea transfer velocity of these two gases (K-a), along with the in situ sensible heat transfer rate, allows us to constrain the individual gas transfer velocity in the air phase (k(a)) and water phase (k(w)). Among existing parameterizations, the scaling of k(a) from the COARE model is the most consistent with our observations. The k(w) we estimated is comparable to the tangential (shear driven) transfer velocity previously determined from measurements of dimethyl sulfide. Lastly, we estimate the wet deposition of methanol and acetone in our study region and evaluate the lifetimes of these compounds in the surface ocean and lower atmosphere with respect to total (dry plus wet) atmospheric deposition.

Southern Annular Mode and westerly-wind-driven changes in Indian-Atlantic exchange mechanisms

The dynamical link between the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains poorly understood. This partly arises from the complex Agulhas leakage, which occurs via rings, cyclones, and non-eddy flux. Hindcast simulations suggest that leakage has recently increased but have not decomposed this signal into its constituent mechanisms. Here these are isolated in a realistic ocean model. Increases in simulated leakage are attributed to stronger eddy and non-eddy-driven transports, and a strong warming and salinification, especially within Agulhas rings. Variability in both regimes is associated with strengthening Indian Ocean westerly winds, reflecting an increasingly positive Southern Annular Mode. While eddy and non-eddy flux signals are tied through turbulent eddy dissipation, the ratio between the two varies decadally. Consequently, while altimetry suggests a recent increase in retroflection turbulence and implied leakage, non-eddy flux may also play a significant role in modulating the leakage AMOC connection.

Complex coastal oceanographic fields can be described by universal multifractals

Characterization of chlorophyll and sea surface temperature (SST) structural heterogeneity using their scaling properties can provide a useful tool to estimate the relative importance of key physical and biological drivers. Seasonal, annual, and also instantaneous spatial distributions of chlorophyll and SST, determined from satellite measurements, in seven different coastal and shelf-sea regions around the UK have been studied. It is shown that multifractals provide a very good approximation to the scaling properties of the data: in fact, the multifractal scaling function is well approximated by universal multifractal theory. The consequence is that all of the statistical information about data structure can be reduced to being described by two parameters. It is further shown that also bathymetry scales in the studied regions as multifractal. The SST and chlorophyll multifractal structures are then explained as an effect of bathymetry and turbulence.

An assessment of phytoplankton primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean from satellite ocean color/in situ chlorophyll-abased models

We investigated 32 net primary productivity (NPP) models by assessing skills to reproduce integrated NPP in the Arctic Ocean. The models were provided with two sources each of surface chlorophyll-a concentration (chlorophyll), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed-layer depth (MLD). The models were most sensitive to uncertainties in surface chlorophyll, generally performing better with in situ chlorophyll than with satellite-derived values. They were much less sensitive to uncertainties in PAR, SST, and MLD, possibly due to relatively narrow ranges of input data and/or relatively little difference between input data sources. Regardless of type or complexity, most of the models were not able to fully reproduce the variability of in situ NPP, whereas some of them exhibited almost no bias (i.e., reproduced the mean of in situ NPP). The models performed relatively well in low-productivity seasons as well as in sea ice-covered/deep-water regions. Depth-resolved models correlated more with in situ NPP than other model types, but had a greater tendency to overestimate mean NPP whereas absorption-based models exhibited the lowest bias associated with weaker correlation. The models performed better when a subsurface chlorophyll-a maximum (SCM) was absent. As a group, the models overestimated mean NPP, however this was partly offset by some models underestimating NPP when a SCM was present. Our study suggests that NPP models need to be carefully tuned for the Arctic Ocean because most of the models performing relatively well were those that used Arctic-relevant parameters.

Decadal reanalysis of biogeochemical indicators and fluxes in the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem

In this paper we present the first decadal reanalysis simulation of the biogeochemistry of the North West European shelf, along with a full evaluation of its skill and value. An error-characterized satellite product for chlorophyll was assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble Kalman filter. The results showed that the reanalysis improved the model predictions of assimilated chlorophyll in 60% of the study region. Model validation metrics showed that the reanalysis had skill in matching a large dataset of in situ observations for ten ecosystem variables. Spearman rank correlations were significant and higher than 0.7 for physical-chemical variables (temperature, salinity, oxygen), ∼0.6 for chlorophyll and nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate), and significant, though lower in value, for partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (∼0.4). The reanalysis captured the magnitude of pH and ammonia observations, but not their variability. The value of the reanalysis for assessing environmental status and variability has been exemplified in two case studies. The first shows that between 340,000-380,000 km2 of shelf bottom waters were oxygen deficient potentially threatening bottom fishes and benthos. The second application confirmed that the shelf is a net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the total amount of uptake varies between 36-46 Tg C yr−1 at a 90% confidence level. These results indicate that the reanalysis output dataset can inform the management of the North West European shelf ecosystem, in relation to eutrophication, fishery, and variability of the carbon cycle.

Factors governing the deep ventilation of the Red Sea

A variety of data based on hydrographic measurements, satellite observations, reanalysis databases, and meteorological observations are used to explore the interannual variability and factors governing the deep water formation in the northern Red Sea. Historical and recent hydrographic data consistently indicate that the ventilation of the near-bottom layer in the Red Sea is a robust feature of the thermohaline circulation. Dense water capable to reach the bottom layers of the Red Sea can be regularly produced mostly inside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. Occasionally, during colder than usual winters, deep water formation may also take place over coastal areas in the northernmost end of the open Red Sea just outside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. However, the origin as well as the amount of deep waters exhibit considerable interannual variability depending not only on atmospheric forcing but also on the water circulation over the northern Red Sea. Analysis of several recent winters shows that the strength of the cyclonic gyre prevailing in the northernmost part of the basin can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or moderate the winter surface cooling. Upwelling associated with periods of persistent gyre circulation lowers the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme heat loss by the sea surface. In addition, the occasional persistence of the cyclonic gyre feeds the surface layers of the northern Red Sea with nutrients, considerably increasing the phytoplankton biomass.

Monsoon oscillations regulate fertility of the Red Sea

Tropical ocean ecosystems are predicted to become warmer, more saline, and less fertile in a future Earth. The Red Sea, one of the warmest and most saline environments in the world, may afford insights into the function of the tropical ocean ecosystem in a changing planet. We show that the concentration of chlorophyll and the duration of the phytoplankton growing season in the Red Sea are controlled by the strength of the winter Arabian monsoon (through horizontal advection of fertile waters from the Indian Ocean). Furthermore, and contrary to expectation, in the last decade (1998–2010) the winter Red Sea phytoplankton biomass has increased by 75% during prolonged positive phases of the Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index. A new mechanism is reported, revealing the synergy of monsoon and climate in regulating Red Sea greenness.