North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.

Can the subtropical North Atlantic permanent thermocline be observed from space?

The analysis of remotely sensed altimeter data and in situ measurements shows that ERS 2 radar can monitor the ocean permanent thermocline from space. The remotely sensed sea level anomaly data account for similar to 2/3 of the temperature variance or vertical displacement of isotherms at a depth of similar to 550 m in the Subtropical North Atlantic Ocean near 32.5 degree N. This depth corresponds closely to the region of maximum temperature gradient in the permanent thermocline where near semi-annual internal vertical displacements reach 200 to 300 m. The gradient of the altimeter sea level anomaly data correlates well with measured ocean currents to a depth of 750 m. It is shown that observations from space can account for similar to 3/4 of the variance of ocean currents measured in situ in the permanent thermocline over a 2-y period. The magnification of the permanent thermocline displacement with respect to the displacement of the sea surface was determined as - x650 and gives a measure of the ratio of barotropic to baroclinic decay scale of geostrophic current with depth. The overall results are used to interpret an eight year altimeter data tie series in the Subtropical North Atlantic at 32.5 degree N which shows a dominant wave or eddy period near 200 days, rather than semi-annual and increases in energy propagating westward in 1995 (west of 25 degree W). The effects of rapid North Atlantic Oscillation climate change on ocean circulation are discussed. The altimeter data for the Atlantic were Fourier analysed. It is shown how the annual and semi-annual components relate to the seasonal maximum cholorophyll-a SeaWiFS signal in tropical and equatorial regions due to the lifting of the thermocline caused by seasonally varying ocean currents forced by wind stress.

Ocean structure and climate (Eastern North Atlantic): in situ measurement and remote sensing

Structure and climate of the east North Atlantic are appraised within a framework of in situ measurement and altimeter remote sensing from 0 degree - 60 degree N. Long zonal expendable bathythermograph /conductivity-temperature-depth probe sections show repeating internal structure in the North Atlantic Ocean. Drogued buoys and subsurface floats give westward speeds for eddies and wavelike structure. Records from longterm current meter deployments give the periodicity of the repeating structure. Eddy and wave characteristics of period, size or wavelength, westward propagation speed, and mean currents are derived at 20 degree N, 26 degree N, 32.5 degree N, 36 degree N and 48 degree N from in situ measurements in the Atlantic Ocean. It is shown that ocean wave and eddy-like features measured in situ correlate with altimeter structure. Interior ocean wave crests or cold dome-like temperature structures are cyclonic and have negative surface altimeter anomalies; mesoscale internal wave troughs or warm structures are anticyclonic and have positive surface height anomalies. Along the Eastern Boundary, flows and temperature climate are examined in terms of sla and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Longterm changes in ocean climate and circulation are derived from sla data. It is shown that longterm changes from 1992 to 2002 in the North Atlantic Current and the Subtropical Gyre transport determined from sla data correlate with winter NAO Index such that maximum flow conditions occurred in 1995 and 2000. Minimum circulation conditions occurred between 1996-1998. Years of extreme negative winter NAO Index result in enhanced poleward flow along the Eastern Boundary and anomalous winter warming along the West European Continental Slope as was measured in 1990, 1996, 1998 and 2001.

Genetic structure of whiting (Merlangius merlangus) in the north east Atlantic and adjacent waters

Accurate identification of stock boundaries is essential for efficient fisheries management, hence the present study focused on the genetic structure of whiting. To this aim, 488 individuals collected from the southern Bay of Biscay to the southern Norwegian coast were genotyped using seven microsatellites. A low level of genetic structuring was detected in Atlantic waters since only the Bay of Biscay differentiated from more northern samples. The lack of genetic structure along the western margin of the British Isles is consistent with a high level of passive transport of pelagic eggs and larvae due to the combined influence of the North Atlantic Current and the Shelf Edge Current. High levels of dispersal could also occur between the western British Isles and the North Sea through both the branching of the North Atlantic Current into the northern North Sea and from the residual current flowing from the English Channel to the Southern Bight. In contrast, a significant genetic structure was identified within the North Sea, and this may be associated with the complex oceanography of this basin and retention systems reducing larval dispersal. In addition, considering also genetic, phenotypic and tag-recapture data collected on whiting, a learned homing behaviour of adults toward spawning areas may be hypothesised.

Phytoplankton change in the North Atlantic

A marked increase in global temperature over the last century was confirmed by the second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we report significant positive and negative linear trends from 1948 to 1995 in phytoplankton measured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea that might reflect a response to changing climate on a timescale of decades. Spreading of unusually cold waters from the Arctic might have contributed to the decline in phytoplankton north of 59o N. Further south, phytoplankton season length and abundance seem to have increased.

Exceptional abundance of the snake pipefish (Entelurus aequoreus) in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean

Pipefish (Syngnathidae) have occurred with unprecedented frequency in Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples to the west of the British Isles from 2003 to 2005. Identification by mtDNA sequencing established that they were snake pipefish, Entelurus aequoreus. The geographical range of the records were from the outer continental shelf of the Celtic Sea and north-west of Ireland to the mid-Atlantic Ridge between 40° and 57°N, with the greatest abundance near the shelf edge and adjacent oceanic waters south of Ireland and west of Brittany. There were records in every month from February to November but most were in late spring and summer. A proposed mechanism for the increase in abundance of the species is that recent climate change has had beneficial impacts on the reproduction of adults and the survival of larvae and juveniles.

Variations in the distributions of the Centropages chierchiae and Temora stylifera (Copepoda: Calanoida) in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean and western european shelf waters.

Centropages chierchiae and Temora stylifera occurred rarely in the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey in the Bay of Biscay, Celtic Sea, and English Channel before 1988. By 2000 they were found frequently and in abundance. The seasonal cycles of abundance of these species differ, C. chierchiae occurring mainly in the summer while T. stylifera was found most frequently in late autumn or winter towards the northern limits of its distribution. The increase in abundance of both species is related to temperature. However, in the years when it was found in the samples, the frequency of occurrence of C. chierchiae was correlated positively with the strength of the shelf edge current and negatively with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) while the reverse was true for T. stylifera.

North Sea Ecosystem: Status Report

The North Sea is a dynamic large marine ecosystem which is bordered by a dense coastal population, contains a productive oil and gas province, has a dense shipping network and has one of the most productive fisheries in the world. An assessment of the state of health of the North Sea was initiated in 1987 as part of a developing series of international initiatives at Ministerial level to address concerns over the impact of these activities on the marine ecosystem. Four North Sea Ministerial Conferences (1984, 1987, 1990, 1995) and an Intermediate Ministerial Meeting (1993) have been held to date to develop a harmonized approach to the sustainable management of the North Sea. In 1988 at the request of Ministers a North Sea Task Force was established to co-ordinate work leading to the production of a Quality Status Report (QSR) on the North Sea in December 1993. In recognition of the large geographical and ecological diversity exhibited, a sub-regional approach was adopted and a total of 13 sub-regional assessment reports were produced to a common protocol. The Task Force established a five-year plan to co-ordinate research, monitoring and modelling and other special topics in the preparations for the QSR. As part of this exercise a ‘Monitoring Master Plan’ was drawn up to provide for the first time reliable spatial information on the distribution of chemical contaminants and biological effects throughout the North Sea. The Task Force was a unique structure in international collaboration with a fixed remit that ended in December 1993. It was successful in bringing together many diverse organisations with interests in the North Sea and co-ordinated to a tight timetable the production of the QSR. The experiences gained are now being applied to the whole north east Atlantic under a new OSPAR Convention and have wide application to other Large Marine Ecosystems.

An overview of plankton ecology in the North Sea

The purpose of this report is to give an overview of plankton ecology in the North Sea, and the processes that effect it, as derived from current research. The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation has extensive data for the North Sea area, and other sources have also been used to provide information for this report. Shortfalls in current research have also been highlighted. The information contained herein is to be contributed towards an information base for the Strategic Environmental Assessment. The North Sea is an extension of the North Atlantic that has an area of 574,980 km2. The deepest area is off the coast of Norway (660m), with a number of shallow areas, such as the Dogger Bank (15m). The North Sea represents a large source of hydrocarbons that have been exploited since the early 1970s. The aim of this study is to provide the Department of Trade and Industry with biological data on the planktonic community of the North Sea, as a contribution towards the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA 2). An overview of phyto- and zoo- plankton community composition, plankton blooms, Calanus, mero-, pico- and megaplankton, sensitivity to disturbance / contamination, phytodetritus and vertical fluxes and the resting stages of phytoplankton is made using the results of the survey database. Additional published literature has also been used, and gaps in available data have been highlighted. 1.3 The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey provides a unique long-term dataset of plankton abundance in the North Atlantic and North Sea (Warner and Hays 1994). The survey has been running for almost 70 years, using ‘ships of opportunity’ to tow CPRs on regular, and incidental routes, sampling at a depth of 10 m. Each sample represents 18 km of tow and approximately 3 m3 of filtered seawater. Over 400 taxa of plankton are routinely identified by a team of taxonomists. The samples are also compared to colour charts to give an indication of ‘greenness’, which provides a visual index of chlorophyll value. CPRs have been towed for over 4 million nautical miles, accumulating almost 200,000 samples. The design of the CPR has remained virtually unchanged since sampling started, thus providing a consistency of sampling that provides good historical comparisons. By systematically monitoring the plankton over a period, changes in abundance and long term trends can be distinguished. From this baseline data, inferences can be made, particularly concerning climate change and potentialanthropogenic impacts.