Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Broad-scale patterns of sex ratios in Patella spp.: a comparison of range edge and central range populations in the British Isles and Portugal

Sex change, or sequential hermaphroditism, occurs in the plant and animal kingdoms and often determines a predominance of the first sex. Our aim was to explore changes in sex ratios within the range of the species studied: Patella vulgata and Patella depressa. The broad-scale survey of sex with size of limpets covered a range of latitudes from Zambujeira do Mar (southern Portugal) to the English Channel. Indirect evidence was found for the occurrence of protandry in P. vulgata populations from the south of England, with females predominating in larger size-classes; cumulative frequency distributions of males and females were different; sex ratios were biased towards males and smallest sizes of males were smaller than the smallest sizes of females. In contrast in Portugal females were found in most size-classes of P. vulgata. In P. depressa populations from the south coast of England and Portugal females were interspersed across most size-classes; size distributions of males and females and size at first maturity of males and females did not differ. P. depressa did, however, show some indications of the possibility of slight protandry occurring in Portugal. The test of sex ratio variation with latitude indicated that P. vulgata sex ratios might be involved in determining the species range limit, particularly at the equatorward limit since the likelihood of being male decreased from the south coast of England to southern Portugal. Thus at the southern range limit, sperm could be in short supply due to scarcity of males contributing to an Allee effect.

Broad-scale patterns of sex ratios in Patella spp.: a comparison of range edge and central range populations in the British Isles and Portugal

Sex change, or sequential hermaphroditism, occurs in the plant and animal kingdoms and often determines a predominance of the first sex. Our aim was to explore changes in sex ratios within the range of the species studied: Patella vulgata and Patella depressa. The broad-scale survey of sex with size of limpets covered a range of latitudes from Zambujeira do Mar (southern Portugal) to the English Channel. Indirect evidence was found for the occurrence of protandry in P. vulgata populations from the south of England, with females predominating in larger size-classes; cumulative frequency distributions of males and females were different; sex ratios were biased towards males and smallest sizes of males were smaller than the smallest sizes of females. In contrast in Portugal females were found in most size-classes of P. vulgata. In P. depressa populations from the south coast of England and Portugal females were interspersed across most size-classes; size distributions of males and females and size at first maturity of males and females did not differ. P. depressa did, however, show some indications of the possibility of slight protandry occurring in Portugal. The test of sex ratio variation with latitude indicated that P. vulgata sex ratios might be involved in determining the species range limit, particularly at the equatorward limit since the likelihood of being male decreased from the south coast of England to southern Portugal. Thus at the southern range limit, sperm could be in short supply due to scarcity of males contributing to an Allee effect.