From silk to satellite: half a century of ocean colour anomalies in the Northeast Atlantic

Changes in phytoplankton dynamics influence marine biogeochemical cycles, climate processes, and food webs, with substantial social and economic consequences. Large-scale estimation of phytoplankton biomass was possible via ocean colour measurements from two remote sensing satellites – the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS, 1979-1986) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, 1998-2010). Due to the large gap between the two satellite eras and differences in sensor characteristics, comparison of the absolute values retrieved from the two instruments remains challenging. Using a unique in situ ocean colour dataset that spans more than half a century, the two satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) eras are linked to assess concurrent changes in phytoplankton variability and bloom timing over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and North Sea. Results from this unique re-analysis reflect a clear increasing pattern of Chl-a, a merging of the two seasonal phytoplankton blooms producing a longer growing season and higher seasonal biomass, since the mid-1980s. The broader climate plays a key role in Chl-a variability as the ocean colour anomalies parallel the oscillations of the Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) since 1948.

Reply to comment: is climate change the most likely driver of range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters?

The comment by Votier et al. (2008) on our recently published article (Wynn et al. 2007) contains two main criticisms: (i) that our analytical approach is inappropriate and (ii) that we have failed to acknowledge other factors that may have contributed to the change in Balearic Shearwater numbers recorded throughout northwest European waters. We strongly disagree with both these criticisms.

Fine-scale nutrient and carbonate system dynamics around cold-water coral reefs in the northeast Atlantic.

Ocean acidification has been suggested as a serious threat to the future existence of cold-water corals (CWC). However, there are few fine-scale temporal and spatial datasets of carbonate and nutrients conditions available for these reefs, which can provide a baseline definition of extant conditions. Here we provide observational data from four different sites in the northeast Atlantic that are known habitats for CWC. These habitats differ by depth and by the nature of the coral habitat. At depths where CWC are known to occur across these sites the dissolved inorganic carbon ranged from 2088 to 2186 μmol kg−1, alkalinity ranged from 2299 to 2346 μmol kg−1, and aragonite Ω ranged from 1.35 to 2.44. At two sites fine-scale hydrodynamics caused increased variability in the carbonate and nutrient conditions over daily time-scales. The observed high level of variability must be taken into account when assessing CWC sensitivities to future environmental change.

Marine snow studies in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean: distribution, composition and role as a food source for migrating plankton

During a 25 d Lagrangian study in May and June 1990 in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, marine snow aggregates were collected using a novel water bottle, and the composition was determined microscopically. The aggregates contained a characteristic signature of a matrix of bacteria, cyanobacteria and autotrophic picoplankton with inter alia inclusions of the tintiniid Dictyocysta elegans and large pennate diatoms. The concentration of bacteria and cyanobacteria was much greater on the aggregates than when free-living by factors of 100 to 6000 and 3000 to 2 500 000, respectively, depending on depth. Various species of crustacean plankton and micronekton were collected, and the faecal pellets produced after capture were examined. These often contained the marine snow signature, indicating that these organisms had been consuming marine snow. In some cases, marine snow material appeared to dominate the diet. This implies a food-chain short cut wherby material, normally too small to be consumed by the mesozooplankton, and considered to constitute the diet of the microplankton can become part of the diet of organisms higher in the food-chain. The micronekton was dominated by the amphipod Themisto compressa, whose pellets also contained the marine snow signature. Shipboard incubation experiments with this species indicated that (1) it does consume marine snow, and (2) its gut-passage time is sufficiently long for material it has eaten in the upper water to be defecated at its day-time depth of several hundred meters. Plankton and micronekton were collected with nets to examine their vertical distribution and diel migration and to put into context the significance of the flux of material in the guts of migrants. “Gut flux” for the T. compressa population was calculated to be up to 2% of the flux measured simultaneously by drifting sediment traps and <5% when all migrants are considered. The in situ abundance and distribution of marine snow aggregates (>0.6 mm) was examined photographically. A sharp concentration peak was usually encountered in the depth range 40 to 80 m which was not associated with peaks of in situ fluorescence or attenuation but was just below or at the base of the upper mixed layer. The feeding behaviour of zooplankton and nekton may influence these concentration gradients to a considerable extent, and hence affect the flux due to passive settling of marine snow aggregates.

The future of the northeast Atlantic benthic flora in a high CO2 world

Seaweed and seagrass communities in the northeast Atlantic have been profoundly impacted by humans, and the rate of change is accelerating rapidly due to runaway CO2 emissions and mounting pressures on coastlines associated with human population growth and increased consumption of finite resources. Here, we predict how rapid warming and acidification are likely to affect benthic flora and coastal ecosystems of the northeast Atlantic in this century, based on global evidence from the literature as interpreted by the collective knowledge of the authorship. We predict that warming will kill off kelp forests in the south and that ocean acidification will remove maerl habitat in the north. Seagrasses will proliferate, and associated epiphytes switch from calcified algae to diatoms and filamentous species. Invasive species will thrive in niches liberated by loss of native species and spread via exponential development of artificial marine structures. Combined impacts of seawater warming, ocean acidification, and increased storminess may replace structurally diverse seaweed canopies, with associated calcified and noncalcified flora, with simple habitats dominated by noncalcified, turf-forming seaweeds.

Environmental variability and biodiversity of megabenthos on the Hebrides Terrace Seamount (Northeast Atlantic)

We present the first remotely operated vehicle investigation of megabenthic communities (1004-1695 m water depth) on the Hebrides Terrace Seamount (Northeast Atlantic). Conductivity-temperature-depth casts showed rapid light attenuation below the summit and an oceanographic regime on the flanks consistent with an internal tide, and high short-term variability in water temperature, salinity, light attenuation, aragonite and oxygen down to 1500 m deep. Minor changes in species composition (3-14%) were explained by changes in depth, substratum and oceanographic stability, whereas environmental variability explained substantially more variation in species richness (40-56%). Two peaks in species richness occurred, the first at 1300-1400 m where cooler Wyville Thomson Overflow Water (WTOW) mixes with subtropical gyre waters and the second at 1500-1600 m where WTOW mixes with subpolar mode waters. Our results suggest that internal tides, substrate heterogeneity and oceanographic interfaces may enhance biological diversity on this and adjacent seamounts in the Rockall Trough.

Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios

Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.